ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

NW quad? Isn't the NE Quad typically the most powerful quad of a storm? Anyone know how far the center is supposed to pass east of WPB? And how far the ts force winds are supposed to extend as it approaches the bahamas to our west?

Thanks in advance!

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 240041
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 29 20110824
003130 2018N 07258W 7518 02485 0014 +131 +114 338036 037 029 000 00
003200 2018N 07256W 7517 02486 0015 +128 +114 339038 039 030 001 00
003230 2018N 07254W 7518 02483 0014 +127 +116 336040 040 031 001 00
003300 2018N 07252W 7519 02480 0012 +128 +114 331041 041 030 000 00
003330 2018N 07249W 7519 02479 0008 +130 +116 325039 039 030 000 00
003400 2018N 07247W 7518 02480 0008 +130 +122 321037 038 031 000 00
003430 2018N 07245W 7517 02480 0006 +130 +123 319037 038 031 001 00
003500 2018N 07242W 7520 02477 0003 +131 +123 314037 038 031 001 00
003530 2018N 07240W 7516 02478 0001 +132 +124 311038 038 032 000 00
003600 2018N 07238W 7518 02475 9997 +135 +123 306038 038 032 001 00
003630 2018N 07235W 7517 02475 9994 +138 +111 308040 041 033 001 00
003700 2018N 07233W 7519 02471 9991 +140 +110 304041 041 032 003 00
003730 2018N 07230W 7518 02470 9986 +142 +107 300041 042 036 000 00
003800 2018N 07228W 7516 02469 9983 +142 +110 297045 047 035 000 00
003830 2019N 07225W 7522 02458 9982 +139 +115 291045 047 034 001 00
003900 2020N 07224W 7517 02461 9983 +133 +122 287042 043 032 002 00
003930 2021N 07221W 7518 02456 9972 +139 +120 286044 045 037 000 00
004000 2021N 07219W 7518 02456 9970 +141 +115 286044 045 039 001 00
004030 2022N 07216W 7518 02454 9970 +139 +116 281045 046 039 001 00
004100 2021N 07214W 7518 02454 9970 +138 +118 280045 046 040 000 00

[AdamFirst]

NW quad? Isn't the NE Quad typically the most powerful quad of a storm? Anyone know how far the center is supposed to pass east of WPB? And how far the ts force winds are supposed to extend as it approaches the bahamas to our west?

Thanks in advance!

I believe the core of the storm will be AT LEAST 150 miles off the shore of West Palm Beach. I think it's actually closer to 200.

[cpdaman]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IPROVIDE8

pressure startin to fall fast

67 gusts in providencias bahamas

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240110
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 22 20110824
010000 2017N 07114W 6966 03099 9999 +084 //// 202040 040 026 003 01
010030 2018N 07115W 6967 03100 9998 +084 //// 206040 040 026 006 01
010100 2020N 07117W 6968 03094 //// +068 //// 204042 042 031 011 01
010130 2021N 07118W 6966 03094 //// +066 //// 201042 043 035 011 01
010200 2023N 07120W 6967 03096 9990 +080 //// 213034 038 036 005 01
010230 2024N 07121W 6965 03094 9992 +080 //// 222033 036 035 007 01
010300 2025N 07122W 6965 03094 9985 +081 //// 220039 042 037 006 01
010330 2026N 07124W 6965 03091 9977 +091 +090 221042 043 036 005 00
010400 2028N 07125W 6967 03087 9972 +094 +087 215043 043 037 004 00
010430 2029N 07126W 6967 03083 9969 +095 +077 219043 043 036 005 00
010500 2030N 07128W 6967 03078 9968 +094 +077 219045 047 039 004 00
010530 2031N 07129W 6966 03080 9970 +090 +079 220048 049 038 005 00
010600 2033N 07130W 6967 03071 9966 +089 +080 221048 048 039 006 00
010630 2034N 07132W 6965 03076 9967 +085 +085 224048 050 041 006 00
010700 2035N 07133W 6969 03065 9970 +079 //// 222050 051 043 009 01
010730 2037N 07134W 6966 03064 9975 +071 //// 220052 053 043 009 01
010800 2038N 07136W 6968 03057 9965 +076 //// 223055 056 043 009 01
010830 2039N 07137W 6967 03056 9951 +080 //// 221055 056 042 007 01
010900 2040N 07138W 6963 03055 9951 +079 //// 223054 055 044 008 01
010930 2042N 07140W 6969 03042 //// +077 //// 227055 057 044 010 01
$$
;

[eastcoastFL]

Right now TS winds are out 205 miles from the center, so depending on how far west she comes we may get into that wind field. Also has she strengthens and continues to get larger that windfield will probably expand. I remember some larger storms with TS force winds outward of 275+ miles from the center.

Local forecast here is for 25-30 mph winds wed night with gusts up to 40

[wxman57]

00Z models continue to shift east - now just clipping the Outer Banks and then slamming into Long Island.

[jpigott]

What's the windfield look like atm to the west of the center of Irene? How far out to TS winds extend?

[Rainband]

Right now TS winds are out 205 miles from the center, so depending on how far west she comes we may get into that wind field. Also has she strengthens and continues to get larger that windfield will probably expand. I remember some larger storms with TS force winds outward of 275+ miles from the center.

Local forecast here is for 25-30 mph winds wed night with gusts up to 40

ne of the center I believe

[Dave]

Missing hdobs #30 - Not in archive either

000
URNT15 KWBC 240101
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 31 20110824
005130 2028N 07157W 7519 02429 9945 +140 +109 248051 052 045 002 00
005200 2030N 07157W 7519 02424 9934 +140 +130 250051 053 046 009 00
005230 2032N 07157W 7520 02416 9928 +137 //// 246048 051 047 012 01
005300 2034N 07157W 7517 02413 9920 +139 +139 246053 056 049 016 00
005330 2036N 07157W 7507 02416 9915 +134 //// 241059 061 046 013 01
005400 2039N 07157W 7507 02406 9904 +135 //// 242057 059 047 007 01
005430 2041N 07157W 7500 02407 9893 +136 //// 244060 063 049 005 01
005500 2043N 07157W 7531 02358 9876 +140 //// 243063 063 051 008 01
005530 2045N 07157W 7522 02353 9853 +145 //// 240068 069 056 005 01
005600 2048N 07157W 7514 02347 9827 +156 +141 235075 078 060 005 00
005630 2050N 07157W 7519 02323 9800 +167 +131 234081 083 061 003 00
005700 2052N 07157W 7518 02306 9771 +178 +123 231083 086 058 002 00
005730 2055N 07157W 7510 02291 9743 +179 +151 226063 069 051 002 00
005800 2057N 07157W 7489 02303 9732 +171 +161 218048 049 042 002 00
005830 2059N 07158W 7497 02280 9710 +183 +147 210042 046 /// /// 03
005900 2101N 07159W 7502 02266 9697 +186 +147 196030 034 029 000 03
005930 2101N 07201W 7556 02196 9687 +193 +144 196020 025 025 000 00
010000 2102N 07203W 7523 02230 9678 +198 +136 184009 012 024 000 00
010030 2102N 07206W 7516 02239 9677 +199 +137 350010 019 020 000 00
010100 2102N 07208W 7515 02238 9673 +204 +132 000024 026 /// /// 03

[jpigott]

Right now TS winds are out 205 miles from the center, so depending on how far west she comes we may get into that wind field. Also has she strengthens and continues to get larger that windfield will probably expand. I remember some larger storms with TS force winds outward of 275+ miles from the center.

Local forecast here is for 25-30 mph winds wed night with gusts up to 40

ne of the center I believe

Funny, I just asked the same thing in the recon discussion thread. What's the TS windfield look like to the west of the center?

[cpdaman]

wouldnt that be something if the islands of hispanola and the mountains pulled some "voodoo" and she nudged w/ wsw for several hours tonite along N. coast of hispanola.

i mean steering flow seems weak....now ...pressures are building in to her north (for now) and the coast of hispanola has done stranger things in the past....no? like unmodeled things

[psyclone]

it looks like the center is on a track to just miss great inagua to the northeast but they should take a pretty good beating. if i recall correctly, that island was ravaged by ike at category 4 intensity.

[ozonepete]

NW quad? Isn't the NE Quad typically the most powerful quad of a storm? Anyone know how far the center is supposed to pass east of WPB? And how far the ts force winds are supposed to extend as it approaches the bahamas to our west?

Thanks in advance!

No. It depends on the direction of the storm. The RIGHT FRONT quadrant along the direction of the storm (along the track) is the strongest quadrant. Because of Irene's motion, it is currently the NW quadrant. If it were moving due north it would be the NE quadrant.

[cpdaman]

00Z models continue to shift east - now just clipping the Outer Banks and then slamming into Long Island.

what 0z models are out?

[ozonepete]

wouldnt that be something if the islands of hispanola and the mountains pulled some "voodoo" and she nudged w/ wsw for several hours tonite along N. coast of hispanola.

i mean steering flow seems weak....now ...pressures are building in to her north (for now) and the coast of hispanola has done stranger things in the past....no? like unmodeled things

It would be except it's pretty much past Hispaniola now.

[HeeBGBz]

It sure seems strange that all the models are in agreement. To me it seems like Irene wants to go to Cuba. When is the major shift north going to take place?

[mf_dolphin]

Funny, I just asked the same thing in the recon discussion thread. What's the TS windfield look like to the west of the center?

34 KT.......180NE 120SE 90SW 130NW

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240120
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 23 20110824
011000 2043N 07141W 6965 03043 9931 +084 //// 226060 064 048 009 01
011030 2044N 07142W 6969 03030 9910 +089 //// 220063 066 049 006 01
011100 2045N 07143W 6971 03026 //// +083 //// 213066 067 048 007 01
011130 2047N 07145W 6974 03013 9901 +085 //// 213066 067 050 004 01
011200 2048N 07146W 6964 03013 9881 +097 //// 217068 069 049 004 01
011230 2049N 07148W 6964 03003 9877 +092 //// 216071 072 053 002 01
011300 2050N 07149W 6971 02983 9856 +098 +091 218076 078 055 001 00
011330 2052N 07150W 6977 02963 9840 +099 +092 219081 085 059 008 00
011400 2053N 07151W 6961 02968 9817 +099 +097 214082 086 060 007 01
011430 2054N 07153W 6973 02946 9787 +120 +100 222080 083 061 004 00
011500 2056N 07154W 6970 02930 9762 +125 +122 221076 078 059 002 00
011530 2057N 07155W 6959 02927 9736 +134 +119 219063 067 055 001 03
011600 2058N 07157W 6968 02904 9719 +137 +118 211054 057 052 002 00
011630 2059N 07158W 6967 02893 9693 +150 +111 209045 048 038 002 03
011700 2100N 07200W 6973 02876 9680 +153 +107 208037 040 029 002 00
011730 2101N 07202W 6963 02880 9668 +158 +096 207024 028 019 002 00
011800 2102N 07203W 6967 02873 9660 +164 +094 209014 018 002 002 03
011830 2103N 07205W 6967 02871 9659 +159 +099 203008 010 002 000 00
011900 2103N 07207W 6968 02862 9665 +147 +117 148004 005 002 002 00
011930 2104N 07209W 6970 02859 9670 +141 +122 044005 008 002 001 00
$$
;

86 kt FL, 61 kt SFMR in SE quad. Pressure 966mb.

[eastcoastFL]

wouldnt that be something if the islands of hispanola and the mountains pulled some "voodoo" and she nudged w/ wsw for several hours tonite along N. coast of hispanola.

i mean steering flow seems weak....now ...pressures are building in to her north (for now) and the coast of hispanola has done stranger things in the past....no? like unmodeled things

It wouldnt be a total shock especially with the high building back in and the slow development or maybe a over forecasted trough. stranger things have happened like jeanne doing a 360 when she was headed out to sea. The nhc missed that one by a lot!