ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the Euro closer it is a good 8 hours faster with landfall than its earlier 12z run, landfall around 6 AM Thursday morning still a good 16-18 hours slower than the GFS timing, 935mb prior to landfall! Around 10 miles further west than its earlier run.

https://i.imgur.com/87vGdG3.png

I keep thinking about the potential massive storm surge that could happen in the Big Bend with that type of intense tropical cyclone. Uggh.. This is just the worst possible situation you can imagine for that area.

[chaser1]

I feel it important to not forget about the people in the Carolinas who were impacted by Florence to pay attention to the developments of Michael. The latest EURO and UKMET shows Michael moving up northeast later this week through the same areas that were impacted by Florence a few weeks ago. Folks there need to stay abrested!

I suppose the saving grace for them is that at least it'll be moving at a pretty fact clip if the Euro is correct. Less time for greater precip accumulations.

[NDG]

Euro shows wind gusts up to 160 mph at landfall. Widespreap 140+mph gusts.

[LarryWx]

The ECMWF is literally an easterly-biased Eloise (1975) 2.0 (or a high-latitude Wilma). The poleward outflow channel offsets the impact of nearshore waters. Basically the run suggests little to no weakening prior to landfall, with a period of rapid deepening over the northward-displaced Loop Current. You also have the sharp turn to the northeast, à la Eloise. However, I'm skeptical about the intensity. Short-term trends don't suggest RI in the near term, given continuing shear.

Shell Mound,
Why would the impact of nearshore waters by itself be a weakening factor? The SSTs are way above normal (normal is down to ~78-9 now) at bathwater levels of 85F, which is near a record for so late in the season and the storm is moving at a fast enough speed to prevent much cooling. So, I'd think that high OHC there wouldn't be crucial. What am I missing?

[Shell Mound]

The ECMWF is literally an easterly-biased Eloise (1975) 2.0 (or a high-latitude Wilma). The poleward outflow channel offsets the impact of nearshore waters. Basically the run suggests little to no weakening prior to landfall, with a period of rapid deepening over the northward-displaced Loop Current. You also have the sharp turn to the northeast, à la Eloise. However, I'm skeptical about the intensity. Short-term trends don't suggest RI in the near term, given continuing shear.

Shell Mound,
Why would the impact of nearshore waters by itself be a weakening factor? The SSTs are way above normal (normal is down to ~78-9 now) at bathwater levels of 85F, which is near a record for so late in the season and the storm is moving at a fast enough speed to prevent much cooling. So, I'd think that high OHC there wouldn't be crucial. What am I missing?

The depth of the nearshore waters and associated heat content is shallower vs. bathymetry farther offshore. Tropical cyclones absorb heat faster while traversing shallower thermoclines. Of course, a fast forward speed (and earlier intensification over the deep offshore Loop Current) would offset the effect of shallow nearshore waters. Nevertheless, there is significant reason to question the projected intensity of Michael, given current disorganisation and large size (wind field). This would hinder the ability of a core to organise vertically by the time the storm encounters more favourable conditions over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.

[hurricaneCW]

Euro is still way too slow, but it won't make too much difference regarding intensity and LF location. It'll only affect who gets impacted post LF.

[chaser1]

Euro is still way too slow, but it won't make too much difference regarding intensity and LF location. It'll only affect who gets impacted post LF.

Too slow??? At this rate, Michael will be well south of NHC 12Z forecast position. Thus far I'm not seeing this storm rocketing off to the north yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro is still way too slow, but it won't make too much difference regarding intensity and LF location. It'll only affect who gets impacted post LF.

Too slow??? At this rate, Michael will be well south of NHC 12Z forecast position. Thus far I'm not seeing this storm rocketing off to the north yet.

yeah while it is doing this organization phase its just going to meander. could really slow things up like the Euro.

[Sciencerocks]

I think this has a chance to be a cat4 landfall....

We will see...

[chaser1]

Michael's gonna get a ticket for loitering lol. I'm outa here.......

[p1nheadlarry]

Euro shows wind gusts up to 160 mph at landfall. Widespreap 140+mph gusts.

https://i.imgur.com/YeMBHRF.png

That would be most unfortunate. Not many roads in or out of the area.

[robbielyn]

spaghetti models showing NW motion then right hook into points west of apalach. Euro shows the same thing. better for the west coast peninsula the farther NW Michael is. feel awful for Panama City FL.

[GCANE]

Euro on approach
931mb
At DMAX

[otowntiger]

Euro on approach
931mb
At DMAX

http://i68.tinypic.com/beiwrn.png

I will be shocked if that intensity actually comes to fruition. Not definitely saying it won’t but still don’t think it’s likely.

[Shell Mound]

The 06Z GFS is substantially faster and notably deeper than the preceding three runs. Landfall occurs around midday (local time) on Wednesday, October 10, near Miramar Beach, FL. Real-time trends have consistently favoured the faster solutions that yield an earlier landfall time on the Florida Panhandle. Climatology and setup suggest landfall is likely to take place between Destin and Cape San Blas, in agreement with model data and the NHC. More precise details have yet to be worked out.

[GCANE]

On approach, GFS forecast.

Conducive factors: 355K PV, TPW, Loop Current, Hot Pool along GOM Coast, DMAX, Theta-E,

Inhibiting factors: Possible mid-level dry-air entrainment.

Mixed bag on UL winds, and CAPE.

[Shell Mound]

The modelled pre-landfall conditions on the 06Z GFS are quite similar to those that attended Eloise (1975), which, owing to both a displaced Loop Current, Caribbean moisture envelope, and baroclinic forcing, rapidly deepened over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, strengthening as it accelerated northeastward up until landfall. Note the pronounced dual outflow channels, approaching continental trough, and (retrograding) upper low to the east (over the Sargasso Sea) in both cases. Of course, the placement of features relative to the storm is crucial in determining whether this worst-case scenario actually has a chance to play out.

[NDG]

So far the 06z HWRF is not as fast on the track of Michael, will be interesting to see if it ends up closer to the Euro's landfall.
It has Michael becoming a major hurricane late tonight/very early tomorrow morning.

[BobHarlem]

HWRF Showing a pretty strong Cat 4 at landfall

[tolakram]

Early model roundup, Euro 0Z will follow. I ended all of these at 66 hours so you can get an idea of where the models place the storm.

GFS


FV3


ICON


HWRF


HMON