ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[PauleinHouston]

TCEQ high res visible sat

http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/compliance/monops/data/satellite/GOES/BIG_TX/vis30/latest.jpeg

[Nederlander]

This is still a mission to find a center, so I think they are circling around it, not doing a normal alpha pattern they would do had it already had a well defined LLC on a previous mission.

Interested to see what they find NE of their current location.

[NDG]

By the recon to me it is very evident that the LLC is near 27N & 93.8W because besides finding a windshift is where the lowest pressure has been.

[fox13weather]

They need to get watches and warnings out asap

This is going to be a rain maker for Texas ......maybe some gusty squalls, that's about it. The reason there are no watches and warnings issued is because the NHC can not identify a closed circulation. The residents of Texas are not going to be surprised by this storm. Local meteorologists are all over it.

[ozonepete]

This is still a mission to find a center, so I think they are circling around it, not doing a normal alpha pattern they would do had it already had a well defined LLC on a previous mission.

Yup. Based on everything we're seeing they have to do whatever flight pattern they can to establish the dominant center.

[Hammy]

This is still a mission to find a center, so I think they are circling around it, not doing a normal alpha pattern they would do had it already had a well defined LLC on a previous mission.

Yup. Based on everything we're seeing they have to do whatever flight pattern they can to establish the dominant center.

The winds certainly seem to be much more solidly from the west throughout on the south end at this point compared to earlier with constantly changing light winds.

[wkwally]

Good to see that the COH is doing a good job of preparing for this

[Aric Dunn]

Im pretty sure they have a firm grasp on its location. looks like they are doing a broad wind field sampling. and will probably do a clean pass from se to nw.

[Hammy]

Im pretty sure they have a firm grasp on its location. looks like they are doing a broad wind field sampling. and will probably do a clean pass from se to nw.

Were they going so far south to make sure there were no eddies?

[tropicwatch]

Im pretty sure they have a firm grasp on its location. looks like they are doing a broad wind field sampling. and will probably do a clean pass from se to nw.

Think so too so they can give fairly accurate wind radii from the center.

[Nederlander]

Does anybody have a link for a hi-res 1km vis floater loop? I used to have a really good one, but now i have a new computer.

[ozonepete]

Does anybody have a link for a hi-res 1km vis floater loop? I used to have a really good one, but now i have a new computer.

Use this. http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[ozonepete]

Im pretty sure they have a firm grasp on its location. looks like they are doing a broad wind field sampling. and will probably do a clean pass from se to nw.

Were they going so far south to make sure there were no eddies?

I would think that's a big part of it. And it's a large circulation. They are covering all of the bases.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve
Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the area of
low pressure located about 200 miles southeast of the middle Texas
coast indicate that the center has become better defined since
earlier today. If these trends continue, advisories will be
initiated later this evening on Tropical Storm Bill.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds with
the low are near 50 mph. Interests in and along the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
system as it moves northwestward toward the Texas coast. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely
along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in
extreme southwestern Louisiana, tonight and Tuesday. The system is
also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional
information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[galaxy401]

It will form an eye at this point when they upgrade.

[weathernerdguy]

I've seen worse.

[Nederlander]

Does anybody have a link for a hi-res 1km vis floater loop? I used to have a really good one, but now i have a new computer.

Use this. http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Thanks. Has the forward speed slowed? Can't completely tell but appears that way (I know looks can be deceiving especially without a well defined coc.) Looks like its got a more westward movement as well compared to earlier when it seemed to be gaining more latitude.

[ozonepete]

Does anybody have a link for a hi-res 1km vis floater loop? I used to have a really good one, but now i have a new computer.

Use this. http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Thanks. Has the forward speed slowed? Can't completely tell but appears that way (I know looks can be deceiving especially without a well defined coc.) Looks like its got a more westward movement as well compared to earlier when it seemed to be gaining more latitude.

There is no way to be sure of forward speed and direction based on a couple of hours of satellite images. Wait for the advisory at this point because the data from Recon combined with NHC's analysis of it are really important now. I wouldn't try to second guess them on track at all.

[Fego]

I've seen worse.

A lot worse... badly worse. Strange thing çause it is so close to land.

[Fego]

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Ummm... in five days it will be well over land, then, it would be a surprise, imho, if is clasified overland. Am I right?