ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4801 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:34 pm

Heck! The 00z GFS didn't even initialize the intensity right, 967mb? :roll:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4802 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:37 pm

0z GFS shows Matthew kind of going back and forth between NW and NE jogs ... through 24 hours and favoring the Hati side of the gap.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4803 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:39 pm

Through 30 hours ... BOOM .. The W side of Hati devastated ... essentially the same spot as 0z last night and 12z this afternoon.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4804 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:42 pm

toad strangler wrote:Through 30 hours ... BOOM .. The W side of Hati devastated

Image


This Frame right here should be enough to retire Matthew come season end.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4805 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:44 pm

Extreme E tip of Cuba through 42. Matthew doing his best to avoid terra firma.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4806 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:47 pm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=254.4

NOT liking what I think i'm seeing. Copy/paste this 54 hr. GFS. At least temporarily looks to be tilting NW now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4807 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:48 pm

GFS on track with recent runs through 54

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4808 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:51 pm

Through 60 hours 00z GFS right on track (maybe a touch NE) with previous runs today into the C Bahamas
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4809 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:54 pm

72 hr. No change. Steadfast and nearly exactly on its same prior 18Z and 12Z run location. I wont bother to post the 72 map given the zero variance from the previous run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4810 Postby Lifeless » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:54 pm

78hrs has it slightly NW of 18z path. Wonder if that's going to continue shortly.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4811 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:55 pm

72 hours

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4812 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:59 pm

Alyono, I know you are around here somewhere. Please talk some sense into the Ukmet before posting it.


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4813 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:00 pm

84 hours slightly more progressive to the NNW

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4814 Postby WHYB630 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:00 pm

The logic of 00z GFS seems like: stronger ridge -> stronger steering -> a little faster movement for Matthew
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4815 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:01 pm

Link below for 84hr. 0Z GFS. Very very consistent with its prior runs. Looks to be about 936mb at this point. 90 hr. just came out and Matthew seems to be behaving nicely with not surprises on this model run. Looks like, next stop Carolina's. Lets hope it doesn't pull any surprises here either.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=254.4
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4816 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:02 pm

MU is significantly faster this run. This MAY allow it to get a little closer to the coast before making its northeast turn
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4817 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:08 pm

WHYB630 wrote:The logic of 00z GFS seems like: stronger ridge -> stronger steering -> a little faster movement for Matthew


Pretty much. I'm just hoping that GFS aptly has the trajectory motion right. Hopefully Matthew pulls north quickly enough before high pressure begins to not only build to its east, but before high pressure builds in strong enough to the storms north which could pose the risk of a more pronounced WNW or NW motion.

108 hr's now - still pacing on prior course more or less, moving NNW toward Carolina's with a hint of a more northward component maybe.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=254.4
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4818 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:09 pm

Trough coming out of the Rockies is quite a bit slower and less amplified this run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4819 Postby WHYB630 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:09 pm

00z GFS t@114: Ridge, Mid-west trough, NE high are ALL different from 18z run. Let's see how all play the role
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4820 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:10 pm

Gonna smack OBX this run. Ridge difference is night and day from 18z.
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