ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[dwg71]

cat5, that image is 3 hours old. 1315Z and its now 1615Z

[ktulu909]

I hate to ask a question that has been asked three times already,but it has not been addressed.

First and foremost,I am NOT referring to Hannah.

Is there any potential for gustav to interact with Invest 96L as far as affecting the projected path?If they do get close enough to interact in any way,how would they?Would Gustav draw 96L northerly or could the opposite happen and Gustav take a more westerly course?This storm is turning into Fay part 2 as far as trying to figure out where it wants to go and I am just curious as to what (if any) effect 96L could have on this storm.

Thanks,
Blaine in Gretna

[Mattie]

News from NO, LA - -

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin left the Democratic National Convention in Denver to return home for the preparations. Gov. Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency to lay the groundwork for federal assistance, and put 3,000 National Guard troops on standby.

If a Category 3 or stronger hurricane comes within 60 hours of the city, New Orleans plans to institute a mandatory evacuation order. Unlike Katrina, there will be no massive shelter at the Superdome, a plan designed to encourage residents to leave. Instead, the state has arranged for buses and trains to take people to safety.

It was unclear what would happen to stragglers. Jerry Sneed, the city's emergency preparedness director, said officials are ready to move about 30,000 people. Nearly 8,000 people had signed up for transportation help by late Wednesday.

[Sanibel]

Microwave puts the eye slightly south of the visible satellite. Should rough-up Kingston a little.

[KWT]

Yep dwg71 and if anything its more developed since that image willbe taken.

Going to be a very close call as to whether recon gets to the system in time to sample the inner core before it goes inland, I think they should do a N-S pass right away as it may be the only chance to get a fix on the pressure.

[RL3AO]

I hate to ask a question that has been asked three times already,but it has not been addressed.

First and foremost,I am NOT referring to Hannah.

Is there any potential for gustav to interact with Invest 96L as far as affecting the projected path?If they do get close enough to interact in any way,how would they?Would Gustav draw 96L northerly or could the opposite happen and Gustav take a more westerly course?This storm is turning into Fay part 2 as far as trying to figure out where it wants to go and I am just curious as to what (if any) effect 96L could have on this storm.

Thanks,
Blaine in Gretna

You will probably get a better answer if you asked that in the TA forums.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102703

[ConvergenceZone]

I hate to ask a question that has been asked three times already,but it has not been addressed.

First and foremost,I am NOT referring to Hannah.

Is there any potential for gustav to interact with Invest 96L as far as affecting the projected path?If they do get close enough to interact in any way,how would they?Would Gustav draw 96L northerly or could the opposite happen and Gustav take a more westerly course?This storm is turning into Fay part 2 as far as trying to figure out where it wants to go and I am just curious as to what (if any) effect 96L could have on this storm.

Thanks,
Blaine in Gretna

Yea, nobody seems to mentioning the invest in the gulf, which is suprising, and the potential shear it may create for Gustav

[Category 5]

cat5, that image is 3 hours old. 1315Z and its now 1615Z

I just saw that, sadly I'm not finding a new one. I'm sure it looks even better now.

[Nederlander]

I think its pretty much heading due west down the spine of the island as everyone else is saying. There are some fairly decent sized mountions though Gustav probably won't be spending a huge amount of time near the peaks unlike when Haiti did a number on it.

Inner core looks very well developed now, I'll be shocked recon doesn't find a hurricane now.

Gonna be tough with center over land... I would not expect a hurricane by 4PM, jmo. I also expect a center reform to the north of the islands coast in the next 6-12 hours.

What suggests a center reform to the north?

[senorpepr]

^bump^

[Just Joshing You]

Nothing suggests it.

[jasons2k]

I think its pretty much heading due west down the spine of the island as everyone else is saying. There are some fairly decent sized mountions though Gustav probably won't be spending a huge amount of time near the peaks unlike when Haiti did a number on it.

Inner core looks very well developed now, I'll be shocked recon doesn't find a hurricane now.

Gonna be tough with center over land... I would not expect a hurricane by 4PM, jmo. I also expect a center reform to the north of the islands coast in the next 6-12 hours.

What suggests a center reform to the north?

There won't be a center reformation with a cyclone that is this well-developed.

The LLC may get ripped to shreds but the mid-upper levels will remain intact. Technically, yes, the LLC may quickly reform back under the MLC, but it's not the same thing as a center reformation/relocation as we see with very weak & disorganized systems.

[Sanibel]

Look at the flat top to Gus under the High.

[gboudx]

I hate to ask a question that has been asked three times already,but it has not been addressed.

First and foremost,I am NOT referring to Hannah.

Is there any potential for gustav to interact with Invest 96L as far as affecting the projected path?If they do get close enough to interact in any way,how would they?Would Gustav draw 96L northerly or could the opposite happen and Gustav take a more westerly course?This storm is turning into Fay part 2 as far as trying to figure out where it wants to go and I am just curious as to what (if any) effect 96L could have on this storm.

Thanks,
Blaine in Gretna

Yea, nobody seems to mentioning the invest in the gulf, which is suprising, and the potential shear it may create for Gustav

It's been asked in the Invest 96L thread with only comment about it being gone before Gustav knows it's there. But who knows?

[tolakram]

Looks to be very close to landfall.



In the loop, the last few frames, you can see what appears to be the center.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[KWT]

Yeah there will be no reformation now, the inner core probably will weaken a little overland but this time land will not ruin the core like Haiti did. I've never known a near hurricane to relocate a center before, don't think this be the first either

[Air Force Met]

There won't be a center reformation with a cyclone that is this well-developed.

The LLC may get ripped to shreds but the mid-upper levels will remain intact. Technically, yes, the LLC may quickly reform back under the MLC, but it's not the same thing as a center reformation/relocation as we see with very weak & disorganized systems.

Agreed. Centers don't reform on 983 mb lows. The only way this sees a center reformation is if it moves along the length of Jamaica and falls apart again...and then another convective blob forms. Even then its not so much as a reformation as the center moving to the convection.

[KWT]

Yep tolakram very close, don't think recon will get there in time to fix the pressure sadly.

Does look rather flat on the northern quadrant, not really any convection there at all just the blow up from the northern eyewall which has gone over the top of the developing shallow eye.

[Javlin]

There won't be a center reformation with a cyclone that is this well-developed.

The LLC may get ripped to shreds but the mid-upper levels will remain intact. Technically, yes, the LLC may quickly reform back under the MLC, but it's not the same thing as a center reformation/relocation as we see with very weak & disorganized systems.

Agreed. Centers don't reform on 983 mb lows. The only way this sees a center reformation is if it moves along the length of Jamaica and falls apart again...and then another convective blob forms. Even then its not so much as a reformation as the center moving to the convection.

This is what must happened last night then because at one point you could clearly see the LLC on IF2 just were the NHC stated then it was S this morning.Learn every day.Kevin

[Sanibel]

Looks like Jamaica has already affected Gus' core.