Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Arctic Thunder]

This is definitely a classic ice storm pattern over the Deep South for the first 2-3 week of Feb...

-NAO/-AO (continued cold air spillage from Canada
-PNA (upper air "troughing") over W N.A. and plenty of Pac and Gulf moisture
-EPO (upper air ridging over AK into NW Canada ) a further sign of more cold air spillage

This is also one of the more difficult type of weather patterns to forecast since we are trying to gauge the intensity of cold air surges out of Canada more than 5 days in advance with southern stream disturbances. Overall the tools are in place for a very impactful winter event(s) in the weeks to come over the S and E U.S.

Should be interesting and quite challenging...Here's rule of Good rule of thumb I like to use this time of year for judging winter precipitation events over the S Plains and L Mississippi Valley based on the strength of the Arctic high crossing the Canadian/U.S. Border...

• Arctic high 1030 I-40 corridor
• Arctic high 1040 I-20 corridor
• Arctic high 1050 I-10 corridor

As I recall we still have not seen a 1050mb yet this winter season...We may finally do that in Feb...We shall see...

[orangeblood]

]This is definitely a classic ice storm pattern over the Deep South for the first 2-3 week of Feb...

-NAO/-AO (continued cold air spillage from Canada
-PNA (upper air "troughing") over W N.A. and plenty of Pac and Gulf moisture
-EPO (upper air ridging over AK into NW Canada ) a further sign of more cold air spillage

This is also one of the more difficult type of weather patterns to forecast since we are trying to gauge the intensity of cold air surges out of Canada more than 5 days in advance with southern stream disturbances. Overall the tools are in place for a very impactful winter event(s) in the weeks to come over the S and E U.S.

Should be interesting and quite challenging...Here's rule of Good rule of thumb I like to use this time of year for judging winter precipitation events over the S Plains and L Mississippi Valley based on the strength of the Arctic high crossing the Canadian/U.S. Border...

• Arctic high 1030 I-40 corridor
• Arctic high 1040 I-20 corridor
• Arctic high 1050 I-10 corridor

As I recall we still have not seen a 1050mb yet this winter season...We may finally do that in Feb...We shall see...

Thank you and great insight! These are great rules of thumb...if you follow the ensemble runs closely, you can really see what setups deliver and where. Even if they never come close to verifying, it keys you onto what to look for - the strength of the Arctic HPs is definitely a common denominator for where!!

[Snowman67]

]This is definitely a classic ice storm pattern over the Deep South for the first 2-3 week of Feb...

-NAO/-AO (continued cold air spillage from Canada
-PNA (upper air "troughing") over W N.A. and plenty of Pac and Gulf moisture
-EPO (upper air ridging over AK into NW Canada ) a further sign of more cold air spillage

This is also one of the more difficult type of weather patterns to forecast since we are trying to gauge the intensity of cold air surges out of Canada more than 5 days in advance with southern stream disturbances. Overall the tools are in place for a very impactful winter event(s) in the weeks to come over the S and E U.S.

Should be interesting and quite challenging...Here's rule of Good rule of thumb I like to use this time of year for judging winter precipitation events over the S Plains and L Mississippi Valley based on the strength of the Arctic high crossing the Canadian/U.S. Border...

• Arctic high 1030 I-40 corridor
• Arctic high 1040 I-20 corridor
• Arctic high 1050 I-10 corridor

As I recall we still have not seen a 1050mb yet this winter season...We may finally do that in Feb...We shall see...

Thanks for sharing that! Easy to remember.

[dhweather]

]This is definitely a classic ice storm pattern over the Deep South for the first 2-3 week of Feb...

-NAO/-AO (continued cold air spillage from Canada
-PNA (upper air "troughing") over W N.A. and plenty of Pac and Gulf moisture
-EPO (upper air ridging over AK into NW Canada ) a further sign of more cold air spillage

This is also one of the more difficult type of weather patterns to forecast since we are trying to gauge the intensity of cold air surges out of Canada more than 5 days in advance with southern stream disturbances. Overall the tools are in place for a very impactful winter event(s) in the weeks to come over the S and E U.S.

Should be interesting and quite challenging...Here's rule of Good rule of thumb I like to use this time of year for judging winter precipitation events over the S Plains and L Mississippi Valley based on the strength of the Arctic high crossing the Canadian/U.S. Border...

• Arctic high 1030 I-40 corridor
• Arctic high 1040 I-20 corridor
• Arctic high 1050 I-10 corridor

As I recall we still have not seen a 1050mb yet this winter season...We may finally do that in Feb...We shall see...

Your avatar is great!

[Brent]

Euro for Thursday rain, maybe a brief mix in N TX at the very end but definitely not what the GFS showed

[Cpv17]

The front next week is really lacking cold air. Most of it stays locked up north. It seems like we can’t get anything to drive it down here.

[mcheer23]

Euro for Thursday rain, maybe a brief mix in N TX at the very end but definitely not what the GFS showed

Yup, quite unimpressed by the EURO..but we're still a week out...

[Lagreeneyes03]

Euro for Thursday rain, maybe a brief mix in N TX at the very end but definitely not what the GFS showed

Of course it is.....that's the way it always turns out, too. "No wintery precip expected, just a Cold Rain"............

[bubba hotep]

Surprise, surprise... 12z Euro, the Northern Stream absolutely dominates the system next week and we end up with a positive tilted trough that is shearing out into the base of a GL low. Sometimes you just can't beat pattern persistence.

[orangeblood]

Cue the DEFEATISTS on 3...2...1....!!

[Brent]

the Euro isn't even cold

???

[Tireman4]

]This is definitely a classic ice storm pattern over the Deep South for the first 2-3 week of Feb...

-NAO/-AO (continued cold air spillage from Canada
-PNA (upper air "troughing") over W N.A. and plenty of Pac and Gulf moisture
-EPO (upper air ridging over AK into NW Canada ) a further sign of more cold air spillage

This is also one of the more difficult type of weather patterns to forecast since we are trying to gauge the intensity of cold air surges out of Canada more than 5 days in advance with southern stream disturbances. Overall the tools are in place for a very impactful winter event(s) in the weeks to come over the S and E U.S.

Should be interesting and quite challenging...Here's rule of Good rule of thumb I like to use this time of year for judging winter precipitation events over the S Plains and L Mississippi Valley based on the strength of the Arctic high crossing the Canadian/U.S. Border...

• Arctic high 1030 I-40 corridor
• Arctic high 1040 I-20 corridor
• Arctic high 1050 I-10 corridor

As I recall we still have not seen a 1050mb yet this winter season...We may finally do that in Feb...We shall see...

Finally, a voice of reason. A lone uttering of the love of Winter. A man, not afraid to take on Lord Dark Vader of Summer. A man who chortles derisively at those meteorologists who think that a day should start in the 100s..LOL. Great write up sir.

[rwfromkansas]

Rooting for the GFS to be correct this time....not jumping on board until the Euro caves to the GFS if it does (not often...)

[Cerlin]

I think this is just a crappy run for the Euro. Not gonna put any stock in one run.

[TheProfessor]

Ummm. I'm going to have to ask for the 12z FV3. We might be playing tug-of-war with this storm. I need a weak Southeast ridge to keep this storm from being suppressed. North Texas would probably like stronger south east ridge with a deeper trough as you could get a storm to ramp up and dump snow on the backside, but something like that would cut west of me. There's of course, the option for a suppressed system, North Texans could cash in, but they can also get screwed as you guys saw last year. So sorry south Texas but if I'm going to miss out on a storm I'd rather miss on a cutter with a chance of storms(and a DFW snowtorm) than miss on a suppressed system).

You can probably tell I'm a little bit jaded. It's been way too cold with very little snow pack here. Every time we do get snow it melts a couple of days later If my snow is going to melt I want it done at 65 degrees like last February and not 37 degrees. This is why I want to move east, too dry here in Ohio.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS looks like a slight improvement over 00z but not as good as 12z yesterday.

[orangeblood]

12z Euro EPS looks like a slight improvement over 00z but not as good as 12z yesterday.

The bundling of energy in the northern stream is definitely a concern!!

[Brent]

I feel like I've seen this movie before

Half the gfs ensembles are crazy snowy and the euro is not impressed

Hopefully being February(you know everyone said wait til February) things will turn out different this time but I'm not convinced for sure. Maybe this weekend will have some clarity one way or the other

[wxman57]

I would suggest monitoring the source region in western Canada for clues. Current temps there are not very cold at all. Watch to see if that changes over the next 4-5 days.

[orangeblood]

I would suggest monitoring the source region in western Canada for clues. Current temps there are not very cold at all. Watch to see if that changes over the next 4-5 days.

Doesn't appear to be biggest concern at this point (cold appears to be coming), don't you think it's more moisture return/suppression question than anything!!