Texas Spring-2015

[TarrantWx]

These east winds are concerning. I bet there's some insane localized 1km helicity laying around this boundary.

[Texas Snowman]

Way down south near Corpus, there is this monster

Taking aim at Corpus too.

EDIT: Now a non-rotating wall cloud on that storm just north of Alice.

[dhweather]

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Wednesday, 22 April 2015 12:06 CDT

Hello,

Confidence remains high for the potential for severe thunderstorms, especially late in the afternoon and tonight. This still appears to be the first day of an active pattern, with the severe potential remaining through Friday. Just about everyone has a threat of strong storms, yet not everyone will receive severe weather. Those areas which do see severe weather will likely see high impacts, including the possibility of large hail, tornadoes, damaging winds, and localized flooding. A short PDF has been attached that shows the key points, areas, and confidence.

BOTTOM LINE:
Emergency Managers, elected and public safety officials should be prepared for the possibility of significant severe weather Wednesday through Friday. Storms will likely develop along boundaries, including the one draped over the metroplex early this afternoon. There will be several rounds of severe weather beginning Wednesday and lasting through Friday. Storm spotters should be prepared for activation by the mid-afternoon hours on Wednesday.

PRIMARY THREATS:
Wednesday: Supercell thunderstorms could produce hail greater than 2” in diameter, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and tornadoes. Flash flooding is also a possibility overnight Wednesday night.
Thursday: Supercell thunderstorms could produce hail greater than 2” in diameter, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and tornadoes.
Friday: Supercell thunderstorms could produce hail greater than 2” in diameter, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and tornadoes.

LOCATIONS/TIMING:
For Wednesday: the most likely time for severe thunderstorms is between 1-2PM and Midnight. However, thunderstorms could develop before 3 PM and linger much past midnight. All areas have the potential for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. However, the highest potential will be along and north of Interstate 20.

CONFIDENCE:
Confidence is moderate to high for this forecast, with a level of 8 on a 10 point scale. Confidence is high, as the necessary ingredients for severe weather will be in place on Wednesday. The combination of moisture, lift, instability, and favorable wind shear exists to produce supercell thunderstorms Wednesday. Confidence remains high for the ingredients for organized severe weather to continue Thursday and Friday.



http://wx5fwd.org/files/April22.pdf

[Brent]

There's been so much hype this year about so much severe weather. I know if it happens it's not hype, but I was talking to my mom in Dallas and she's gotten to the point where she doesn't believe any forecasts anymore.

Hopefully she will listen to me and keep up with conditions.

I'm kind of feeling like today has been overhyped tbh...

There is a conditional tornado threat this afternoon/evening, but to me it's going to be isolated at most.

[Ntxw]

There's been so much hype this year about so much severe weather. I know if it happens it's not hype, but I was talking to my mom in Dallas and she's gotten to the point where she doesn't believe any forecasts anymore.

Hopefully she will listen to me and keep up with conditions.

I'm kind of feeling like today has been overhyped tbh...

There is a conditional tornado threat this afternoon/evening, but to me it's going to be isolated at most.

There is truth to this. The base state has been not so favorable, something in the background that is not favoring severe outbreaks across the US. Regardless though we'll see it's a day to day thing.

[Brent]

There's been so much hype this year about so much severe weather. I know if it happens it's not hype, but I was talking to my mom in Dallas and she's gotten to the point where she doesn't believe any forecasts anymore.

Hopefully she will listen to me and keep up with conditions.

I'm kind of feeling like today has been overhyped tbh...

There is a conditional tornado threat this afternoon/evening, but to me it's going to be isolated at most.

There is truth to this. The base state has been not so favorable, something in the background that is not favoring severe outbreaks across the US. Regardless though we'll see it's a day to day thing.

There's been a lot of hype and a lot of setups this year but besides the day Rochelle happened, nothing has really lived up to it so far(and honestly Rochelle was a freak tornado along the warm front)...

now we'll see how the rest of the week goes but at least for today, I mean, the tornado threat has never been high...

[dhweather]

Well, we can start with low dew points - it was 53 in Heath last night. It has rebounded to 65, which is more favorable, but I just do not think the atmosphere is ripe, per se. Too bad we didn't get the extra sounding in, that would be helpful in seeing how things are. The cloud cover is still here in Heath, temp 72, down 1.5 degrees in the last hour. That isn't creating any instability. I just don't think it feels right for tornado weather, maybe not even widespread supercells.


Brent, you are an Alabama boy, so as a Mississippi boy, you know what I mean when I say "tornado weather", and today ain't it.

[txs4evr]

I figured now was as good a time as any to jump in.
There must be quite a bit of uncertainty in timing, extent, and perhaps even occurrence, as the DFW Aviation forecast the SHV Aviation forecasts both have no mention of even thunderstorms in the vicinity after 7pm tonight. DFW's forecast is valid all the way until 7pm tomorrow night with those further east in TX/LA valid until this time tomorrow. Very odd, considering the supposed high confidence in the event(s) at least happening. A remark indicating thunderstorms in the vicinity of an airfield is a good heads up for all interests while being vague enough that it is not going to stop most ground and air activities. And yet there is no mention of it after 7pm.
By way of a brief introduction, I am ex-USAF, spent all 25 years in weather, 10 years of it right in the middle of Tornado Alley.

[Brent]

Well, we can start with low dew points - it was 53 in Heath last night. It has rebounded to 65, which is more favorable, but I just do not think the atmosphere is ripe, per se. Too bad we didn't get the extra sounding in, that would be helpful in seeing how things are. The cloud cover is still here in Heath, temp 72, down 1.5 degrees in the last hour. That isn't creating any instability. I just don't think it feels right for tornado weather, maybe not even widespread supercells.


Brent, you are an Alabama boy, so as a Mississippi boy, you know what I mean when I say "tornado weather", and today ain't it.

The sun is trying to peek out here and I see blue sky but when I walked outside you could feel a cool tint to the air... definitely not tornado weather. I know exactly what you mean... on most of the bad spring outbreak days in Alabama you could just walk outside and feel a sense of doom. That's not to say there can't be a couple of tornadoes here and there, but I just don't feel it's an outbreak day(and tbh the tornado probability is 5% which is hardly high)

Now granted in Alabama we used to get low cape/high shear events in the middle of the winter with weather like this, but this isn't winter.

[Shoshana]

I figured now was as good a time as any to jump in.
There must be quite a bit of uncertainty in timing, extent, and perhaps even occurrence, as the DFW Aviation forecast the SHV Aviation forecasts both have no mention of even thunderstorms in the vicinity after 7pm tonight. DFW's forecast is valid all the way until 7pm tomorrow night with those further east in TX/LA valid until this time tomorrow. Very odd, considering the supposed high confidence in the event(s) at least happening. A remark indicating thunderstorms in the vicinity of an airfield is a good heads up for all interests while being vague enough that it is not going to stop most ground and air activities. And yet there is no mention of it after 7pm.
By way of a brief introduction, I am ex-USAF, spent all 25 years in weather, 10 years of it right in the middle of Tornado Alley.

Hi and welcome

[Texas Snowman]

I would agree that the cloud cover hanging in (it's back to mostly cloudy in Denison) isn't going to help any of my earlier concerns bear much fruit.

[dhweather]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1243 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFTS
DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MVFR/IFR CIGS RETURNING OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS IS CHALLENGING
BASED ON THE WEATHER PATTERN WE ARE CURRENTLY IN. THERE IS A
DECENT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ON IF AND WHEN THE AIRPORTS WILL BE
AFFECTED AND THEREFORE THE WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL TSRA/IMPACTS IS
DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN. IN ADDITION...WHAT HAPPENS WITH STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON AVIATION AND STORM TRENDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE METROPLEX WITH
NORTH WINDS PREVAILING AT ALL THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. EXPECT THE
WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN
EVENTUALLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND BACK TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHEN AND WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN IS MORE OF A WATCH-AND-SEE SCENARIO WHERE WE
UNFORTUNATELY MUST WAIT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. INITIATION
IS MORE LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHICH MAY MEAN STORMS WILL FORM
SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX AND NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL CARRY VCTS
FROM 20Z-06Z AS ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. IN ADDITION...A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NOT
MENTION THIS IN THE EXTENDED AT KDFW AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST
TIME FRAME WOULD BE AFTER 21Z.

[dhweather]

I figured now was as good a time as any to jump in.
There must be quite a bit of uncertainty in timing, extent, and perhaps even occurrence, as the DFW Aviation forecast the SHV Aviation forecasts both have no mention of even thunderstorms in the vicinity after 7pm tonight. DFW's forecast is valid all the way until 7pm tomorrow night with those further east in TX/LA valid until this time tomorrow. Very odd, considering the supposed high confidence in the event(s) at least happening. A remark indicating thunderstorms in the vicinity of an airfield is a good heads up for all interests while being vague enough that it is not going to stop most ground and air activities. And yet there is no mention of it after 7pm.
By way of a brief introduction, I am ex-USAF, spent all 25 years in weather, 10 years of it right in the middle of Tornado Alley.

Welcome aboard!

[Ralph's Weather]

A good deal of sun has allowed temps to reach 80, but with a dp of 61 I am not sure how severe it will get later. I expect strong winds and maybe hail, but I agree that this not have the feel of a major outbreak. But like with hurricanes it only takes one in the right spot to cause major devastation. Also with the heavy recent rains flooding is a concern.

[WeatherNewbie]

Sun is definitely breaking through on the Carrollton/Plano border right now. Felt significantly warmer coming back from lunch than it did going to lunch.

[TheProfessor]

The suns out here, Also, take a look back at May 15th 2013 as that day was very similar to today, even more so than April 3 2012 in my opinion.

[TarrantWx]

Latest from Steve Mccauley via Facebook:

"The latest data sets are coming in and continue to suggest strong to severe thunderstorms will move across nearly half of north Texas late this evening and tonight. Late afternoon storms are also possible, but the highest severe potential will be during the evening hours from 7 PM to midnight.
T-storms in Oklahoma have sent out an outflow boundary which is currently making its way across the Metroplex. It is expected to stall and begin lifting back north later today. Storms firing on the dryline out west of us late this afternoon will move east and will interact with this boundary which could allow them to increase their rotation strength. This would increase the severe potential here in the Metroplex some time between 7 PM and Midnight tonight.
Stay tuned for updates!"

[gboudx]

Sun is definitely breaking through on the Carrollton/Plano border right now. Felt significantly warmer coming back from lunch than it did going to lunch.

Full sun here in northern Rockwall county with some clouds. Definitely seems like the cloudiness is breaking up. But if anyone reads the post dhweather posted from Skywarn, the attached pdf had this to say:

Don’t be fooled by the cloud cover and “cool” temperatures. Severe thunderstorms likely today

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Sun is out now in Richardson.

[Texas Snowman]

Yup, sun back out in Denison. That should help increase instability this afternoon.

Also, saw a forecast radar (not sure which one) on Twitter, it has a very healthy supercell approaching the Metroplex later today about sundown. Guess we'll see.