Texas Spring-2014

[TeamPlayersBlue]

42F here in Sugar Land

[Portastorm]

Bottomed out at 36 degrees this morning, close to 7 a.m., at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County.

[aggiecutter]

With 8" of snow cover, Texarkana fell to a record low of 12 degrees last night.

[texas1836]

Low 31 degrees in McKinney (DWC) this morning.

[gboudx]

With 8" of snow cover, Texarkana fell to a record low of 12 degrees last night.

LOL! I sense shenanigans are afoot.

[Tireman4]

With 8" of snow cover, Texarkana fell to a record low of 12 degrees last night.

LOL! I sense shenanigans are afoot.

Yes. Happy Tax Day from Aggiecutter. The Texarkana Airport says "No Snow For You"///


http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTXK.html

[dhweather]

Hit 33 at my house in far northern Rockwall county.

Remarkable - only managed 38.5 at the far southern end of Rockwall county. It's only 12 miles.

[weatherdude1108]

Bottomed out at 38 degrees at my place.

[weatherdude1108]

I TOTALLY forgot about the blood moon last night. Darn it! I was so tired yesterday, wouldn't have been able to wake up for it anyway.

Only three more times in the next year and a half, then not until 2032. I guess this can be Spring-related, since it is happening in the Texas Spring.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/15/tech/inno ... lood-moon/

[gboudx]

Hit 33 at my house in far northern Rockwall county.

Remarkable - only managed 38.5 at the far southern end of Rockwall county. It's only 12 miles.

How high is your thermometer off the ground? I'm asking because I have a weather station that I had to mount on the edge of my gutters due to no other good place to put it. So it's roughly 11-12' off the ground. I used my laser temp reader and was getting temps around 37-38 closer to the ground. Maybe the ground warmth was making the air closer to the ground warmer. Dunno,

[Ntxw]

The Euro long seasonal forecast looks wet for Texas heading into summer and definitely the fall. The EPAC looks very wet (not surprisingly). This is where we need to look as the STJ hose has become a semi-permanent feature. It has been around for about a month thus far.

[WeatherGuesser]

img]http://www.pictureshack.us/images/38838_wv.gif /img]

Size of File: 5,989.91 KB (6,133,671 bytes)

A 6Mb animation?

[Ntxw]

Yes it is, I'm sorry if it's too big . Still image doesn't capture it's presence!

Anyway some of you may like the analogs. Some eye opening analogs to end April. Nearly all of them are capturing the pattern of El Nino, either during that year or the immediately following. Notice the negative to the far bottom left.

[high_lander]

When are "they" expecting the El Nino to start? Would a wetter summer help keep the heat down? Definitely muggier for sure I would imagine. Having grown up in So Cal, the Nino's always brought rain.

[Ntxw]

When are "they" expecting the El Nino to start? Would a wetter summer help keep the heat down? Definitely muggier for sure I would imagine. Having grown up in So Cal, the Nino's always brought rain.

El Nino and La Nina doesn't have a magic line that says it has begun. It starts under the Ocean and slowly surfaces. We are at the part where the first warm anomalies are making it's way to the surface. CPC usually upgrades to warning when you have the proper readings (in this case +0.5C) and there is conclusive evidence that it will further strengthen solidifying the future stay of the ENSO event. It is "officially" declared retroactive meaning once you get 5 trimonthlies of +0.5C it is then official but by then the Nino/Nina is already in place.

As far as summer, in Texas it is always hot. There is no such thing as cold summer, just dry or wet heat. Most of us prefer the second as those are more bearable. Unless you are wxman57 in that case the first would be your choice of favor.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I understand the pattern is wet in the summer but what type of rain events will we get when the rain is significant? Drought busting unorganized tropical systems? Will it increade the afternoon pop up storms? I dont recall the STJ very much in the summer is what im getting at. Thanks for your input. Animation looks great!

[gboudx]

I understand the pattern is wet in the summer but what type of rain events will we get when the rain is significant? Drought busting unorganized tropical systems? Will it increade the afternoon pop up storms? I dont recall the STJ very much in the summer is what im getting at. Thanks for your input. Animation looks great!

I'm sure Ntwx and others will correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it's the combination of the STJ and a more southern track of shortwaves and other disturbances. It could also be a more robust and long-lasting NW flow event bringing MCS activity into the region.

[Ntxw]

Aside from the pretty obvious coming Nino along the Pacific Equator, look at the dominant feature of weather. Yes you guessed, that NE Pac warm pool. Still there and better than ever. One of the great anomalous runs we have seen, and probably the greatest blocking regime in the GOA ever (recorded data) when looking at it from start to finish since a year ago. CFSv2 hangs it around indefinitely at least as far as it can see out. Thinking chances for it to remain in the fall are increasing.

Though I don't know for sure but I do wonder if we have turned the state of the North Pacific into something persistent like the late 1890s early 1900s, 1970s-1980s.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like a more than 70% chance of El Niño developing late Summer into Fall. It was 50%.

"Also on Thursday, the International Research Institute in cooperation with the CPC updated the long-term outlook for the development of El Nino. In the most recent update, the probability for the development of El Nino late this summer and fall has increased to more than 70 percent."

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Ntxw]

Looks like a more than 70% chance of El Niño developing late Summer into Fall. It was 50%.

"Also on Thursday, the International Research Institute in cooperation with the CPC updated the long-term outlook for the development of El Nino. In the most recent update, the probability for the development of El Nino late this summer and fall has increased to more than 70 percent."

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

Thanks for the link . The mid April IRI plume is actually near 80%. But this is all a formality, reality is one is already underway and we've known for quite some time. The question now is not if, but how strong.