ATL: DELTA - Models

[Nederlander]

Both HWRF and HMON have a sub-940 strong CAT4 in the Gulf

18Z takes Delta way west of 93 as a real surge monster so Texas may get flood warnings.
I'm not familiar with the surge modeling for Galveston island area?

Galveston has a high seawall, but Bolivar Peninsula is exposed and takes beating after beating with tons of erosion. For inundation along the Houston ship channel, the storm would need to pass west of there and that may be a bit of a stretch. Anywhere west of the TX/LA border and you’d have major inundation along the Sabine and Neches Rivers (Beaumont, Orange, etc.)

[Steve]

HWRF has it out of Louisiana in less than 15 hours. It landfalls sometime between 75-78 hours and then is in the very NE corner of the state at 90 hours about to cross that "T" which is the LA/MS/AR border. It shows 980mb so still a decent system but very fast moving. It's also still west of 91 up there (91.22W), so it's definitely still on a NNE heading. We'll see if it quickly cuts east like N2FSU showed last hour.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0618&fh=90

[sphelps8681]

Both HWRF and HMON have a sub-940 strong CAT4 in the Gulf

18Z takes Delta way west of 93 as a real surge monster so Texas may get flood warnings.
I'm not familiar with the surge modeling for Galveston island area?

Galveston has a high seawall, but Bolivar Peninsula is exposed and takes beating after beating with tons of erosion. For inundation along the Houston ship channel, the storm would need to pass west of there and that may be a bit of a stretch. Anywhere west of the TX/LA border and you’d have major inundation along the Sabine and Neches Rivers (Beaumont, Orange, etc.)

Was there the last couple of days. Hwy 87 leaving the beach going toward Winnie is nothing but a bunch of rocks small, if not rocks just a bunch of sand piles off the road. Many instrances going to the beach are almost not passable due to Laura. You would get stuck for sure. Most of the dunes are gone so not sure how they will end up after this storm passes if they get anything. Praying for anyone in the path of this monster!!

[PTrackerLA]

Solid Cat 3 for the HWRF Friday night right at Pecan Island. Look out Lafayette, New Iberia and similar. There are about 500,000 people who live in the Lafayette metropolitan area which is double and a half again what they have in Lake Charles (roughly 200k).
https://i.imgur.com/9dddXT5.png

18z HMON and HWRF would both be brutal for the Lafayette area. Our local met Rob Perillo is predicting gusts 100-120mph and telling everyone to prepare for a week or more without power. I've got my generator lined up today and considering buying a window AC unit tomorrow as we have young kids.

Sorry for the discussion side-talk, I'll share the 18z Euro when it arrives.

[Red eye]

Solid Cat 3 for the HWRF Friday night right at Pecan Island. Look out Lafayette, New Iberia and similar. There are about 500,000 people who live in the Lafayette metropolitan area which is double and a half again what they have in Lake Charles (roughly 200k).
https://i.imgur.com/9dddXT5.png

18z HMON and HWRF would both be brutal for the Lafayette area. Our local met Rob Perillo is predicting gusts 100-120mph and telling everyone to prepare for a week or more without power. I've got my generator lined up today and considering buying a window AC unit tomorrow as we have young kids.

Sorry for the discussion side-talk, I'll share the 18z Euro when it arrives.

I can't see LUS being a week slow on electricity. They have one of the best grids around. Seriously. Lafayette is the place to be in a disaster. The city gets rid of water well and a great utility company. For lily most people had electricity within about 2 days.

[Shawee]

Solid Cat 3 for the HWRF Friday night right at Pecan Island. Look out Lafayette, New Iberia and similar. There are about 500,000 people who live in the Lafayette metropolitan area which is double and a half again what they have in Lake Charles (roughly 200k).
https://i.imgur.com/9dddXT5.png

Thanks for all the great links and thoughts Steve, and everyone else. In New Orleans with a daughter @ UL Lafayette, and family everywhere from Houston, watching closing like everyone else. A good freind in Lake Charles just got power back on today, and many fishermen and families still living on their boats w/ generators because power would get down to Creole and Hackberry until next year. Sorry, this is the modeling thread. One question on the SST effects and strength modeling; are some different models treating the water temperature effect differently, or are they predicting slower speeds? Quite a difference in landfall strength between models. I’m surprised it could possibly survive that strong over such a stretch of milder temps.

[stormlover2013]

18z euro farther west

[LowerAlabamaTider]

In looking at most of the models latest runs it sure unfortunately looks as though the area where Laura hit may be hit again.

[Steve]

Solid Cat 3 for the HWRF Friday night right at Pecan Island. Look out Lafayette, New Iberia and similar. There are about 500,000 people who live in the Lafayette metropolitan area which is double and a half again what they have in Lake Charles (roughly 200k).
https://i.imgur.com/9dddXT5.png

Thanks for all the great links and thoughts Steve, and everyone else. In New Orleans with a daughter @ UL Lafayette, and family everywhere from Houston, watching closing like everyone else. A good freind in Lake Charles just got power back on today, and many fishermen and families still living on their boats w/ generators because power would get down to Creole and Hackberry until next year. Sorry, this is the modeling thread. One question on the SST effects and strength modeling; are some different models treating the water temperature effect differently, or are they predicting slower speeds? Quite a difference in landfall strength between models. I’m surprised it could possibly survive that strong over such a stretch of milder temps.

I can’t answer that because I don’t understand physics even a little so trying to read their synopsis’s might as well be in another language. I know that some of the dynamical models do have a **** load of data in them. And SST’s are a pretty critical component. So no doubt some of them do factor it in.

[SoupBone]

18z euro farther west

Any pics how far west from the previous run? Or miles estimate?

[ATCcane]

18z euro farther west

Any pics how far west from the previous run? Or miles estimate?

Texas/Louisiana Border, Port Arthur area

Edit: Just east of the border in extreme SW Louisiana

[SoupBone]

00Z, slight east shift and very tightly clustered.

[Horn1991]

00Z, slight east shift and very tightly clustered.

https://i.imgur.com/HjdXPAz.png

Very tight

[Stormcenter]

Can you say model consensus?

00Z, slight east shift and very tightly clustered.

https://i.imgur.com/HjdXPAz.png

[NDG]

A closer look at the 0z early models, TVCN now between Lafayette and Baton Rouge.

[SoupBone]

A closer look at the 0z early models, TVCN now between Lafayette and Baton Rouge.

https://i.imgur.com/qrtIfM9.gif

This would be really bad for Baton Rouge (and obviously Lafayette). Gustav 2008 was a power outage nightmare, and spawned multiple tornado touchdowns. So 12 years of tree limbs needing to be cleared out by mother nature.

[PTrackerLA]

18z Euro

[Horn1991]

18z Euro

https://i.imgur.com/DPAOjuK.png

So Euro stayed the same as previous?

[Stormcenter]

I think EURO may be out to lunch with this storm.

18z Euro

https://i.imgur.com/DPAOjuK.png

So Euro stayed the same as previous?

[NDG]

Lets not forget that the 18z Euro does not have much if any of the G-IV recon data.