ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

So, why is some shear hitting TD 9 when it's almost under the anti-cyclone?

[Aric Dunn]

18z gfs is slower this run by about 12 hours same general landfall though.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 292202
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 31 20160829
215230 2339N 08645W 6957 03203 0053 +124 +047 032014 015 011 000 00
215300 2339N 08643W 6957 03202 0056 +122 +047 031016 016 010 000 00
215330 2339N 08640W 6958 03199 0055 +121 +050 031015 015 011 000 00
215400 2340N 08638W 6958 03200 0054 +122 +048 033015 015 013 000 00
215430 2340N 08636W 6957 03202 0056 +121 +057 033014 014 016 000 00
215500 2340N 08634W 6957 03202 0056 +119 +069 029015 016 018 000 00
215530 2341N 08632W 6957 03204 0057 +120 +073 030016 016 014 000 00
215600 2341N 08629W 6958 03202 0056 +120 +076 030016 016 012 000 00
215630 2341N 08627W 6958 03201 0057 +118 +079 033015 015 011 000 00
215700 2342N 08625W 6957 03202 0057 +118 +078 038014 015 010 000 00
215730 2342N 08623W 6957 03201 0051 +119 +080 036014 014 011 001 00
215800 2342N 08620W 6959 03195 0048 +120 +081 031015 017 011 000 00
215830 2343N 08618W 6957 03197 0048 +120 +081 028016 016 013 000 00
215900 2343N 08616W 6958 03194 0044 +122 +080 025015 015 013 000 00
215930 2343N 08614W 6958 03194 0042 +123 +077 021014 014 015 000 00
220000 2343N 08612W 6957 03196 0045 +123 +065 023016 017 013 000 00
220030 2344N 08609W 6957 03195 0042 +126 +070 021016 016 011 000 00
220100 2344N 08607W 6957 03195 0043 +125 +062 023017 017 012 000 00
220130 2344N 08605W 6957 03195 0043 +124 +067 025016 017 011 000 00
220200 2345N 08603W 6958 03194 0043 +123 +073 034014 014 013 000 00

[Blinhart]

just one of them. and the only one with convection.. have to see what happens.

Since you are a Pro-Met I will ask if this is the main vort that takes over will this cause a major change in the Models?

I am not a pro met. but thanks
to answer your question: its quite possible how much is unknown. have to wait and see how this evolves.

Oh I thought you were, you seem right on point with the other Pro-Mets in here.

[Evil Jeremy]

It looks like recon will make one more pass. They'll capture the newly forming storms. Might get those TS winds.

Also, if that is the main circulation that looks like it's headed NW, didn't the HWRF show that yesterday?

[Aric Dunn]

So, why is some shear hitting TD 9 when it's almost under the anti-cyclone?

could be some midlevel shear not analyzed. most of it is satellite analyzed shear we need balloons or recon sometimes to upper air sampling to know exactly. when recon leaves and begins to climb they will gather a little about whats happening that will get put into the models later.

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like recon will make one more pass. They'll capture the newly forming storms. Might get those TS winds.

we never did get a VDM on that last pass. maybe they are waiting to see if its just a vort or not ?

[StormTracker]

LOL - someone needs to proofread this stuff before it goes out.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 292052
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY...

That just goes to show, they're as dizzy as we are tracking this thing! LOL!

[CypressMike]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Rough day for NOAA. Not only did they say TD9/Gaston is expected to become a tropical storm tomorrow, but if you click the box to turn on the tropical forecast points at the above link you'll see that it is now a Cat2 hurricane!

[HurriGuy]

This is getting ridiculous. I am ready for this disturbance to end or at least give us more clarity. Lol

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 292212
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 32 20160829
220230 2345N 08600W 6957 03195 0044 +123 +069 035014 015 015 000 00
220300 2345N 08558W 6957 03193 0042 +123 +072 032015 016 014 000 00
220330 2346N 08556W 6958 03192 0043 +122 +075 028015 016 015 000 00
220400 2346N 08554W 6958 03191 0041 +122 +072 028015 016 013 000 00
220430 2346N 08551W 6958 03191 0040 +123 +069 023014 014 013 000 00
220500 2347N 08549W 6957 03191 0037 +126 +059 026015 015 013 000 00
220530 2347N 08547W 6959 03190 0040 +124 +061 021015 015 013 000 00
220600 2347N 08545W 6958 03191 0044 +120 +070 025017 018 013 000 00
220630 2348N 08543W 6958 03192 0043 +121 +070 035019 020 011 000 00
220700 2348N 08540W 6958 03191 0040 +124 +060 039018 018 010 000 00
220730 2348N 08538W 6960 03189 0038 +126 +054 039019 019 011 000 00
220800 2348N 08536W 6958 03188 0036 +123 +072 043019 020 010 000 00
220830 2349N 08534W 6959 03186 0030 +128 +068 052018 019 010 000 00
220900 2349N 08532W 6959 03185 0028 +129 +066 056017 018 011 000 00
220930 2349N 08530W 6959 03185 0025 +131 +070 060017 018 009 000 00
221000 2350N 08528W 6961 03182 0025 +131 +066 062018 018 008 000 00
221030 2350N 08526W 6959 03185 0026 +130 +064 063018 018 008 001 00
221100 2351N 08524W 6958 03186 0029 +128 +066 064017 017 008 000 00
221130 2351N 08521W 6958 03187 0029 +130 +056 072016 017 012 001 00
221200 2351N 08519W 6958 03187 0030 +129 +053 074015 015 008 000 00

[Dean4Storms]

Well the mid level vort has certainly caught up to the low level vort. Don't see nothing rotating but the clouds over TD9.

[NDG]

All I know is that is going to be really wet in FL at least through Thursday, a lot of deep tropical moisture on the eastern side of this system.

[Aric Dunn]

look at the wind barbs.. looks like the southern vort is taking over.. circ is to the south of there present position..

[Nimbus]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Rough day for NOAA. Not only did they say TD9/Gaston is expected to become a tropical storm tomorrow, but if you click the box to turn on the tropical forecast points at the above link you'll see that it is now a Cat2 hurricane!

Maybe they mean"2" you know like surface obs and outflow obs, if they were stacked we would be looking at a Cat 1?

[NDG]

look at the wind barbs.. looks like the southern vort is taking over.. circ is to the south of there present position..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... YCLONE.png

I was about to post the same thing, as if the southern vorticity is now or is trying to take over.

[NDG]

By the way, very tropical and squally weather in Orlando this afternoon.

[tarheelprogrammer]

METS is there really another center near the Yucatan?

[hohnywx]

look at the wind barbs.. looks like the southern vort is taking over.. circ is to the south of there present position..

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... YCLONE.png

I was about to post the same thing, as if the southern vorticity is now or is trying to take over.

If that southern vort was to take over, what does that spell out in terms of track?

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 292222
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 33 20160829
221230 2352N 08517W 6958 03187 0031 +129 +054 067014 014 009 000 00
221300 2352N 08515W 6958 03187 0033 +127 +057 064014 014 008 000 00
221330 2352N 08513W 6958 03188 0035 +125 +059 058014 014 010 001 00
221400 2353N 08511W 6958 03188 0037 +123 +064 057012 012 010 001 00
221430 2353N 08508W 6958 03186 0039 +120 +066 054010 011 007 001 00
221500 2353N 08506W 6957 03187 0036 +123 +054 038013 013 007 000 00
221530 2354N 08504W 6957 03186 0037 +121 +059 031013 013 008 001 00
221600 2354N 08502W 6957 03185 0031 +126 +062 034013 013 007 000 00
221630 2354N 08459W 6958 03184 0028 +128 +061 033013 013 008 000 00
221700 2354N 08457W 6959 03183 0030 +126 +065 040012 012 007 000 00
221730 2354N 08455W 6957 03185 0030 +124 +078 062012 012 009 001 00
221800 2354N 08453W 6958 03183 0032 +121 +084 073010 010 008 000 00
221830 2354N 08450W 6957 03183 0033 +120 +085 074009 009 010 001 00
221900 2354N 08448W 6957 03183 0033 +119 +085 087009 009 008 001 00
221930 2354N 08446W 6958 03183 0038 +116 +084 095009 009 005 001 00
222000 2354N 08444W 6959 03182 0036 +118 +085 107009 010 011 001 00
222030 2354N 08441W 6958 03183 0037 +118 +080 104009 010 014 001 00
222100 2354N 08439W 6959 03183 0031 +124 +074 112008 008 007 001 00
222130 2354N 08437W 6957 03186 0022 +132 +062 111008 009 008 000 00
222200 2354N 08434W 6959 03185 0036 +121 +068 138007 007 008 000 00