Texas Winter 2025-2026

[opticsguy]

The latest HRRR right now is juiced up holy moly

Spots near and above half an inch of ice in Travis and Williamson Counties by 5 am with precip still falling is approaching catastrophe levels. If Austin area modelled too warm and there will be more sleet than ice, it just means power outage levels of ice will fall in the San Antonio area.
https://i.imgur.com/zRNidmU.png

Gotta say that model seems way off the mark if it’s forecasting almost half an inch of freezing rain in DFW. Last night was supposed to be the freezing rain phase up here and we barely got any, it was pretty much all sleet.

20 miles NE of Tyler and the temperature has actually risen to 32F in the last 2 hours. Just drove on slushy roads to get a loaf of bread.

[cheezyWXguy]

18Z HRRR is still a bit behind the trends. It still shows icing near DFW and I suspect that should be all snow and all sleet. Or my mention of the heaviest icing probably being a county or three too far N still seems quite plausible. If SAT misses a major ice storm it looks to be more about heavier precip being N of I-10 than where the freeze line gets.

Yeah I've been thinking the same thing. Up here, it would seem that the window for freezing rain has largely passed. 18z HRRR puts down a band of up to 0.75" more qpf in the metro between now and 9am, which would be about 1.5-2.5" of sleet, or considerably more if we can mix with or change over to snow early. Probably not super likely, but there's a chance.

[Stonewood Ranch]

18Z HRRR is still a bit behind the trends. It still shows icing near DFW and I suspect that should be all snow and all sleet. Or my mention of the heaviest icing probably being a county or three too far N still seems quite plausible. If SAT misses a major ice storm it looks to be more about heavier precip being N of I-10 than where the freeze line gets.

Yeah I've been thinking the same thing. Up here, it would seem that the window for freezing rain has largely passed. 18z HRRR puts down a band of up to 0.75" more qpf in the metro between now and 9am, which would be about 1.5-2.5" of sleet, or considerably more if we can mix with or change over to snow early. Probably not super likely, but there's a chance.

Have the tv on TWC about 15 minutes ago and they have a reporter in a downtown Dallas neighborhood reporting on current conditions and that last big cell passing though was all sleet.

[TomballEd]

Spots near and above half an inch of ice in Travis and Williamson Counties by 5 am with precip still falling is approaching catastrophe levels. If Austin area modelled too warm and there will be more sleet than ice, it just means power outage levels of ice will fall in the San Antonio area.
https://i.imgur.com/zRNidmU.png

Gotta say that model seems way off the mark if it’s forecasting almost half an inch of freezing rain in DFW. Last night was supposed to be the freezing rain phase up here and we barely got any, it was pretty much all sleet.

20 miles NE of Tyler and the temperature has actually risen to 32F in the last 2 hours. Just drove on slushy roads to get a loaf of bread.

Break in precip on SHV radar and more sun getting through the clouds is probably doing it. Unless it rains so hard it pulls some of the warm nose warmth to the surface, it should fall again when precip starts and insolation drops and especially when the sun angle gets lower. 1 pm airport sounding is still sub-freezing (barely). May be a subtle reinforcing front on the way judging by DFW temps and dewpoints.

[Cpv17]

Next week still appears to be on track according to the NWS

[Fifty Rock]

This cold has staying power. Still 13* outside and only moved about .5* since this morning.

[R2C89]

Currently sitting at 19F here in Frisco with a pretty decent sleet shower going on. Have some small flakes starting to mix in

[bubba hotep]

Roads have turned white with this last round of sleet showers.

Looking at radar, it looks like we will now see on and off sleet showers until the main show arrives later this evening.

[Iceresistance]

I had 4-5 inches last night, now I got sleet/snow mix.

It's super hard to properly measure the snow, it's all drifted!

10°F

[JDawg512]

We have a slight coating of ice here at the Rain Cave. Temp is 28 according to my thermometer so it's lower than originally forecasted by this time.

[Ntxw]

Roads have turned white with this last round of sleet showers.

Looking at radar, it looks like we will now see on and off sleet showers until the main show arrives later this evening.

If we get can the turnover to snow quicker later with these temps, would be fun ratios.

[gpsnowman]

Roads have turned white with this last round of sleet showers.

Looking at radar, it looks like we will now see on and off sleet showers until the main show arrives later this evening.

If we get can the turnover to snow quicker later with these temps, would be fun ratios.

Dream scenario.

[bbowman7]

In Henderson (east of Tyler, south of Longview) - quite a bit of sleet and some freezing rain earlier. Nothing like what I expected though. Roads are drivable for the most part.

Saying we will get more later. We were evidently in the area that would just get hammered but maybe we missed it.

Temp is 32. Been rising past couple of hours.

[Ntxw]

In Henderson (east of Tyler, south of Longview) - quite a bit of sleet and some freezing rain earlier. Nothing like what I expected though. Roads are drivable for the most part.

Saying we will get more later. We were evidently in the area that would just get hammered but maybe we missed it.

Temp is 32. Been rising past couple of hours.

What's happening out there is usually where DFW sits. We lucked out winds shifted N/NW where cold bleeds much easier. East has been seeing a N/NE wind which hasn't allowed it too get colder as quick. There's definitely some kind of effect going on with warm pooling north where there is a NE wind. Ozarks? Ouachita? Maybe they don't just slow cold but also pool warmth? Good things to try and answer.

[bubba hotep]

Euro has another big winter storm in the longer range

[Gotwood]

I don’t want to get too ahead but I’m wondering if it could possibly be a precursor to tonight. Just had a legitimate snow shower roll through no sleet just snow. It wasn’t huge flakes but it gave me hope.

[JayDT]

Another good sleet shower in southwest Dallas county right now

[bubba hotep]

I don’t want to get too ahead but I’m wondering if it could possibly be a precursor to tonight. Just had a legitimate snow shower roll through no sleet just snow. It wasn’t huge flakes but it gave me hope.

I hope so! Certainly, there will be no freezing rain like the 12z hi-res runs were showing across DFW.

[Snowman67]

Some rumbles of thunder here. 37.6F IMBY

[gpsnowman]

Another good sleet shower in southwest Dallas county right now

Just about to post this. I'm in Grand Prairie. With more on the way.