Caribbean - Central America Weather

[FireBird]

hope everyone in PR is being careful

My sentiments too MsBee.
PR has had a rough couple days.
Just an update on the rain event that happened in TT last Tuesday-Wednesday:

Tens of thousands of persons were marooned in their homes for a couple days.
Millions of dollars of crops and livestock were lost
A couple homes lost in landslides in Tobago
One man drowned in the flood waters.....

My dear friends - the call is really on for us to exercise due care and to spread our message of being well informed and well prepared.
Cycloneye, thanks for all that you're doing....

[cycloneye]

Finnally some good news as the flash flood watch that was in effect for all of Puerto Rico has been lifted for the Southern part of the island.The rest will remain in the watch until Minday afternoon.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
957 PM AST SUN MAY 30 2010

PRZ001-002-004>006-008>010-311000-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-100531T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-NORTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...
DORADO...COAMO...COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...
AGUADILLA...ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...
SABANA GRANDE...LARES...ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...
LUYANDO
957 PM AST SUN MAY 30 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
CENTRAL INTERIOR...EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...
NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY AND
WESTERN INTERIOR.

* THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

* THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE
WEATHER OF THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY LATE TOMORROW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO TRADE EASTERLIES TO THE REGION
TOMORROW WITH A MORE TYPICAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR LATE MAY. WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO...THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD
CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND WITH THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND THE MOST FAVORED. WHILE THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS THE SATURATED SOILS AND THE ABOVE NORMAL STREAM AND
RIVER FLOW STILL SUGGEST THAT THE FLOODING THREAT IS NOT
COMPLETELY OVER.

* THE AREAS AT GREATEST RISK TOMORROW OF EXPERIENCING FLOODING ARE
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO AND CULEBRINAS RIVER
BASINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, thanks for all that you're doing....

Thank you Firebird for those words.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all. The good weather returns starting tommorow.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 310947
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST MON MAY 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN
CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL COMBINE WITH AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS...TO PRODUCE A GENERALLY FAIR AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL BE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
SATURATED SOILS AND ABOVE NORMAL STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND NEW FLOODING...
WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE...WHERE IT
CURRENTLY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON. AS
MENTIONED...SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY...BUT STILL WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT WITH MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE.
THEN...MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...BUT STILL WITH LIMITED DIURNAL
ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL BECOME MORE
HAZY...AS THE FA RECEIVES AT LEAST A PART OF A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER...AND IT WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL WIND FLOW WILL BECOME SE AROUND 10 KTS BY
31/18Z...FOCUSING AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. AS A RESULT...TEMPORARY MVFR...OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDS...
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ FROM 31/18-31/23Z...
WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN
MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS TODAY.

[msbee]

hope everyone in PR is being careful

My sentiments too MsBee.
PR has had a rough couple days.
Just an update on the rain event that happened in TT last Tuesday-Wednesday:

Tens of thousands of persons were marooned in their homes for a couple days.
Millions of dollars of crops and livestock were lost
A couple homes lost in landslides in Tobago
One man drowned in the flood waters.....

My dear friends - the call is really on for us to exercise due care and to spread our message of being well informed and well prepared.
Cycloneye, thanks for all that you're doing....

I didn't realize TT had all those problems. You went from drought to floods. It's either too little or too much.
what a shame!
And Agatha was a short lived tropical storm and look what she did to Guatemala and El Salvador.
My thoughts go out to the people there also.

Yes, the call is definitely on for all of us to stay informed and be prepared.
and Cycloneye deserves a medal for all he does to keep us informed.

[tropicana]

cycloneeye is like a powerhouse here on this weatherboard, like a superstar. An enormous wealth of information indeed. THANKS for all you do

[cycloneye]

Here is a web cam from Belize that is now at the big album first post of thread.

Oh Justin,I am only a facilitator of information to the members as all come and post their observations

[caribepr]

And he's humble too. Luis rocks!

What crazy weather. The ground is totally saturated. But compared to Guatemala I have no complaints

[cycloneye]

And he's humble too. Luis rocks!

What crazy weather. The ground is totally saturated. But compared to Guatemala I have no complaints

Hey,look who is here,Mj. Welcome back.

[caribepr]

Good to be back...I'm going to be spending the summer working in Maine, so I'll be depending even more (if that is possible) on S2K and you in particular, Luis, since I won't be able to have Culebra sand in my shoes! Let's hope it will just be good visuals out at sea <knockin' on wood>

[cycloneye]

JU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST MON MAY 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED UNTIL A
TROUGH DIGS IN OVER HISPANIOLA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS FORMS A
CUT-OFF LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE
EAST WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. MID LAYERS WILL DRY ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
DRY UNTIL SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE HAS FORMED JUST NORTH OF 20 NORTH
AND CLOUD COVER FROM THIS BAND HAS EXPANDED TO COVER MOST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH AS HIGHER PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME MOISTURE RETURNS AFTER
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PRESENCE OF A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH
AND THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AT MID LEVELS THAT IT HAS BROUGHT
HAS DIMINISHED AND RETARDED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS HAVE FORMED FROM SAN JUAN TO
AGUADA...BUT AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. THIS IS
NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND HAVE DECIDED TO
CANCEL IT WITH THE ZONE PACKAGE ISSUANCE. WOULD HAVE CANCELED IT
SOONER...BUT EVEN MODEST SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD HAVE TRIGGERED A
MUDSLIDE IN VERY SATURATED SOILS AND SO HELD OFF UNTIL A BETTER
IDEA COULD BE GAINED AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT COULD
FORM. SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND IN THE CENTER OF THE
MONA CHANNEL AS WELL AS NORTH IN THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE
MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT NOTHING SIMILAR TO THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST
BAND OF SHOWERS DEPICTED BY THE NAM OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE
DISCARDED THE NAM FOR POOR INITIALIZATION. THE GFS SHOWS BETTER
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE AREA BUT ALSO HAD TOO MUCH MOISTURE OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 850 MB
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AND...AS SOON AS CLOUDS CLEAR...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BUSTING THROUGH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN THE
SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA AS THEY HAVE MANY DAYS IN MAYAGUEZ AND IN
PONCE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLY WARMER WEATHER IN SAN JUAN TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THE DRY PERIOD BEGINNING IN EARNEST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN MOISTURE SLOWLY CREEPS BACK. GOOD
MOISTURE MAY RETURN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JUNE BUT THE WETTEST
WEATHER IS NOW LIKELY BEHIND US FOR MANY DAYS TO COME.
NEVERTHELESS...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND SOME CONVECTION IS ALMOST
GUARANTEED IN WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE BEST NEWS YET IS THAT SUNNIER WEATHER
SHOULD BE SEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA. SAHARAN DUST IS QUITE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MAY
AFFECT THE AREA IN A FEW DAYS...BUT BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES EXPECT
IT TO BE BETTER DISPERSED WITH THE MOST DENSE AREA SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ FROM
31/18-31/23 IN SHRA OR TSRA. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. WATCH FOR FREQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. LLVL WIND
FLOW BECAME SE AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A 5 TO 6 FOOT NORTHERLY SWELL HAS ARRIVED IN THE AREA
AND BOOSTED SOME COMBINED SEAS TO 5 AND 6 FEET. THESE HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

[caribepr]

So...is the upshot of all of that that this humidity of 8 zillion percent is not going to be broken? It just started raining here, the bay is a white out...a huge relief of about 1 degree that won't last long enough...argh

[cycloneye]

131 dead in Central America

My prayers go to the victims familys.

[msbee]

Good to be back...I'm going to be spending the summer working in Maine, so I'll be depending even more (if that is possible) on S2K and you in particular, Luis, since I won't be able to have Culebra sand in my shoes! Let's hope it will just be good visuals out at sea <knockin' on wood>

Hi MJ
good to see you here. where are you going to be in Maine?

[caribepr]

MsBee, Boothbay Harbor, on the water! A very c o l d water..

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 PM AST MON MAY 31 2010

PRC021-047-051-091-135-137-143-145-010100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0163.100531T2157Z-100601T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COROZAL PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-MANATI PR-
VEGA BAJA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
557 PM AST MON MAY 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COROZAL...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...MANATI...
VEGA BAJA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 900 PM AST

* AT 555 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
ONE INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR AND CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND
URBAN AREAS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND
UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD
WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING
WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN
ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[caribepr]

Be safe, stay home! The rain has stopped here, only lasted 15 minutes or so. The radar is down (again) so I can't tell what's coming or where it is. Meteo doesn't work that well for here, I've tried.

[cycloneye]

PRC047-051-135-137-143-145-010145-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-100601T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
TOA BAJA PR-
744 PM AST MON MAY 31 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM AST FOR TOA
BAJA...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...VEGA ALTA...TOA ALTA AND COROZAL
MUNICIPALITIES...

...INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER DORADO AND
TOA BAJA...
AT 739 PM AST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SMALL STREAM OR CREEK FLOWING
OVER THE DIEGO EXPRESSWAY AT KILOMETER 27.7 IN THE MAGUAYO SECTOR IN
DORADO. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IN DORADO
AND TOA BAJA DUE TO SWOLLEN CREEKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

[cycloneye]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC021-047-051-105-135-137-143-145-010045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
756 PM AST MON MAY 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 845 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COROZAL...NARANJITO...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...
VEGA BAJA AND TOA BAJA

AT 750 PM AST...PUBLIC AND EMERGENCY MANAGER OFFICIALS REPORTED
INTENSE LIGHTNING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED AT 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF RIO
LAJAS...OR ABOUT 2 MILES EAST OF VEGA ALTA...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.
IN ADDITION...RAIN GAGES AT TOA ALTA NEAR HIGHWAY 2 INDICATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2.18 INCHES...ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

[caribepr]

Sounding scary Meteo shows a huge blob over you all...unplug everything!