ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nederlander]

is that a pinhole eye?

NO! Eye is 30nm across.

Good, thanks. Visually it appeared to be, my mistake for not looking at the data before posting.
Storm is bad enough.

Just look at radar.. Large eye

[ObsessedMiami]

Delete: duplicate post

[jasons2k]

Said it last night and I'll repeat - total disaster is unfolding for the Cape Coral area. I hope people got out.

[WeatherOrKnot]

How far from the center are Tropical Storm strength winds, and Hurricane force winds being experienced?

Clearly getting TS gusts in West Miami Dade if that tells you anything

Pretty quiet in western communities of PBC right now.

[ObsessedMiami]

How far from the center are Tropical Storm strength winds, and Hurricane force winds being experienced?

Clearly getting TS gusts in West Miami Dade and increasing in frequency if that tells you anything

[GCANE]

Just looked at 200mb vort at CIMSS.
Ian is pushing back the PV streamers to its west, making room for longer term intensification.

This was from a few nights ago, but I was wondering what causes those PV streamers out there in the GOM like that? Great to see you back GCANE!

Currently, its an unexpected turn of events but I wouldn't bet on a CAT5 landfall just due to the incredible rarity of US CAT5 LFs and the slow movement of Ian (and heading). Even if its one now. I give it 15% chance. 130-135 knot LF exponentially higher odds. I agree with those that think this is going to be the worst hurricane the west coast of FL has ever seen, this is history.

Much thanks Cyclenall.
The PV streamers are UL vorts along the trough. They push down on a TC and disrupt vertical stacking. Outflow from Ian and other convection can interact with a PV streamer and weaken it.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I went to bed at 2:30 eastern and the highest storm surge forecast was 8-12 feet, now as it is almost or possibly too late for many to evacuate it's jumped to 12-18'. A whole lot of people would have evacuated had they been told that possibility yesterday/last night. If the surge ends up verify at 15+' that will be the biggest and possibly deadliest fail that I can recall from the NHC. Inexcusable, there needs to be hell to pay and some reforms.

I've long said that the NHC needs to add a worst possible case number for storm surge, instead of getting hung up on bureaucratic precision guidelines. Make it clear that it is a worst case and not predicted/likely in their estimation, and keep with their best effort forecasting that they currently do. But they need to let people know the worst possibility so people can plan accordingly. Type 1 vs Type 2 error.

For days the NHC has said a Cat.4 was possible, so people had warning for that. I don't care much about the board's Cat 4/Cat 5 argument of the moment, that's close enough and the intensity forecast is the toughest and where the science is challenged the most. Maybe could have mentioned more the possibility of Cat. 5, it could have made a difference in some evacuation decisions, but Cat 4 is pretty bad as i. Thankfully the FL building codes are very good (though lots of mobile homes down there).

With so much stupid housing development on so much low lying land, it's the surge prediction that mattered the most. There's no reason not to make a simple change to, "Storm surge could reach 8 to 12', and while not expected, if the storm strengthens to Cat 5 a worst case surge of 18' is possible." Stating that yesterday probably would have gotten more people to evacuate some of these housing developments with average elevations such as 7'.

Not trying to start a big diversionary topic, they'll be time for that later so I won't bring it up again until the storm has dissipated. But I've long held the opinion that they need to be more open and clearly communication actual worst case numbers. This may be about to play out into a tragedy. I hope I'm wrong about the impacts and that the surge doesn't reach what's possible.

(To clarify, I'm not in FL and not at risk.)

If you refuse an Evacuation Order (and, to be clear, all of the places facing these surges have Evacuation Orders), you forfeit the right to complain about anything.

[cheezyWXguy]

Please let them upgrade it before.

It literally means nothing if it's upgraded or not right now

Agreed, the impacts will be same regardless of how it’s categorized

[ThunderForce]

Blurry but highest water that is still working. Ft Meyers cam went down.
https://i.imgur.com/yBaJOOH.png

Is that a person on the right side of that image? It's hard to tell since the image is blurry but the shape and colorization makes it look like someone with an umbrella to me.

If that really is a person I really hope whoever that is gets to a safe place soon. It looks like Ian is about to make landfall any moment now.

[tropicwatch]

206+

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1575116845299949568

[tolakram]

[TheHurricaneGod]

How far from the center are Tropical Storm strength winds, and Hurricane force winds being experienced?

Clearly getting TS gusts in West Miami Dade if that tells you anything

Yep. Winds have dramatically picked up in the past 2 hours. I can hear it howling against the house.

[FireRat]

I had a feeling Ian would be bad when I woke up, but was not expecting a borderline 5!!

WOWOW!!!
Southwest Florida is in my thoughts and prayers.

[Ronel2020]

Water is rising fast in Naples.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/water ... id=8725110

Already 5’ over the predicted tides at the gauge in Naples.

[kevin]

206+

https://tropicwatch.info/windshigher.png

Do you know what altitude this data is referring to?

[jasons2k]

The SW eyewall being stronger reminds me of Ike and how the upper dynamics enhanced that side.

[Grumpy]

https://twitter.com/zachcoveytv/status/1575132828626477056?s=46&t=kVDn9KzAJmEJVamcfmdYYQ

Morons doing it for their stupid Tik Toks.

I was Maritime SAR in the Navy. I could give you many examples of stupid things people have done that I had to go fetch them after it went south.

[Blown Away]

Satellite says ENE drift…

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ian is going to make charley look like a playground bully.