ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

I still think central LA, but really the message is still the same even now, everywhere from the panhandle to Texas still needs to watch Gustav so closely...

Looks like the center is now overland, wonder how Manchioneal is doing, should be in the center, hope the winds weren't too extreme in that eastern eyewall.

[hsvwx]

Been busy and taking the first look at the GFS, interesting to see how it stalls Gustav before landfall in Louisiana and bends him soutwest towards the Texas coast. The problem is that the ridge/trough pattern across the United States is rather progressive, which should allow Gustav to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast rather than Texas. However if the high is strong enough, Texas certainly could have a problem, especially with the warm waters off its coast.

[Wx_Warrior]

No good feelings here today guys....I am prepared but lots say "it's not coming here, the weather channel said Louisiana..."

I'm afraid the GFS will be right....

[Buck]

Question: Can 'small' structure storms get appreciably larger when they intensify a great deal or do they tend to be the same general size regardless of strength?

Winds usually expand after an eyewall replacement cycle.

Yes, storms can change sizes often.

Some memorable larger storms weren't necessarily that big when we first encountered them.

[cpdaman]

are major storms more likely to weaken making landfall in the N. gulf coast due to "cooler" water and dryer air from land to the north than say in SE texas, i thought they may be , but was looking for a pro's take

[N2Storms]

[quote="KWT"]I still think central LA, but really the message is still the same even now, everywhere from the panhandle to Texas still needs to watch Gustav so closely...

Looks like the center is now overland, wonder how Manchioneal is doing, should be in the center, hope the winds weren't too extreme in that eastern eyewall.[/quote]



I would agree with that but right now it definitely appears as though the folks of Coastal Louisiana need to be in the highest state of Alert closely followed by those on the mid to upper Tx Coast...I really believe that w / each passing hour the threat to points east of Mobile are is significantly lessening...the model trends are west and given what we currently know about the atmosphreic synoptics there appears to be nothing that would cause too much of a drastic shift in the forecast...

[Sabanic]

I still think central LA, but really the message is still the same even now, everywhere from the panhandle to Texas still needs to watch Gustav so closely...

Looks like the center is now overland, wonder how Manchioneal is doing, should be in the center, hope the winds weren't too extreme in that eastern eyewall.

I would agree with that but right now it definitely appears as though the folks of Coastal Louisiana need to be in the highest state of Alert closely followed by those on the mid to upper Tx Coast...I really believe that w / each passing hour the threat to points east of Mobile are is significantly lessening...the model trends are west and given what we currently know about the atmosphreic synoptics there appears to be nothing that would cause too much of a drastic shift in the forecast...

I don't know if that's 100% true this early in the game. Anything on the eastern side of LA due to it's protrusion in the water is bad news for here. See Katrina

[Dean4Storms]

I have questions over the GFS runs and its lack of deepening Gustav. There is no way this model could be on the money with it failing to recognize the depth of this storm. A stronger storm turning against a weakening ridge usually does turn deeper and sharper. Yes I know all the atmospheric conditions remain but this is a WEAKENING RIDGE not a situation where a major front is the player or something.

Take the GFDL for instance, it is recognizing a deeper storm as we all expect and it continues to turn it into the ridge more sharper than the GFS. I'm skeptical of the GFS right now till it gets at least the storm strength closer than a weak TS!

[pablolopez26]

We should know more about Gustavs track on Sunday right all?

Right now, its just anybodies guess.

[Texashawk]

Question: Can 'small' structure storms get appreciably larger when they intensify a great deal or do they tend to be the same general size regardless of strength?

Winds usually expand after an eyewall replacement cycle.

Yes, storms can change sizes often.

Some memorable larger storms weren't necessarily that big when we first encountered them.

ah yes, that one rings a bell

I thought storms tended to get larger the longer they could develop, but I swear many of them seemed to stay roughly the same size - meaning, the wind field may have expanded but the actual size of the convection didn't seem to change that much

[x-y-no]

I have questions over the GFS runs and its lack of deepening Gustav. There is no way this model could be on the money with it failing to recognize the depth of this storm. A stronger storm turning against a weakening ridge usually does turn deeper and sharper. Yes I know all the atmospheric conditions remain but this is a WEAKENING RIDGE not a situation where a major front is the player or something.

None of the globals have the resolution to see the internal dynamics of a cyclone. Thus, especially with smaller storms, they're always going to depict them as weak, whether they really will be or not.

That's why we have nested grid models like GFDL and HWRF.

[Dean4Storms]

I have questions over the GFS runs and its lack of deepening Gustav. There is no way this model could be on the money with it failing to recognize the depth of this storm. A stronger storm turning against a weakening ridge usually does turn deeper and sharper. Yes I know all the atmospheric conditions remain but this is a WEAKENING RIDGE not a situation where a major front is the player or something.

None of the globals have the resolution to see the internal dynamics of a cyclone. Thus, especially with smaller storms, they're always going to depict them as weak, whether they really will be or not.

That's why we have nested grid models like GFDL and HWRF.

Thats just it, Gus is small right now, but according to the GFS then it stays that way, I'm not buying it.

Also I'll add. Because the GFS cannot see down to this small of a resolution in this situation then it cannot be 100% accurate!

[PTrackerLA]

Went to Lowe's this morning to stock up, it was pretty crowded with people buying up plywood, water, generators, etc. EVERYONE is talking about the storm everywhere you go around here, which is good since people are taking it very seriously. I will be staying put no matter what as I'm not in a flood zone and far enough inland to be safe from surge and have a brick house. We already have relatives from New Iberia and Morgan City coming over Sunday unless things change drastically so here we go I guess... .

[x-y-no]

2pm advisory is late?

[Brent]

2pm advisory is late?

Waiting for recon(I've seen it come out right at 2 before).

It's out, still a TS.

[RL3AO]

71kt FL SE side, 69kt FL NW side. Center about 3 miles off the coast.

[x-y-no]

Thats just it, Gus is small right now, but according to the GFS then it stays that way, I'm not buying it.

Well I agree it won't. But no global is going to pick up on the dynamics that change that. The GFDL and HWRF will be out momentarily, they're the better guide.

[cycloneye]

2 PM Advisory came out without the recon data.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Sabanic"][quote="N2Storms"][quote="KWT"]I still think central LA, but really the message is still the same even now, everywhere from the panhandle to Texas still needs to watch Gustav so closely...

Looks like the center is now overland, wonder how Manchioneal is doing, should be in the center, hope the winds weren't too extreme in that eastern eyewall.[/quote]



I would agree with that but right now it definitely appears as though the folks of Coastal Louisiana need to be in the highest state of Alert closely followed by those on the mid to upper Tx Coast...[b]I really believe that w / each passing hour the threat to points east of Mobile are is significantly lessening...[/b]the model trends are west and given what we currently know about the atmosphreic synoptics there appears to be nothing that would cause too much of a drastic shift in the forecast...[/quote]

I don't know if that's 100% true this early in the game. Anything on the eastern side of LA due to it's protrusion in the water is bad news for here. See Katrina[/quote]


Well, maybe I should've said points east of Pensacola then...I realize Mobile was directly impacted by Katrina but over here in the Central Panhandle we didn't experience too much in the way of wind or rain whatsoever...I'll revise my statement to reflect points East of Pensacola...

[KWT]

/would think given 71kts at flight level in the SE eyewall, there'd be slightly higher winds in the NE quadrant but we have to wait and see.

Pressure around 982mbs now, though I suspect it was a touch lower about an hour ago before the convection exploded over the 'eye' of the system.