NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion

[Zonacane]

We may have dual rotating VHT

[Sciencerocks]

[Travorum]

It looks like the beginning of a core appears on the latest AMSR scan at approximately 14.5/74.5, about where the 18z best track was. There's deep convection around it but its not really all wrapped around it or cleared out yet.

[fllawyer]

At 11am ET advisory, NHC didn't have Melissa as a hurricane until Saturday at 7pm ET and didn't have winds up to 60mph until after 7pm ET tonight. In addition to adjusting their forecast to account for what appears to be quicker strengthening, wondering if they also up the ceiling (was 150mph at 11am ET advisory).

[aspen]

We may have dual rotating VHT

Eh, not quite yet. Looks to be just the one large convective mass right now, which is backed up by microwave.

[sasha_B]

Concur with aspen that the Best Track point for 18z is solid, but it seems likely that this evening's recon will find it much stronger. We have two consecutive instantaneous ADT fixes of T4.4 now that it's correctly idenitified the center; if that kind of presentation holds for another few hours it could justify moving up the short-term intensity forecast a little. (Raw T#s are unreliable and often total outliers, of course, but in this case it's entirely in line with the sharp upward trend that had been going on before ARCHER missed.)

[MarioProtVI]

DRCL (which NHC 95% of the time follows) has a 135 kt point at 72 hours, and then 120 kt just inland of Jamaica at 96. This all but screams they’re going to heavily allude to the fact that Melissa will likely reach Cat 5 before making landfall in Jamaica. Probably “conservative” as well, because that’s a whole day in between borderline C5 and landfall.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/NickKrasz_Wx/status/1981797519324852567

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Melissa finally has an inner core. Rapid intensification is about to begin.

[abajan]

Soo, after perusing the comments as best as I could to see if anyone had already posted Dr. Cowan's latest update and finding no such post, here it is:



Link: https://youtu.be/0UcuBGeplGU

[CrazyC83]

 https://x.com/AlanSevere/status/1981798279252742538

[CrazyC83]

Melissa finally has an inner core. Rapid intensification is about to begin.

I'm thinking tomorrow is the day it goes up, up and away.

[BobHarlem]

Here's a collection of live video streams from Jamaica cameras
https://www.youtube.com/@SeeJamaica/streams

Folks are definitely busy there, and sometimes one of the cameras shows a supermarket (that's slammed). Another is a stream from the 200+ year old one lane flat bridge in Bog Walk over a river (probably will flood).

[aspen]

DRCL (which NHC 95% of the time follows) has a 135 kt point at 72 hours, and then 120 kt just inland of Jamaica at 96. This all but screams they’re going to heavily allude to the fact that Melissa will likely reach Cat 5 before making landfall in Jamaica. Probably “conservative” as well, because that’s a whole day in between borderline C5 and landfall.

Yep, they went with a 135 kt peak ahead of landfall for 5pm.

They also went with a slightly higher current intensity of 55 kt/995 mbar.

[BobHarlem]

Almost last visibles of the day

[Iceresistance]

I'm starting to get scared now, NHC has 140 mph over Jamaica on the cone

[aspen]

The forecast now shows a 135 kt peak in 60 h, and there is a distinct possibility that Melissa could become a Category 5 hurricane during this time period. In fact, the latest 12z Google DeepMind ensemble distribution shows the majority of its members reaching this lofty intensity.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm starting to get scared now, NHC has 140 mph over Jamaica on the cone

The NHC forecast is as close to as them saying "we think Melissa will hit Jamacia as a Category 5" as they will say for a system for that's only a tropical storm.

[kevin]

Chances are increasing for a historic cat 4/5 landfall on Jamaica. Let's hope Melissa somehow still misses Jamaica, but I'm starting to doubt it now: the center relocation has resolved one of the big short-term uncertainties about Melissa's behavior. She looks primed for RI so if she were to hit Jamaica perhaps the only savior could be a last-minute EWRC still in progress during landfall.

I'm not gonna act hypocritical, of course I'll also be amazed if Melissa becomes a generational storm in terms of intensity. These extraordinary showcases of nature are the reason many of us track storms. But let's all also remember that there are millions of people who are in a very dangerous situation.

[Nimbus]

Here's a collection of live video streams from Jamaica cameras
https://www.youtube.com/@SeeJamaica/streams

Folks are definitely busy there, and sometimes one of the cameras shows a supermarket (that's slammed). Another is a stream from the 200+ year old one lane flat bridge in Bog Walk over a river (probably will flood).

I guess the good news might be if the track shifts far enough south Jamaica might stay out of the core winds for a couple days. Just a foot or two of rain to soften up the soil so the tree roots won't hold. Then with less land interaction a stronger Melissa will be ready to make a faster pass NE over the island.

Its too easy for complacency to set in with the 5 day wait before the hook NE so that might be why the Governor is holding off on the final evacuation orders.