ATL: IRENE - Models

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Jevo
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#4921 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:04 pm

Ok then back onto the models... looks like the 0z NAM is getting ready to run.. Once again the NAM is pretty horrible when it comes tropical cyclone forecasting, but it does a good job at forecasting synoptics. Do not focus on the location of the storm once the images star getting posted, but rather the enviroment ahead of it
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4922 Postby Janie2006 » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:07 pm

That EURO run would bring the eye of Irene up through New Jersey and some really heavy weather into NYC in addition to big problems with storm surge.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4923 Postby jpigott » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:10 pm

What's the new CMC saying? Last one trended a little further west in the short term vs. the other models. Brought Irene over Grand Bahama whereas the other models were over the Abacos.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4924 Postby Stephanie » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:11 pm

That's a pretty major shift west again for the Euro. They're all fine tuning themselves. :eek:

Goodbye NJ shoreline. Yeah, this is mellow dramatic but 10 years ago in September...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4925 Postby Jevo » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:11 pm

Janie2006 wrote:That EURO run would bring the eye of Irene up through New Jersey and some really heavy weather into NYC in addition to big problems with storm surge.


Yeah the 12z Euro run was pretty eye opening for those in the DELMARVA/NJ/NY area... Irene is going to have me awake again until 2am waiting for the 0z to come through to see if there are any changes
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4926 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:12 pm

People following this thread will recall that on Monday, stations in the southeast/mid-atlantic started doing radiosonde (weather balloon) launches 4 times a day (vice the normal two). The number of stations doing that is now being increased.

NOUS42 KWNO 250028
ADMNFD


SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0028Z WED AUG 25 2011

THIS MESSAGE IS BEING RESENT UPON REQUEST...
THERE ARE NO CHANGES FROM THE ORIGINAL 2214Z ISSUANCE...

NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...

SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/S
IN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS
MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS
/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN
FORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE
IRENE.

$$

STOUDT/SDM/NCO/NCEP
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4927 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:12 pm

Stephanie wrote:That's a pretty major shift west again for the Euro. They're all fine tuning themselves. :eek:

Goodbye NJ shoreline. Yeah, this is mellow dramatic but 10 years ago in September...


well the euro did run like 7 hours ago ...so in about 5 hours the 0z run should have everyone's attention (since the euro is king)

but i heard people who have access to the euro ensembles (pro-mets) say they were suprised....b/c they thought the euro ensembles would be further east than the OPeration euro shows. (the free one ).....but they weren't they were spread a bit on both sides (according to said person)
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4928 Postby shaggy » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:20 pm

cpdaman wrote:
Stephanie wrote:That's a pretty major shift west again for the Euro. They're all fine tuning themselves. :eek:

Goodbye NJ shoreline. Yeah, this is mellow dramatic but 10 years ago in September...


well the euro did run like 7 hours ago ...so in about 5 hours the 0z run should have everyone's attention (since the euro is king)

but i heard people who have access to the euro ensembles (pro-mets) say they were suprised....b/c they thought the euro ensembles would be further east than the OPeration euro shows. (the free one ).....but they weren't they were spread a bit on both sides (according to said person)



Heard that on another board also. They also said the cmc ensembles had several members west of its op run as well. The impression I got was that there was still room for westward shifts in the coming models cycles.
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#4929 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:23 pm

The 12zECMWF Ensemble Control Run has Irene close to Atlantic City moving north by 7pm Sunday. This would be really bad news for New York City.
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#4930 Postby cpdaman » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:26 pm

Rgv20 wrote:The 12zECMWF Ensemble Control Run has Irene close to Atlantic City moving north by 7pm Sunday. This would be really bad news for New York City.


yup the damage in dollar terms due to coastal flooding per the EURO track along nearly a 700 mile stretch from NC to mass would be disturbing.

insurance company's are not sleeping
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4931 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:37 pm

I suspect the power companies up and down the east coast aren't sleeping either. I can't even imagine how many people are going to be without power.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4932 Postby FireRat » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:39 pm

Stephanie wrote:That's a pretty major shift west again for the Euro. They're all fine tuning themselves. :eek:

Goodbye NJ shoreline. Yeah, this is mellow dramatic but 10 years ago in September...


And to top it off this storm makes 9/1/1.......eerie :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4933 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:40 pm

FireRat wrote:
Stephanie wrote:That's a pretty major shift west again for the Euro. They're all fine tuning themselves. :eek:

Goodbye NJ shoreline. Yeah, this is mellow dramatic but 10 years ago in September...


And to top it off this storm makes 9/1/1.......eerie :eek:


Wow, that is weird...
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#4934 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:41 pm

00z early cycle model guidance:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4935 Postby drezee » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:54 pm

NAM has started...I know...at least something to look at

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4936 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:58 pm

If Irene were to end up more in the Del/Mar/Va region, I wonder if any buildings were weakened enough by the earthquake yesterday to become more severely damaged.

Probably not, but then again, can't help but wonder...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4937 Postby Stephanie » Wed Aug 24, 2011 9:11 pm

drezee wrote:
FireRat wrote:
Stephanie wrote:That's a pretty major shift west again for the Euro. They're all fine tuning themselves. :eek:

Goodbye NJ shoreline. Yeah, this is mellow dramatic but 10 years ago in September...


And to top it off this storm makes 9/1/1.......eerie :eek:


Wow, that is weird...


REALLY?? :double: That just gave me a chill!

Texas Snowman - I'm sure the earthquake didn't help the older, abandoned buildings.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4938 Postby InstantWeatherMaps » Wed Aug 24, 2011 9:12 pm

To anyone who has been using my site, I just now added Min/Max numbers to the bottom right of my maps (starting with the 2011-08-25 00Z GFS run... the maps have been generated for today's 18Z but the share links still point to the old pictures). Here is an example from the 18Z GFS run, clearly showing Irene (the lowest pressure on the map) at 960.6 mb:
Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4939 Postby Stephanie » Wed Aug 24, 2011 9:47 pm

InstantWeatherMaps wrote:To anyone who has been using my site, I just now added Min/Max numbers to the bottom right of my maps (starting with the 2011-08-25 00Z GFS run... the maps have been generated for today's 18Z but the share links still point to the old pictures). Here is an example from the 18Z GFS run, clearly showing Irene (the lowest pressure on the map) at 960.6 mb:
http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/2665 ... msl090.gif[/img]


Love this! Just bookmarked the site! :)
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4940 Postby jpigott » Wed Aug 24, 2011 10:29 pm

0z GFS should be running here soon
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