ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheDreamTraveler]

The NHC has ardjusted the longrange track back a bit east, probably due to the recent eastward bend in the computer model runs, interesting.

This is why I was so annoyed the other day with people whining why NHC wouldn't shift the center of the path directly over Florida "b-but the euro keeps showing landfall on florida nhc is BIAS against florida" these guys are good at what they do and they stuck to their guns and it paid off. Just bugs me when people model hug the euro lol there was always a decent chance this stayed offshore just enough.

[hohnywx]

The NHC has ardjusted the longrange track back a bit east, probably due to the recent eastward bend in the computer model runs, interesting.

I don’t think that is correct. Per the 5 PM discussion:

The new NHC forecast track during the
first 24 hours lies a little east of the previous one, but is
essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track
thereafter, and lies close to the various consensus models, which
are lightly packed around the previous NHC foreast.

[jdjaguar]

Why does that upset you?

Had there been an emergency, they would have been in the way of rescue operations. Also the capsule uses toxic hypergolic fuel for its thrusters, a leak could have been deadly to the sight seeers. The actually was some venting of toxic fumes that delayed opening the hatch when the capsule was on board the recovery vessel.

It was a stupid and reckless thing for them to do.

Agree

[Kazmit]

The NHC has ardjusted the longrange track back a bit east, probably due to the recent eastward bend in the computer model runs, interesting.

This is why I was so annoyed the other day with people whining why NHC wouldn't shift the center of the path directly over Florida "b-but the euro keeps showing landfall on florida nhc is BIAS against florida" these guys are good at what they do and they stuck to their guns and it paid off. Just bugs me when people model hug the euro lol there was always a decent chance this stayed offshore just enough.

Model hugging in general is a bad idea, especially with how unreliable they have been this year.

[Ken711]

The NHC has ardjusted the longrange track back a bit east, probably due to the recent eastward bend in the computer model runs, interesting.

Looks like a potential landfall around North Myrtle Beach SC.

[johngaltfla]

The NHC has ardjusted the longrange track back a bit east, probably due to the recent eastward bend in the computer model runs, interesting.

This is why I was so annoyed the other day with people whining why NHC wouldn't shift the center of the path directly over Florida "b-but the euro keeps showing landfall on florida nhc is BIAS against florida" these guys are good at what they do and they stuck to their guns and it paid off. Just bugs me when people model hug the euro lol there was always a decent chance this stayed offshore just enough.

Model hugging in general is a bad idea, especially with how unreliable they have been this year.

Do what? The models have been awesome. Florida has been pancaked by 20 Cat 5's so far this season.

[Beachside]

I am expecting another flare up this evening. Still a chance the Space Coast could get some of the stronger winds.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Sitting here 2 blocks from the beach in mid-Brevard county, I hope you're wrong. No offense!
If it's going to dish out more to the Space Coast, it is running out of time to do it. Position at the 5:00 update was almost directly off Sebastian Inlet. Wind here has swung around to more north than east, so I can tell it's just about right offshore here.

[gfsperpendicular]

Look at that outflow!

[BUD]

The NHC has ardjusted the longrange track back a bit east, probably due to the recent eastward bend in the computer model runs, interesting.

Looks like a potential landfall around North Myrtle Beach SC.

Coming right over my house!!!! Oh well still have to work!! Nothing closing up for this one.

[Evenstar]

I hate to be area-centric when folks to the south have more pressing concerns, but I can't tell, from anything I've seen thus far, how concerned I should be in VA's Tidewater area.

How susceptible is your exact area to coastal flooding? I ask because the tidal cycle will be running high Monday into Tuesday as is.

Extremely. We flood in summer thunderstorms and have minor tidal flooding often.

I suspect we handle our liquor better than we handle our water around here. The infrastructure is appalling IMO.

[AdamFirst]

Unfortunately this storm will contribute to more complacency for people all across the Florida coast. It's not the forecasters fault; the impacts of this storm would have likely been much different if the storm were fully symmetrical on both sides and wasn't getting shaved in half due to high wind shear. The center of the system has skirted the coast from Palm Beach since this morning, but you would never tell that there's a 70 MPH tropical storm just offshore due to these unique circumstances.

If this were late August or September this likely would have been a much bigger problem. Unfortunately, it's only August 2nd, so we down here in the Sunshine State have another three full months to worry about darts coming off the ocean.

Best of luck to everyone in the path - the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic and New England.

[CronkPSU]

of course I don't believe Florida has a force field or repellent but it is crazy how many times today that dark and white tops on this IR loops have made it to the edge of the coast and then just got blown back

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[OuterBanker]

The 5pm statement from Stacey Stewart certainly is interesting. The way I interpret it is that not only could Isaias get back to hurricane strength it will stay strong longer than average because of the baroclinc interaction with the front.

Stacey Stewart should never retire. this country really needs him.

[aspen]

The current forecast for Tuesday night in SW Connecticut calls for 35-50 mph sustained winds and 1-2 inches of rain. If this verifies, Isaias will be significantly more impactful than Fay, but likely not as bad as Sandy (I believe winds exceeded 60-65 mph that night).

[Steve]

Appears that models didn’t process Saharan dry air ingestion very well, but just more room for improvement.Here in Cape Canaveral, celebrating the successful Space X Dragon return with healthy astronauts . And waiting on a Dominos Pizza delivery Good luck, GA/Carolinas, hope Isa doesn’t rebuild. See y’all on the next one. Early days.

...

Domino's pizza? Yes, and it was good, so there.

Dry air, not so much.

lol Nobody could pay me to eat Domino's Papa John's or Pizza Hut. I don't live in a city known for its pizza, but I can name 25 places here I'd eat if I wanted some pizza. If it comes down to chain, I'd probably still eat Blaze, but I'm not a big fan of that either. It's just a little better. But of course to each their own.

If anyone sees bands or cells rotating into the Low Country of South Carolina on the way up tomorrow, don't forget about your furry friends at Critter Vision. The deer, raccoons and possum may or may not come out to eat tomorrow, but it's a cool camera to watch when it's raining.

Critter Vision - Close in to the feed boxes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLLdLn9Lpok

Critter Vision - Backyard Camera which is a View of the Yard from higher up
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97KryZmuv5c

[ozonepete]

Look at that outflow!
https://i.imgur.com/AkzrQhO.png

Yeah this reminds me of when it ramped up the other day. Very good outflow and no more dry air is 2 out of 3. If shear continues to drop it could make 80 mph or better easily.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The 5pm statement from Stacey Stewart certainly is interesting. The way I interpret it is that not only could Isaias get back to hurricane strength it will stay strong longer than average because of the baroclinc interaction with the front.

Stacey Stewart should never retire. this country really needs him.

Interesting, looking at the models, I've also been wondering about such a scenario.

[northjaxpro]

Unfortunately this storm will contribute to more complacency for people all across the Florida coast. It's not the forecasters fault; the impacts of this storm would have likely been much different if the storm were fully symmetrical on both sides and wasn't getting shaved in half due to high wind shear. The center of the system has skirted the coast from Palm Beach since this morning, but you would never tell that there's a 70 MPH tropical storm just offshore due to these unique circumstances.

If this were late August or September this likely would have been a much bigger problem. Unfortunately, it's only August 2nd, so we down here in the Sunshine State have another three full months to worry about darts coming off the ocean.

Best of luck to everyone in the path - the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic and New England.

The scary thing about this is that we have only gone through just 1/3 of the season with 7 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes thus far, included in there a record 5 named storms in July!

We are just now getting to the real meat and potatoes still to come from now up to the average peak, which is September 10. It's been a wild ride for sure so far. Just imagine if the real true big monster cyclones like Dorian get cranking out there God forbid!!!

[Ken711]

Unfortunately this storm will contribute to more complacency for people all across the Florida coast. It's not the forecasters fault; the impacts of this storm would have likely been much different if the storm were fully symmetrical on both sides and wasn't getting shaved in half due to high wind shear. The center of the system has skirted the coast from Palm Beach since this morning, but you would never tell that there's a 70 MPH tropical storm just offshore due to these unique circumstances.

If this were late August or September this likely would have been a much bigger problem. Unfortunately, it's only August 2nd, so we down here in the Sunshine State have another three full months to worry about darts coming off the ocean.

Best of luck to everyone in the path - the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic and New England.

The scary thing about this is that we have only gone through just 1/3 of the season with 7 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes thus far, included in there a record 5 named storms in July!

We are just now getting to the real meat and potatoes still to come from now up to the average peak, which is September10. It's been a wild ride for sure so far. Just imagine if the real true big monster cyclones like Dorian get cranking out there God forbid!!!

Definitely an active start being only August 2nd.

[LarryWx]

Any educated guesses as to the storm surge at Charleston worst case scenario? Will it will be anywhere near Irma, which was only a TS when it was at its closest to CHS inland in N FL and yet CHS had its highest storm surge since Hugo and even higher than Matthew at ~4.7 feet causing major inundation downtown and elsewhere (see link below)
Thanks in advance.

My gut says it can't be nearly as high as Irma and yet I never thought Irma's surge was going to exceed Matthew, especially with it only a TS and hundreds of miles away at closest approach. So, I'm a bit gunshy.

https://www.weather.gov/chs/TropicalStormIrma-Sep2017