CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[sevenleft]

The G4 data is planned to be ingested for the 00z cycle tonight.

[jhamps10]

Yikes! I don't like that bend in the track on Tuesday of next week. PERHAPS Texas should really keep an eye on this...

Interesting .Showing a North trend.The CNN weather guy mentioned the model that forecasts Dean as 180mph cane

which model was that?

[Ptarmigan]

I can't remember right off hand but can anyone answer me if a 979mb pressure usually supports winds as high as 100mph?

Yes it could, depending on ambient pressure and size. 979 mb is usually for Category 1 hurricanes.

[cyclonic chronic]

i talked to my parents in punta gorda, fla. thats where charlie came ashore, they are totally complacent. they kept saying its going west period. they'll go get water tommrow. water!!! i said they need to be less complacent and have a plan just in case. no response. i hope it doesnt end up there, theyre not prepared at all. even if it doesnt slam into s.w fla. im concerned about later in the season.

[Eyewall]

whoa there GFDL

[wxmann_91]

which model was that?

HWRF takes this down to 892 mb.

I can't remember right off hand but can anyone answer me if a 979mb pressure usually supports winds as high as 100mph?

Yes it could, depending on ambient pressure and size. 979 mb is usually for Category 1 hurricanes.

A strong high to the north is resulting in a stronger than normal pressure gradient. Also the winds in the right-front quad are enhanced by the fast forward speed of the storm.

[z-bail]

it looks to me as the track has shifted slightly to the right as of 5pm. i don't think i've really heard this discussed but are there any chances that it could get pulled into the west coast of florida once it gets into the gulf if the track were to keep moving to the right? or is that like a total longshot? i don't read weather models so i don't make my own predictions i just listen to you guys.

[sweetpea]

Chills just broke out all over me when I looked at that graphic Eyewall. It can't happen to them again!!!
Debbie

[marcane_1973]

The GFDL seems to want to bend it a little bit more to the north now. Looks like it would take Dean in the same area close to where Rita hit. The new models that will be coming in late tonight will be interesting for sure.

[vaffie]

which model was that?

The 12Z WRF just off the coast of Cozumel takes it's pressure down to 887 mb, while the 12Z GFDL takes it down to 913 mb in the Central Gulf. Both of those could be consistent with 160-200 mph winds. I'm not saying that that's what will happen and certainly hope that it won't, but that's what they say. For the record, Wilma hit 882 (lowest known Atlantic pressure), Rita hit 897 and Katrina 902.

[cyclonic chronic]

whoa there GFDL

the levees in N.O. wont hold if this scenario pans out. is nagin still mayor? if so look out superdome and greater N.O. if this does come to pass, they should drag him out into the street, shoot him and pick someone else to handle N.O.!! JMO

[crazycajuncane]

whoa there GFDL

Not no..... how about H E L L NO!

I really would prefer my birthday to be debris cleaning and possible evacuation free!

[artist]

my understanding is there would have to be a strong coldfront pushing down at just the right time for it to swing back to Fl. which I think is not being shown that there will be one.

[Recurve]

it looks to me as the track has shifted slightly to the right as of 5pm. i don't think i've really heard this discussed but are there any chances that it could get pulled into the west coast of florida once it gets into the gulf if the track were to keep moving to the right? or is that like a total longshot? i don't read weather models so i don't make my own predictions i just listen to you guys.

I would say total longshot. I talked to KW NWS this morning, they are concerned that the low forecast to move west could have some effect on the track. But no one as far as I know is thinking a Charlie or Wilma-like front to recurve it completely to the west coast of Florida.

Keep an eye on it though.

[Wx_Warrior]

Don't think that would be strong enough to pull big Dean but who the heck knows at this point?

[artist]

it is still several days out - it will more than likely swing back and forth several times.

[Ptarmigan]

whoa there GFDL

I would take any model with a grain of salt. This one is scary though. Some of the models look scary for Dean, they put in league with Wilma, Gilbert, and Katrina.

[tracyswfla]

I thought the GFDL was one of the more reliable tropical models.

[artist]

it is but is still along way out - I think within 5 days it is somewhat accurate.

[hial2]

whoa there GFDL



the levees in N.O. wont hold if this scenario pans out. is nagin still mayor? if so look out superdome and greater N.O. if this does come to pass, they should drag him out into the street, shoot him and pick someone else to handle N.O.!! JMO

I think nerves are getting the best of us...this statement is out of line...JMO