ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

Yeah looking at that radar, it does seem to be moving west. Illusion?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Is it safe to say if the trend continues we may have a hurricane at 2pm?

[RL3AO]

Is it safe to say if the trend continues we may have a hurricane at 2pm?

IMO that might be a bit quick. I'd wager this evening though.

[Aric Dunn]

on radar it does not look like its strengthening nor do any of the wind reports point to it. still moving nw.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

on radar it does not look like its strengthening nor do any of the wind reports point to it.

Recon should be telling...

[Aric Dunn]

on radar it does not look like its strengthening nor do any of the wind reports point to it.

Recon should be telling...

recon can give us a accurate center fix but with it being so close the radar station we have plenty of data to go off without recon.

[miamijaaz]

Looks like it will pass over the Keys between Marathon and Key West.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Check this data out!
150900 2426N 08105W 8426 01505 0033 +144 +125 070038 040 055 035 00
150930 2425N 08104W 8436 01489 0024 +152 +123 078035 043 056 022 00
151000 2424N 08103W 8419 01507 0022 +153 +122 070038 040 055 021 00
151030 2423N 08102W 8429 01497 0021 +160 +123 078036 040 053 013 00
151100 2421N 08101W 8435 01487 0009 +171 +124 084040 043 052 012 00

[Jagno]

Well, I'm solidly in the new 5 day cone of uncertainty.

what is your location

[ballred]

In response to some earlier questions, it looks like there is a small dry slot running sw to ne from just south of Homestead to right at Miami proper on my RadarScope iPad app. That said, there is a large feeder band current located over the Gulf Stream with a number of marked cells headed that way that should be on shore at around 1:30. At the current end of one of these cell tracks a stationed at Fowey Rocks reported winds of 58 mph at 11:00. If it's not raining and blowing yet, it will be.

[MGC]

Nothing like waking up under a hurricane watch....WOW, significant shift in the forecast track...kinda thought that would happen with the shift in the models last night...now over Gulfport MS for the 11 am advisory. At this rate the track will be in Louisiana but that is total speculation..... We'll start securing the property after we get back from church. This almost reminds me of Katrina.....huge shift to the west. Hopefully the NHC is high on the intensity......MGC


The above is the opinion of MGC and not a official forecast.

[RL3AO]

[GCANE]

OTs continue to fire north of the LLC

http://tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/c ... &lon=-80.5



Moving into a ridge of unstable air

Currently CAPE = 4000, LI = -7

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... nderlay=1#

[Recurve]

KW radar, circled where bands are clearly rotating around, my guess at the center at this time.



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Overcast in St. Pete now, no squalls yet but bands are not far to the south.

[orion]

I have to share this graphic from the Melbourne NWS. I love it!

Yes, I love the blog updates and graphics that the Melbourne NWS puts out. I know Scott (not sure if he is on Storm2K or not) and although I haven't met Tony yet, he is on Storm2K. Good group of people and it is a good site to check out if you are in the east central Florida area.

[Aric Dunn]

until we see convection build around the center and some curved bands it wont be intensifying much. appears looking at radar that it may be trying to now that there is convection developing on the south side. just have to wait and see.

[wxwatcher1999]

if its has any northerly movement its not much....to my untrained eyes

[SoupBone]

[img]Winter is Coming.

If only this were happening right now.

So historically, which models are the most accurate at predicting ridges and troughs? It seems like the key will be the ridging to the west and how fast it erodes if the trough doesn't pull down quick enough. Thoughts?

[chaser1]

Isaac will not amount to much of anything (rains and some wind) for South Florida and the Keys. It may be a different story as he heads north.

But this storm has always had issues in development and whether it is dry air or multiple lows or whatever. It has been an underachiever which is fine with me.

But unfortunately this is what folks remember the next time there is a threat.

Better safe than sorry... Anyone who has experienced tracks changing know to keep tight eye on updates.
Also, agree with what others has said.. small storms still kill and cause damage... Seems there is always someone looking for a thrill and depressed when its not what "they" want and immature to say the least..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

'mornin folks. First post here with regards to this "event" here in S. Florida, though have posted here on occassion in the past. Having left a less active weather forum site and feeling a bit orpaned Lot more family members here though and feeling more like home
As for Isaac - I do think that this storm will deepen further as it's inner core continues to distance itself from the Cuban coast late today/tonight. Like many others here, I have watched (chased) many hurricane over time and every once in a while am also perplexed by either unexpected rapid development or lack therof. Here in South Miami Dade County (approx. 6 miles wests of the coast), we have experienced little weather of note and perhaps one squall that might have contained a gust to tropical storm force strength. However NHC need air on the side of caution and we will likely receive some stronger squalls as Isaac deepens and our flow becomes more out of the South. That all said, my concern is the "over-kill" hype that the media often exploits and then those less informed do not head warnings.

[orion]

For those interested I just switched from KMLB radar to KBYX from the Keys... It will be a little 'jumpy' until it gets a few more scans from KBYX but then you should see a nice loop of the radar along with METAR/BUOY stations superimposed on a visible satellite image.

http://orionweather.net/mradarR.php