Texas Fall 2019

[dhweather]

From the FWD AFD this afternoon.

A deepening upper level system across the northern Plains will
draw moisture northward, helping to once again increase area
temperatures into the lower 90s Saturday and Sunday. By late
Sunday night, a stronger cold front will make its way into the
region, boosting rain chances for the entire region. Behind the
front, much cooler temperatures can be expected with below normal
readings overspreading the region. Highs on Monday and Tuesday
will likely remain in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with a brisk
northerly breeze between 10-15 mph.


Your wall will be tested wxman57

[weatherdude1108]

Donut hole is over south-central Texas now. Back to normal! Yay! I've missed that donut hole!

Thing is, even if these models showed above normal precip and cold temperatures, I wouldn't believe them given their reliability lately.

[Haris]

Another record broken ... 99F.

[weatherdude1108]

Of course the front is trending drier, but the cool down to more NORMAL temps will be better.

Not much of a Pacific influence to get significant rains going here I guess. Probably been too hot to get a normal pattern going, unless hot and dry autumns are the new normal. I know it's only October 2nd, but the spectators are getting impatient.

Might as well call Earth the new Venus, at least in Texas.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 020857
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
357 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
The current weather pattern across the CONUS is defined primarily by
the presence of a large mid level ridge of high pressure across the
Southeastern US with troughing across the Intermountain West. It is a
mostly quiet Wednesday morning across South Central Texas. A couple
small showers have developed once more across the Hill Country
thanks to the low level jet and sufficient boundary layer moisture,
but activity this morning is considerably less than previous mornings.
A stratus deck has also developed across much of the region.
Temperatures this morning continue to run well above normal, ranging
anywhere from the mid 70s to around 80 as of 3 AM. Any residual
showers should end shortly after sunrise, with the stratus deck
mixing out by mid to late morning. Another hot day can be expected
today, with high temperatures reaching the mid 90s for the majority
of the region. Austin Camp Mabry will likely reach the upper 90s once
again. The record high for today at Austin Camp Mabry is 100 degrees
(set in 1938), which also happens to be the latest 100 degree day on
record. While I have doubts about ATT reaching 100 today, stranger
things have happened.

Another warm night is expected for tonight, with light winds and
increasing clouds after midnight. Overnight lows will range from the
low to mid 70s, with perhaps a few upper 60s across the Hill
Country. The heat will continue into Thursday, with high
temperatures in the mid 90s for most of the region. There will be a
slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms from a La
Grange to Eagle Pass line and areas south and east.


&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Models continue to indicate a weak cold front moving into the region
from the north early Friday morning. High temperatures for Friday
will likely be a couple degrees cooler than Thursday, but will still
be above normal. There will be a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon, with the best chances across the
Coastal Plains where better moisture and the sea breeze may enhance
convection. NHC continues to highlight a disturbance near the Cayman
Islands, giving it a 20 percent chance of tropical development
through the next 5 days. However, at this time we do not expect any
impacts to South Central Texas.

Hot and dry weather is expected for Saturday and Sunday as ridging
builds back in from northwestern Mexico. High temperatures will be a
couple degrees warmer than Friday, with most areas seeing highs in
the mid 90s and lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. Despite the hot
afternoon temperatures, relatively low dew points should make it feel
considerably more comfortable than the previous weekend.

Models continue to show a legitimate cold front moving north to south
through the region Monday morning. For now, have 20 percent chances
for showers and thunderstorms on Monday in association with the
front, but models have been trending drier with the frontal passage.
Winds will turn northerly and breezy behind the front, and will
usher in cooler and drier air. Highs on Monday are expected to range
from the low 80s across the Hill Country to near 90 across the
southern portions of the region. Clearing skies overnight Monday into
Tuesday morning will help temperatures drop into the upper 50s for
the Hill Country, with low to mid 60s elsewhere. Tuesday looks even
better, with highs ranging from the low to mid 80s with very low
humidity, and low temperatures early Wednesday morning ranging from
the mid 50s in the Hill Country to the low 60s elsewhere.

[Ralph's Weather]

I cannot wait for next week's front. Highs in the 70s with lows maybe touching the upper 40s here in NE TX Wed morning.

[CaptinCrunch]

October 2016 is the warmest on record by +6.6 monthly mean, the average H/L was 84.9/63.4 (September 2019 hot)

Mid to low 90's are forecast through Sunday, that 's 6-10 degrees above normal, thankfully the lows are getting better with low 70's to upper 60's (normal low 64)
Here's a couple of points made by the NWS FTW office in their moring AFD

The long anticipated breakdown of the dominant subtropical ridge
that has kept much of the southern U.S. so hot over the last few
weeks will commence on Thursday as a powerful upper trough
traverses the northern Plains. While this particular trough won`t
bring immediate relief to our area, it will send the first of a
series of fronts southward through the Plains.

There is a little uncertainty to the forecast
for Thursday though as these fronts can wreak havoc on temperature
forecasts. The latest 3km TTU WRF hangs the front up near the Red
River and maximizes compressional warming just ahead of the
front. This results in high temperatures soaring into the upper
90s to near 100 degrees. While this may be a little too warm, it`s
probably safe to say that Thursday afternoon will be hot across
the region.

Friday will feature temperatures about 3-5 degrees cooler than
Thursday, but deeper moisture will overspread the area from the
east as flow around our weakening ridge transports moisture
westward. We`ll hang on to some 20-30% PoPs during the afternoon
on Friday given the increase in moisture and weak convergence
associated with the old front.

While the Saturday front won`t quite make it into our area, a
trailing shortwave will dig south into the Plains during the day
on Sunday. This will finally drive our much anticipated first
significant cold front through North Texas on Sunday night. The
front will be accompanied by a chance for showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms late Sunday night into Monday morning, followed
by brisk north winds and an appreciable drop in atmospheric
moisture content. Monday should be a refreshing day with highs
ranging from the mid 70s north to low/mid 80s south along with
north winds. The nice weather should continue into the middle of
next week.

I do like the thought of Mid 70's for highs and rain heading into Monday....

[Brent]

what a beautiful forecast.... could use more rain but its a start

Sunday Night Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 60.
Monday Partly sunny in the morning...then clearing. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s.
Monday Night Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s.
Tuesday Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Tuesday Night Clear. Lows in the mid 50s.
Wednesday Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.

[bubba hotep]

Hot start will take a lot of cold to overcome and break the trend from the recent past. Hotober has been strong lately...

[Yukon Cornelius]

It’s a nice change of scenery waking up to a dark cold front on the horizon. Let’s end this Hotober.

[CaptinCrunch]

Today will be the hottest day hopefully for the rest of Fall, I wont be to surprised to see DFW hit upper 90s. Back down to lower 90s Friday-Sunday.

Fall has been pretty bad for NTX lately with 2015, 2016, and 2017 in top 5 warmest on record.

For Hotober proper, 2004, 2007, 2014, 2016 rank in the top 10 warmest.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX echoed my thoughts with their last paragraph.


173
FXUS64 KEWX 030831
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
331 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
The upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to keep most of
Central Texas dry with temperatures well above normal for the end of
the week. As a weak cold front drops down into the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles today South Central Texas will remain on the western
periphery of the upper level ridge. With southeast flow off the Gulf
of Mexico, decent moisture in place, and a weak coastal trough
approaching South Texas isolated showers and a few thunderstorms
will be possible throughout the day mainly south of the Interstate 10
corridor. A few of these showers are already beginning around Corpus
Christi. With the majority of the precipitation staying south of the
area afternoon highs will again climb into the mid-90s. These highs
remain 8-10 degrees above normal for the beginning of October, and
within 1-3 degrees of the record highs for AUS, ATT, and SAT.

As the Coastal Trough moves inland across south Texas on Friday the
ridge will hold steady and keep most of the rain south of the area.
At the same time the weak cold front to the north will stall across
north Texas. With moist air still at the surface the proximity to the
front could spark off a few isolated showers and storms across the
Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and points eastward. Even with the
cloud cover and isolated convection around, with the front staying to
the north of our area on Friday the above average afternoon
temperatures will continue. Overnight lows will also continue to run
8-12 degrees above normal as well.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
A welcome pattern change will begin on Saturday as the ridge over the
Southeast United States begins to flatten and push further east in
response to a large trough digging across the North-Central Plains.
While Saturday and Sunday will both continue the dry and warm trend
the big story will arrive Sunday night into Monday.

The Central Plains trough will send our first Fall cold front through
South Central Texas some time Sunday night into early Monday. Model
timing still differs with the Canadian being the fastest (arriving
Sunday night) and the GFS/ECMWF showing slightly later, early Monday
morning. Models also continue to disagree on the chances of rain with
the front. The 00z ECMWF has now dried out, while the 00z GFS shows
a band of precipitation along the front. Even the wettest of the
models, the Canadian, limits the QPF rainfall amounts to a tenth of
an inch or less. It looks like the best chances for any rain will be
across the northern areas of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country
Sunday night, into the Rio Grande Plains on Monday.

The big news will be the temperatures. Sunday should be warm as pre-
frontal compressional warming helps spike afternoon highs. This will
also be true for Monday across the Southern parts of our area if the
front slows any. Behind the front "cooler" temperatures will filter
in with highs in the lows 80s behind the front Monday, and mid 80s
for much of the area on Tuesday. These temperatures are close to or
slightly below seasonal normals. Overnight lows will drop into the
upper 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures will begin to slowly rebound
for the second half of next week, but the Canadian, GFS, and to a
lesser extend the ECMWF all show another possible front late next
week.

The tl;dr version of all of that is that while rain chances remain
minimal, the first Fall front of the year will move through Sunday
night into Monday and drop temperatures closer to where they should
be for the beginning of October! While we could sure use the rain, we
can all get excited about cooler temperatures!

[Cpv17]

It’s EPAC crossover season. Maybe we can get one of these to give much of TX some beneficial rains!

[Portastorm]

Both the 12z GFS and CMC blast us (Texas) in about a week's time with a very strong cold front. The 0z European didn't show anything like that so I'll be curious to see if King Euro changes his mind in the 12z run coming out now.

[Brent]

Both the 12z GFS and CMC blast us (Texas) in about a week's time with a very strong cold front. The 0z European didn't show anything like that so I'll be curious to see if King Euro changes his mind in the 12z run coming out now.

wow you're not kidding... there is snow in Kansas and the CMC(its colder than the GFS) has Dallas near freezing(!!!) at 240 hours... Obviously I don't buy it at all but wouldn't that be a flip from the endless 90s?

[gpsnowman]

Both the 12z GFS and CMC blast us (Texas) in about a week's time with a very strong cold front. The 0z European didn't show anything like that so I'll be curious to see if King Euro changes his mind in the 12z run coming out now.

wow you're not kidding... there is snow in Kansas and the CMC(its colder than the GFS) has Dallas near freezing(!!!) at 240 hours... Obviously I don't buy it at all but wouldn't that be a flip from the endless 90s?

https://i.ibb.co/X4hKP2h/gem-T2m-scus-41.png

Wouldn't that be soooo sweet. Maybe this is an example of Joe Bastardi's famed bathtub slosh theory.

[Brent]

the Euro definitely has a 2nd front by next Friday, both Friday and Saturday have highs in the 60s to around 70 and lows into the 40s for DFW

[Portastorm]

the Euro definitely has a 2nd front by next Friday, both Friday and Saturday have highs in the 60s to around 70 and lows into the 40s for DFW

You beat me to the punch, Brent. Yeah ... King Euro in his 12z run is definitely on board now. We just need these models to hold the line on these fronts ... hopefully the death of #EndlessSummer is near.

[dhweather]

the Euro definitely has a 2nd front by next Friday, both Friday and Saturday have highs in the 60s to around 70 and lows into the 40s for DFW

Well, it appears that the RIDGE OF DEATH is on its last legs, after a lengthy reign of terror.

It was only 98 yesterday at Northpark yesterday at 4:30 - October 2nd.

I won't complain about the warm, I like it. I will complain about the drought, it sucks mightily.

[hamburgerman7070]

As long as the mjo stays in phase 1 this time of year, it will be as warm as it can get for this time of year. The million dollar question is whether it can stay in the 8,1, and 2 phases in winter, which would be decent for us. There are so many moving parts to winter weather.

[Brent]

the Euro definitely has a 2nd front by next Friday, both Friday and Saturday have highs in the 60s to around 70 and lows into the 40s for DFW

Well, it appears that the RIDGE OF DEATH is on its last legs, after a lengthy reign of terror.

It was only 98 yesterday at Northpark yesterday at 4:30 - October 2nd.

I won't complain about the warm, I like it. I will complain about the drought, it sucks mightily.

Its been even worse east of here many 100s reported in the SE which are unprecedented in October over there

many other places all time October highs