2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[cycloneye]

Imagine that ECMWF also has high pressures in EPAC. Also no season there.

[ninel conde]

no wonder joe bastardi isnt excited. alot of forecasts are going to be dumped soon. high pressure and dry air. we may be looking at another 1994 or 1967. does anyone have the whole US forecast? i can only see part of it. i ask because bastardi is saying summer is over after this week, but it appears pressures are higher than normal in all of the US i can see.

[Bocadude85]

no wonder joe bastardi isnt excited. alot of forecasts are going to be dumped soon. high pressure and dry air. we may be looking at another 1994 or 1967. does anyone have the whole US forecast? i can only see part of it. i ask because bastardi is saying summer is over after this week, but it appears pressures are higher than normal in all of the US i can see.

You do realize that the European model has been predicting higher pressures for months now and has yet to verify? And we have already had 3 named systems and its only July 15th. You need to stop putting so much emphasis on one model and one person and look at the overall pattern.

[TheStormExpert]

no wonder joe bastardi isnt excited. alot of forecasts are going to be dumped soon. high pressure and dry air. we may be looking at another 1994 or 1967. does anyone have the whole US forecast? i can only see part of it. i ask because bastardi is saying summer is over after this week, but it appears pressures are higher than normal in all of the US i can see.

You do realize that the European model has been predicting higher pressures for months now and has yet to verify? And we have already had 3 named systems and its only July 15th. You need to stop putting so much emphasis on one model and one person and look at the overall pattern.

Doesn't Joe B. usually go with the Euro model all the time?

[WeatherEmperor]

no wonder joe bastardi isnt excited. alot of forecasts are going to be dumped soon. high pressure and dry air. we may be looking at another 1994 or 1967. does anyone have the whole US forecast? i can only see part of it. i ask because bastardi is saying summer is over after this week, but it appears pressures are higher than normal in all of the US i can see.

You do realize that the European model has been predicting higher pressures for months now and has yet to verify? And we have already had 3 named systems and its only July 15th. You need to stop putting so much emphasis on one model and one person and look at the overall pattern.

I didnt know that part. That is very interesting. I wonder why so many pay such heavy attention to it if its not that good. Are there any other models that do this type of forecast or is the ecmwf the only one used?

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[ninel conde]

joe bastardi is certainly right about the tropics being bone dry. i dont think i have ever seen the area from 60w all the way east across africa so totally cloudless.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time

[tolakram]

no wonder joe bastardi isnt excited. alot of forecasts are going to be dumped soon. high pressure and dry air. we may be looking at another 1994 or 1967. does anyone have the whole US forecast? i can only see part of it. i ask because bastardi is saying summer is over after this week, but it appears pressures are higher than normal in all of the US i can see.

You do realize that the European model has been predicting higher pressures for months now and has yet to verify? And we have already had 3 named systems and its only July 15th. You need to stop putting so much emphasis on one model and one person and look at the overall pattern.

Doesn't Joe B. usually go with the Euro model all the time?

Or the Brazilian model if it matches his thinking.

[cycloneye]

joe bastardi is certainly right about the tropics being bone dry. i dont think i have ever seen the area from 60w all the way east across africa so totally cloudless.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time

Is normal for the Saharan air layer to be present in June and July. Augsust and September normally has less outbreaks.

[HouTXmetro]

I was wondering about the Tropics. I know things can ramp up quickly but it doesn't seem like things are going to be as busy as predicted.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

joe bastardi is certainly right about the tropics being bone dry. i dont think i have ever seen the area from 60w all the way east across africa so totally cloudless.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time

Is normal for the Saharan air layer to be present in June and July. Augsust and September normally has less outbreaks.

The MJO isn't in our basin yet as well, so that's probably contributing to drier conditions.

[Steve H.]

I think it is foolhardy to abandon forecasts since we are only in mid July. Can the predicted number of storms (most predicted a busy season) be off....certainly. But they could very well be lower or higher. Many of these forecasts are based on statistical evidence and hindcast. If August closes without another storm then one could say lower the number. But remember 2004, it was a cooler summer overal and the tropics didn't kick in until August. This summer has also been relatively cool in Florida and is similar in rainfall and SSTs. Summer over? Hardly. We aren't even close to the peak.

[cycloneye]

The UKMET MSLP July forecast is out and has low pressures in MDR,Caribbean and GOM and that is contrary to what ECMWF has.



http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/cl ... -seas-prob

[cycloneye]

The July forecast of the 500mb height by UKMET is not a good one in terms of having landfalls in the U.S with the pattern that this forecast has.

[Blown Away]

Which model is better at predicting pressures, ECMWF or Ukmet?

[WeatherEmperor]

The July forecast of the 500mb height by UKMET is not a good one in terms of having landfalls in the U.S with the pattern that this forecast has.

I dont understand the graphic. Does it show increased chances of landfall or reduced chances?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[cycloneye]

The July forecast of the 500mb height by UKMET is not a good one in terms of having landfalls in the U.S with the pattern that this forecast has.

http://oi40.tinypic.com/1z50kdi.jpg

I dont understand the graphic. Does it show increased chances of landfall or reduced chances?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

This is what Storm2k is about. Discussing the tropics in a good way with questions and answers and good anaylisis.

The answer to the question is the big high pressure (Yellow and orange colors) in Canada and New England states that UKMET shows that will help steer any system towards the CONUS.

[TheStormExpert]

joe bastardi is certainly right about the tropics being bone dry. i dont think i have ever seen the area from 60w all the way east across africa so totally cloudless.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time

Is normal for the Saharan air layer to be present in June and July. Augsust and September normally has less outbreaks.

The MJO isn't in our basin yet as well, so that's probably contributing to drier conditions.

Is it me or has it been only favorable for development when the MJO is in the Atlantic basin so far this season? I don't remember having to almost fully rely on the MJO for development the past two seasons, makes me really wonder if conditions are not going to be as favorable as forecasters/meteorologists are predicting.

[ninel conde]

what is the ukmets track record for predicting MSLP in the previous months this year?

[cycloneye]

what is the ukmets track record for predicting MSLP in the previous months this year?

Levi Cowan has the answer to your question in two parts.

The UKMET July forecast is out. Last month, the probability of the tropical Atlantic having below normal MSLP in August-September-October was low (top image), but that forecast has flipped this month to a high probability of seeing below-normal pressures (bottom image).

In terms of overall tropical activity, we now have the UKMET and CPTEC in opposition to the still pessimistic ECMWF. I think some of these models are starting to see sense, realizing that there will be no El Nino this summer, and that the global SST pattern favors an active Atlantic, as I have spoken of since March. This is why you don't follow seasonal models around. They will lead you astray, even the ECMWF. Some of these models will be dead wrong at the end of the season. That's why seasonal forecasting still has a very large human element to it.

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits

[tolakram]

I think the answer to most questions concerning favorability is JULY.

July is normally a slow month. No more fronts to help spawn storms and we're not in the meat of the season yet.