ATL: IRMA - Models

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ridge is weakening at H96

It looks noticeably stronger this run actually and the trough is pulling out more quickly

I'm not comparing run to run right now, just this run.

The ridge rebuilds while Irma is in close proximity to Hispaniola. There is a weakening at TAU 108 but the opening is no longer here. Off to S Fl or Cuba

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Little lessons in fluid dynamics...GFS just shut the OTS door. This looks like FL landfall...

Looks to have missed the trough. A little nudge from the backside of the high, and this goes into the Gulf, and could miss Fla altogether.

[Steve]

Notice the High in NW Canada as Levi referred to in his video.

It's been my #1 feature to watch. It's the most important deterministic feature that will be involved with Irma if it gets inland and will be the mechanism to turn it left IF it hits the SE Coast.

[tgenius]

Little lessons in fluid dynamics...GFS just shut the OTS door. This looks like FL landfall...

or Cubabound

or straight through the Florida Straits, Key West would be destroyed.

And south dade where I live would get ne quad. :/

[wxmann_91]

Hr 126 -- no way it stays off of Cuba now

[Aric Dunn]

Cuba landfall ? lol no mid to upper low over mississippi by the way..

[TheStormExpert]

I'm getting Ike vibes just looking at this run.

[GeneratorPower]

126 grows in size and deepens. Yikes.

[Langinbang187]

Going to Cuba.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[shaneomac]

Looks exactly like the euro no ?

[Alyono]

landfall in Cuba at 132 hours...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like a landfall may occur over Florida amid turning to the NW or NNW

[PTrackerLA]

Wow, this is not a good trend for Florida and looks like Cuba is in the picture now. These west ticks sure have been persistent the past 2 days in model runs...

[weathaguyry]

Deeper into Cuba @138

[Blinhart]

Looks like a landfall may occur over Florida amid turning to the NW or NNW

Where do you see this?

[La Sirena]

DR messing with Irma inflow at hr 90 bigtime...

Yet pressure dropping to 912. I disagree with the add 50 rule. Maybe 15, but not 50mb

What is the add 50 rule?

Since implementation of the new GFS system, I believe Ryan Maue said that you should add +50 to all anticipated readings by GFS.

[eastcoastFL]

It's really amazing how much models can shift over a few days. To think the GFS had this way east of FL a few days ago and now it possibly misses the state to the SW is amazing. Not really amazing but shows how much of a mystery the weather still is.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[bamajammer4eva]

Landfall in Cuba at 132. Should weaken majorly by Cuba mts!