ATL: IRMA - Models

[Blinhart]

So the 0z GFS starts in 10 minutes or so. Wi the west shifts continue or will we see an east shift? Any thoughts??


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I am going with an east shift from all models, and the GFS missing the US completely to the east. CMC with a Carolina hit, and the ECMWF missing in the same fashion as the 12z earlier today.

Can only hope, that is true.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Here we go!

[AutoPenalti]

Wesh 2 met said all the models have shifted west and he's getting worried now. Thinks it could land somewhere in south florida and go up the coast.

When did he say that? Or where? Was he talking about the last runs or the ones that are compiling right now?

[Blinhart]

So the 0z GFS starts in 10 minutes or so. Wi the west shifts continue or will we see an east shift? Any thoughts??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

I'm going with further West, might even make it into the GoM for the really first time.

Even if it does go into gulf, what happens then? Would it still turn NE and go over Florida, or would it continue west?

Now I'm no professional or scientists but I think the NE turn won't happen until it is well in land, but I think there will be a turn to the NW sometime after the entrance into the GoM. I'm thinking along the Katrina/Rita/Andrew/Lili type of track.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[bamajammer4eva]

So the 0z GFS starts in 10 minutes or so. Wi the west shifts continue or will we see an east shift? Any thoughts??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

I'm going with further West, might even make it into the GoM for the really first time.

Even if it does go into gulf, what happens then? Would it still turn NE and go over Florida, or would it continue west?

I would think there has to be a point where the trough would just have little or no influence and the more Western high would take over steering and send it to Mexico.

[Steve]

It should follow the 18z ensembles in my opinion. If it hits, this will be 10 straight US Landfalls for the GFS.

[TheStormExpert]

Ridge looks weaker this run.

[WeatherHoon]

Maybe a hair south from the 18z so far.

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge looks weaker this run.

Yes OTS! Let's go!

I hope so.

A hair south from this afternoon and stronger.

[robbielyn]

So the 0z GFS starts in 10 minutes or so. Wi the west shifts continue or will we see an east shift? Any thoughts??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

I am going with an east shift from all models, and the GFS missing the US completely to the east. CMC with a Carolina hit, and the ECMWF missing in the same fashion as the 12z earlier today.

ok then. it's your story and your sticking to it.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Ridge getting stronger each frame

[WilmingtonSandbar]

That ridge is looking like it will recurve. We shall see.

[ConvergenceZone]

I also predict this run will have it escaping out to sea, following the EURO

[adam0983]

One person says the ridge is weaker and the next person says it is stronger im confused.

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 met said all the models have shifted west and he's getting worried now. Thinks it could land somewhere in south florida and go up the coast.

When did he say that? Or where? Was he talking about the last runs or the ones that are compiling right now?

He said it a few minutes ago. He had a map of 6 models and they are all pointing at Florida.They have been shifting west all day. He said it would not be a surprise if it lands in south Florida and goes north.

[storm4u]

It is a tad weaker

One person says the ridge is weaker and the next person says it is stronger im confused.

[AdamFirst]

One person says the ridge is weaker and the next person says it is stronger im confused.

Too many kneejerk reactions. Best option is to watch the runs and wait for promet/expert analysis.

[AutoPenalti]

One person says the ridge is weaker and the next person says it is stronger im confused.

Trend is stronger ridge in short term, Irma is a bit South of this afternoon.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

One person says the ridge is weaker and the next person says it is stronger im confused.

If you are talking about me, i was also saying that it looked weaker. Although it built back up at hour 42. This run now looks interesting.