SE TX weather thread #4 - Severe weather Fri/Sat

[Stratosphere747]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
440 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 530 PM CST

* AT 438 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM...
MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOMERVILLE...

[Extremeweatherguy]

now up to 14 tornado reports, 4 hail reports and 1 wind report.

[Extremeweatherguy]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND E TX INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS
EWD TO SWRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 886...

VALID 292309Z - 292345Z

TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO SE AND PARTS OF E TX BY
EARLY EVENING. THUS...NEW TORNADO WATCH BEING CONSIDERED FOR SE TX
AND POTENTIALLY PARTS OF SW LA. THIS NEW WW WILL ALSO INCLUDE VALID
PARTS OF WW 886 TO THE EAST OF COLD FRONT.

LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER
CENTRAL TX IN THE VICINITY OF BOSQUE COUNTY...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD INTO WEST CENTRAL LA. A SECOND WARM FRONT EXTENDED
FROM THE NWRN GULF TO NEAR GLS AND THEN NWWD INTO ANDERSON COUNTY OR
ABOUT 45 SSW TYR. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SECOND
WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
EXISTENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH
VALUES EXCEEDING 400 M2/S2. FURTHER INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER VEERING
WIND PROFILE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER AND EAST OF WW
886 INTO SW LA...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.

PERSISTENT MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR LOW LCLS/LFCS AND ENHANCING TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

[CrazyC83]

Could the next watch be a PDS?

[Stratosphere747]

Very nasty squall line looks to be setting up to the west of Dallas extending to south of San Antonio...

[Stratosphere747]

http://media.myfoxdfw.com/live/index.html

Not in our area, but great streaming coverage out of Dallas.

[southerngale]

They just issued a tornado watch here...not surprisingly.

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 888
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TORNADO WATCH 888 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-005-007-015-021-025-027-035-039-041-051-055-057-071-073-
089-099-123-139-145-149-157-161-167-175-177-183-185-199-201-203-
213-217-221-225-239-241-245-251-285-287-289-291-293-309-313-321-
331-339-347-349-361-365-373-391-395-401-403-405-407-419-423-425-
453-455-457-469-471-473-477-481-491-300800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0888.061229T2340Z-061230T0800Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON ANGELINA ARANSAS
AUSTIN BASTROP BEE
BELL BOSQUE BRAZORIA
BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL
CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE
COLORADO CORYELL DEWITT
ELLIS FALLS FAYETTE
FORT BEND FREESTONE GALVESTON
GOLIAD GONZALES GREGG
GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS
HARRISON HENDERSON HILL
HOOD HOUSTON JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LAVACA LEE LEON
LIBERTY LIMESTONE MADISON
MATAGORDA MCLENNAN MILAM
MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO
ORANGE PANOLA POLK
REFUGIO ROBERTSON RUSK
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO
SHELBY SMITH SOMERVELL
TRAVIS TRINITY TYLER
VICTORIA WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON WILLIAMSON
$$

[Stratosphere747]

Had a feeling they would extend the tornado warning for our area and move it north and east...

Very long night ahead with the dynamics setting up....

[CrazyC83]

Had a feeling they would extend the tornado warning for our area and move it north and east...

Very long night ahead with the dynamics setting up....

That watch should be a PDS in my view, and the probabilities increased for significant severe.

I'd also extend the MDT much eastward across the Louisiana border with a 15-hatched.

What a way to end 2006! We sure had a lot of wild moments...

[Stratosphere747]

No question Crazy.

I think the SPC is just trying to gather their breath right now...

[southerngale]

What a way to end 2006! We sure had a lot of wild moments...

First Rita, then fires in the spring, followed by quite a few flooding events here during the summer and this fall. I've had to evacuate my home due to weather events more in the past year+ than I had for all previous events combined. I don't even know what "normal" weather is anymore.

[CrazyC83]

What a way to end 2006! We sure had a lot of wild moments...

First Rita, then fires in the spring, followed by quite a few flooding events here during the summer and this fall. I've had to evacuate my home due to weather events more in the past year+ than I had for all previous events combined. I don't even know what "normal" weather is anymore.

Yeah, I mean on a national and worldwide scale though but that too...

[CrazyC83]

No question Crazy.

I think the SPC is just trying to gather their breath right now...

Yes, I was quite surprised myself to see the activity so fast this afternoon - expecting a later start. Now I almost think a High Risk is warranted, but I highly doubt the SPC will do that.

[Stratosphere747]

Latest from SPC and not encourging...


DISCUSSION...STRONG INFLUX OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES INTO
ERN TX AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER JET AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR/HELICITY AND LOW LCLS PRESENT.
WITH MLCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

[CrazyC83]

Latest from SPC and not encourging...


DISCUSSION...STRONG INFLUX OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES INTO
ERN TX AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER JET AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR/HELICITY AND LOW LCLS PRESENT.
WITH MLCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

Yeah, this may very well become a major outbreak. When was the last major outbreak in December???

[Stratosphere747]

Kelly...

Don't be surprised to see some warnings hoisted for your area with the storms coming in off the Gulf in the next hour or so....

[Extremeweatherguy]

you can really see that developing squall line here:

[Stratosphere747]

Latest from SPC and not encourging...


DISCUSSION...STRONG INFLUX OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES INTO
ERN TX AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER JET AND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR/HELICITY AND LOW LCLS PRESENT.
WITH MLCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG...TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

Yeah, this may very well become a major outbreak. When was the last major outbreak in December???

On this level and for this time of year?

Been quite sometime.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

The immediate Houston area seems to be in the middle of a dry zone between two big areas of storminess right now. Enjoy it while it lasts though because I am sure this is not what it will look like in a few hours!

BTW: I am going to go ahead and start a new thread since we are now at the end of the 25th page.

[jasons2k]