Texas Winter 2024-2025

[bubba hotep]

That's a lot of words. This cold snap looks to be driven by an Alaskan Ridge pattern that isn't as dependent on the PV as some other pattern regimes that can drive big cold snaps.

[Gotwood]

Weather channel app already showing highs in the 30s for that time frame I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that this far out.

[wxman22]

[txtwister78]

Yeah that EPO is tanking next week and that negative is the real deal.

[Stratton23]

Noaas hazardous temperature map outlook covers almost 70% of the US, thats insane!

[Brent]

Yeah everyone up here is already talking about it too and I mean we still are gonna have black ice from yesterday

Again the thing I really took away from yesterday was how marginal the temps were.. it wasnt even remotely cold or windy like most of our snowstorms here

NWS even said it's hard to get a snowstorm with a south wind I guess that's probably a big reason DFW busted but still

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Yeah everyone up here is already talking about it too and I mean we still are gonna have black ice from yesterday

Again the thing I really took away from yesterday was how marginal the temps were.. it wasnt even remotely cold or windy like most of our snowstorms here

NWS even said it's hard to get a snowstorm with a south wind I guess that's probably a big reason DFW busted but still

I'm kinda shocked that snow reached far to the ne with a slp that far south. I mean in mo, il, and in.

[Throckmorton]

That's a lot of words. This cold snap looks to be driven by an Alaskan Ridge pattern that isn't as dependent on the PV as some other pattern regimes that can drive big cold snaps.

The Alaskan ridge pattern is in fact driven by the stratospheric polar vortex.

[bubba hotep]

That's a lot of words. This cold snap looks to be driven by an Alaskan Ridge pattern that isn't as dependent on the PV as some other pattern regimes that can drive big cold snaps.

The Alaskan ridge pattern is in fact driven by the stratospheric polar vortex.

In a sense, everything is top down.

[Iceresistance]

The EPO is going to TANK

 https://x.com/jgodynick/status/1877744523494686795

[HockeyTx82]

The EPO is going to TANK

 https://x.com/jgodynick/status/1877744523494686795

Okay wait the actual control is that far below the average, that's insane.

Do we have any data as to what it was for the coldest outbreaks that we have on record?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The EPO is going to TANK

 https://x.com/jgodynick/status/1877744523494686795

Okay wait the actual control is that far below the average, that's insane.

Do we have any data as to what it was for the coldest outbreaks that we have on record?

I have seen a -6 to 7 in 2013-2014 timeframe.

[Quixotic]

The EPO is going to TANK

 https://x.com/jgodynick/status/1877744523494686795

Okay wait the actual control is that far below the average, that's insane.

Do we have any data as to what it was for the coldest outbreaks that we have on record?

I have seen a -6 to 7 in 2013-2014 timeframe.

Top 10 maybe top 5 winter. 78, 10, 77, 79, 64 only ones I’d put above it. Maybe 85.

[Iceresistance]

Euro has me and Brent below Zero after next weekend


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXDIz.gif

[Brent]

An OKC met on Facebook said could be coldest air since 2021

[Throckmorton]

EPS mean forecast temperatures for Jan. 22nd along with the 90th and 10th percentiles (Jan. 10, 12Z run):

36–19...(54–05)...Amarillo
47–33...(62–22)...Austin Camp Mabry
43–29...(58–19)...Dallas
51–38...(68–25)...Houston
33–20...(50–07)...Oklahoma City
32–19...(49–08)...Tulsa

[Stratton23]

Brent bold statement haha, but wouldnt be surprised, this airmass is coming from eastern siberia, on top of that we already have a healthy snowpack over the central US, i wouldn’t be surprised to see some wicked cold model runs over the next several days

[Ntxw]

Okay wait the actual control is that far below the average, that's insane.

Do we have any data as to what it was for the coldest outbreaks that we have on record?

I have seen a -6 to 7 in 2013-2014 timeframe.

Top 10 maybe top 5 winter. 78, 10, 77, 79, 64 only ones I’d put above it. Maybe 85.

I'm not sure how the values are calculated on the forecast sites but PSL maintains a daily timeseries from 1948. For DJF December 1983 hold the highest at -553.65. 1989 -412.12 is notable. Though you don't necessarily need very deep values of the EPO to have a big outbreak, if it is in the deep -3s, -4s, and -5 SDs you're probably looking at a big dome of high pressure system sending cold into the front range.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[Ntxw]

0z ICON

Sprawling cold high pressure system in Canada, cold surging down the plains and trough digging in the mountain west.

[Brent]