ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Low center just west of WPB. Still getting northerly shear but may produce some heavy convection over the peninsula today.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=MLB&loop=yes

looks to be stationary, very broad, sending precip into broward and dade....had big lighting around 230 am to my NW

[NDG]

I agree about the low pressure center being west of West Palm this morning.

[jlauderdal]

we have sun now to the east

[cycloneye]

. The broad area of low pressure has moved westward and is now
located over southern Florida just south of Lake Okeechobee. Shower
activity is currently poorly organized, and strong upper-level winds
as well as interaction with land will likely inhibit development of
this system today. Once the low moves over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical
cyclone formation over the weekend while the system moves westward
at around 10 mph. Regardless of development, this low will continue
to bring locally heavy rains to portions of southern Florida and the
Florida Keys today and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Kohlecane]

Is there a COC? lol and Where is it located i can't tell..

[ronjon]

Is there a COC? lol and Where is it located i can't tell..

You can easily see it on RAD - moving W-SW toward Naples. Just SE of Lake O (look for the half semi-circle). Actually won't be over land (and pretty swampy land at that) for very long before emerging in the GOM. Might get interesting in the GOM the next 10 days with 92L and another system progged coming up from the Yuc by the GFS next weekend.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=amx&loop=yes

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 92, 2014091212, , BEST, 0, 267N, 805W, 25, 1012, LO

[Kohlecane]

Is there a COC? lol and Where is it located i can't tell..

You can easily see it on RAD - moving W-SW toward Naples. Just SE of Lake O (look for the half semi-circle). Actually won't be over land (and pretty swampy land at that) for very long before emerging in the GOM. Might get interesting in the GOM the next 10 days with 92L and another system progged coming up from the Yuc by the GFS next weekend.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=amx&loop=yes

Thanks. And I Agree with the next week or so on whats to come.

[jlauderdal]

Is there a COC? lol and Where is it located i can't tell..

You can easily see it on RAD - moving W-SW toward Naples. Just SE of Lake O (look for the half semi-circle). Actually won't be over land (and pretty swampy land at that) for very long before emerging in the GOM. Might get interesting in the GOM the next 10 days with 92L and another system progged coming up from the Yuc by the GFS next weekend.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=amx&loop=yes

the swamp waters are warmer then the gulf FWIW which isnt much but its heading right through the everglades the next few hours...wont take much to get tstorms going today, need a little heating, not much

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-82&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

The center, such that it is, looks just SE of Lake O to my eyes. (woops, as stated above )

[hurricanehunter69]

I've been studying water vapor loops in the gulf for about two days now, and I'm noticing an evolution of increasingly improving(conducive) conditions. This... IMO, is well...concerning to say the least. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Concerning? Please, give us your thoughts on this.

relatively speaking...nothing compared to Katrina conducive. But, much better than several days ago.

[jlauderdal]

looks like a band developing offshore this morning...lets see if it can intensify and move onshore later

[Senobia]

This is the only thing I could find from local mets (SETX) and it's from yesterday morning:

A tropical low in the Northwestern Bahamas is moving to the west. It is expected to bring heavy rains to South Florida and enter the gulf. We will need to watch this one as high pressure over our region may not be strong enough to deflect it. Regardless, it is too early to tell exactly where is will go and how strong it will be when it get there.

[Stormcenter]

Could be a serious rain maker for someone next week. IMO

[wxman57]

The center is NE of Okeechobee (about 30 miles). Look at surface obs, not radar. It's very broad and free of convection.

[tropicwatch]

The center is NE of Okeechobee (about 30 miles). Look at surface obs, not radar. It's very broad and free of convection.

I would have to agree, the lowest pressures 29.89 are being reported in the Lake Placid - Gator Cove area's.

[Blown Away]

The center is NE of Okeechobee (about 30 miles). Look at surface obs, not radar. It's very broad and free of convection.

Well, I'm 30 miles NE of Lake O, partly cloudy, gentle breeze, and a wonderful day...

[wxman57]

Well, I'm 30 miles NE of Lake O, partly cloudy, gentle breeze, and a wonderful day...

Oh my God! You're in the eye! Take cover immediately! Winds will be switching to the opposition direction soon and will be just as strong as when you entered the eye (5-10 kts).

[tropicwatch]

Everything will be alright heat mizer

[Sanibel]

Powder puff of a system. Barely noticeable over here with sun and light breezes. There are low hanging clouds however.