Texas Fall 2024

[TropicalTundra]

Seems next week will probably have a decent cold front and days of just straight downpour; much more fall-like.

I can absolutely tolerate a warm Halloween, but a warm Thanksgiving might be my breaking point.

[jasons2k]

Updated WPC:

[Stratton23]

Euro and CMC keep an cut off upper low out over west texas in the extended range, GFS is far too progressive with the upper level pattern, im thinking a solution between the Euro/ CMC with a cut off low becoming stuck seems more like the right idea, GFS progressive biacy showing yet again

[Brent]

At least we don't live back east... And they usually are cooler than us(for instance they never hit 90 this late like we just did)

No sign of it ending the closer to the east coast you get

I am legit curious if the widespread big totals actually pan out here. Bet anything there's a rain hole nearby

[mmmmsnouts]

DFW luckily caught a little stray shower this morning and broke their 33 day streak without any rain. My kids were amazed to see raindrops hit the windshield while I took them to school.

There have been three such streaks since June 2022. Seems pretty bad!

[snownado]

DFW luckily caught a little stray shower this morning and broke their 33 day streak without any rain. My kids were amazed to see raindrops hit the windshield while I took them to school.

There have been three such streaks since June 2022. Seems pretty bad!

Only a T officially.

Also, DFW set a record maximum low of 74*F this morning (was previously 73*F in 2004).

[wxman22]

The WPC has increased rainfall totals in the latest update.I suspect flood watches will go up for some areas in a few days.

[funster]

DFW luckily caught a little stray shower this morning and broke their 33 day streak without any rain. My kids were amazed to see raindrops hit the windshield while I took them to school.

There have been three such streaks since June 2022. Seems pretty bad!

Only a T officially.

Also, DFW set a record maximum low of 74*F this morning (was previously 73*F in 2004).

It felt unusually warm this morning and yesterday morning. Today felt better thanks to the strong breeze.

[Tireman4]

From the HGX AFD this morning...

Stay tuned, because much cooler temperatures might be entering our area
toward the end of next week.

[Brent]

From the HGX AFD this morning...

Stay tuned, because much cooler temperatures might be entering our area
toward the end of next week.

I'm still not seeing anything I would consider cold here but then again even average temperatures would be way cooler than it has been

[utpmg]

These nightly low temps of 73, 74 at the (checks notes) END OF OCTOBER are nuts. Reminds me of that December in 2021 where the average temps for the month blew the doors off the normals by 12 degrees.

[weatherdude1108]

Not much to report in the short term aside from a possible shot at some sprinkles/showers tomorrow morning here. In the long term, the EWX is mentioning more possibilities next week. We need a parade of storms to happen.

The "Fall foliage" we are seeing around here is, in most cases, the result of drought-stressed trees that are shedding their leaves. There is a big Live Oak in the greenspace adjacent to my yard that is shedding its leaves all over my yard because of the gusty winds blowing them on my grass (like it's Spring when the Live Oak leaves are supposed to be shed because Live Oaks are EVERGREEN, not in the Fall when deciduous trees turn color and shed)! Must be a survival mechanism of the trees. It's so PARCHED around here.

Between long-term drought, flash drought, and recent ice storms, the trees around here don't stand a chance unless you can water them. Anyway.

Last year at this time, it was raining and in the 40s on Halloween. Praying and good vibes for substantial liquid gold at least, followed by chillier weather!


.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

All eyes will be focused on the Pacific Northwest as the next storm
system moves into the western CONUS this weekend. This system will
ultimately bring much cooler temperatures and rainfall to the region
as we move into the beginning to middle of next week.

On Friday, the frontal boundary that moved into the region on
Halloween will become stationary/almost diffuse at the gradient
weakens along the boundary. Easterly flow will continue and will
moist low level flow continuing, low to medium chances for showers
and thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon and continue through
the weekend under a similar flow regime.

By Sunday afternoon, we should see a notable increase in wind speeds
as southerly flow ramps up ahead of what is expected to be our first
decent cold front since the 16th of October. Winds are not expected
to let up much Sunday all the way through Monday ahead of the
arrival of this next cold front. A powerful upper-level low will
slide southward out of Idaho and into the Four Corners by early
Monday. This will set the stage for surface cyclogenesis in the lee
of the Rockies Monday afternoon. That in turn will send a stronger
cold front into our region by late Monday evening, bringing much
cooler temperatures and another shot at rain and storms. We should
have some 40-50 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, along with 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE ahead of the frontal boundary Monday evening. Forecast
soundings show decent lift ahead of the boundary, so a few strong to
severe storms could fire up along the front. It will be very
dependent on timing: If the front moves through late afternoon, the
threat for strong/severe storms is greater as daytime heating will
help with instability, but if the front moves through late evening,
the threat appears more conditional. Beyond Tuesday, our attention
turns to the next storm system that will take shape over the western
CONUS for the middle to end of next week.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[ElectricStorm]

10 hatched expanded south and now includes OKC metro. Could be an interesting evening here

[ElectricStorm]

Trending towards a total bust tornado-wise in the 10 hatched area. I don't even think I've seen a single tornado warning let alone anything confirmed. Hopefully these trends continue

[Brent]

Trending towards a total bust tornado-wise in the 10 hatched area. I don't even think I've seen a single tornado warning let alone anything confirmed. Hopefully these trends continue

Only maybe seems to be south of Miami

Hardly any lightning here in Tulsa. Very beneficial rain finally

[ElectricStorm]

Trending towards a total bust tornado-wise in the 10 hatched area. I don't even think I've seen a single tornado warning let alone anything confirmed. Hopefully these trends continue

Only maybe seems to be south of Miami

Hardly any lightning here in Tulsa. Very beneficial rain finally

Weakening line came through here but was actually pretty nice. Nice to finally get a good storm after like 5 months of endless sun lol

[Throckmorton]

Not much to report in the short term aside from a possible shot at some sprinkles/showers tomorrow morning here. In the long term, the EWX is mentioning more possibilities next week. We need a parade of storms to happen.

The "Fall foliage" we are seeing around here is, in most cases, the result of drought-stressed trees that are shedding their leaves. There is a big Live Oak in the greenspace adjacent to my yard that is shedding its leaves all over my yard because of the gusty winds blowing them on my grass (like it's Spring when the Live Oak leaves are supposed to be shed because Live Oaks are EVERGREEN, not in the Fall when deciduous trees turn color and shed)! Must be a survival mechanism of the trees. It's so PARCHED around here.

Between long-term drought, flash drought, and recent ice storms, the trees around here don't stand a chance unless you can water them. Anyway.

Last year at this time, it was raining and in the 40s on Halloween. Praying and good vibes for substantial liquid gold at least, followed by chillier weather!


.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

All eyes will be focused on the Pacific Northwest as the next storm
system moves into the western CONUS this weekend. This system will
ultimately bring much cooler temperatures and rainfall to the region
as we move into the beginning to middle of next week.

On Friday, the frontal boundary that moved into the region on
Halloween will become stationary/almost diffuse at the gradient
weakens along the boundary. Easterly flow will continue and will
moist low level flow continuing, low to medium chances for showers
and thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon and continue through
the weekend under a similar flow regime.

By Sunday afternoon, we should see a notable increase in wind speeds
as southerly flow ramps up ahead of what is expected to be our first
decent cold front since the 16th of October. Winds are not expected
to let up much Sunday all the way through Monday ahead of the
arrival of this next cold front. A powerful upper-level low will
slide southward out of Idaho and into the Four Corners by early
Monday. This will set the stage for surface cyclogenesis in the lee
of the Rockies Monday afternoon. That in turn will send a stronger
cold front into our region by late Monday evening, bringing much
cooler temperatures and another shot at rain and storms. We should
have some 40-50 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, along with 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE ahead of the frontal boundary Monday evening. Forecast
soundings show decent lift ahead of the boundary, so a few strong to
severe storms could fire up along the front. It will be very
dependent on timing: If the front moves through late afternoon, the
threat for strong/severe storms is greater as daytime heating will
help with instability, but if the front moves through late evening,
the threat appears more conditional. Beyond Tuesday, our attention
turns to the next storm system that will take shape over the western
CONUS for the middle to end of next week.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

During drought, live oaks shed leaves. Other species protect themselves differently.

[CaptinCrunch]

It rained here at the house, but nothing close to what was forecast. Matter of fact I didn't even hear it rain, just that the ground was wet. Normally there would be large puddles of water along the garage, but not the case this morning, so the amount of rain wasn't much. Let's hope this isn't the trend into the weekend and next week.

[snownado]

It rained here at the house, but nothing close to what was forecast. Matter of fact I didn't even hear it rain, just that the ground was wet. Normally there would be large puddles of water along the garage, but not the case this morning, so the amount of rain wasn't much. Let's hope this isn't the trend into the weekend and next week.

Had a solid garden variety storm here. In fact, was awaken by a loud crack of thunder.

[snownado]

These nightly low temps of 73, 74 at the (checks notes) END OF OCTOBER are nuts. Reminds me of that December in 2021 where the average temps for the month blew the doors off the normals by 12 degrees.

After yesterday, DFW is at 76.1*F for the month (a whole 2*F higher than the previous warmest October on record).

That number should come down a bit after today, but still pretty impressive to the extent it was shattered (though not quite December 2021 shattered).