ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Ian2401]

why does the UKMET show such a SW dip? is that possible? havent seen much of it on other models

[psyclone]

Does anyone know from 5 day model outputs whether there is still a potential if him being a major entering ENC? Getting kind of anxious up here now too! I didn’t like there pressures I saw on the legacy or euro last runs! Any help would be appreciated! Thanks

What you're asking is important but unknowable. we're within a half hour of the latest output from the smartest people around on this stuff. Were I you I would
A.) Look at the wind probabilities for your location from the NHC
B.) Continue to monitor them over subsequent forecast cycles in an effort to establish a baseline of risk and determine whether that risk is increasing or decreasing with time.
Good luck

[mpic]

Probably a stupid question, but if the atmospheric conditions around Dorian hasn't been sampled for a couple days, do they have enough other information to compensate for it?

[Ian2401]

Probably a stupid question, but if the atmospheric conditions around Dorian hasn't been sampled for a couple days, do they have enough other information to compensate for it?

they have recon sampling it now. hopefully itll be inputted into the 18z model suites

[AdamFirst]

The full atmospheric data will be inputted for the 0z suites.

[RL3AO]

Probably a stupid question, but if the atmospheric conditions around Dorian hasn't been sampled for a couple days, do they have enough other information to compensate for it?

Most of the data (probably 95+%) that goes into models is from satellites. It's rare to get the extra data and the models still handle things well most of the time.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

You will know if UKMET is right because if it dips WSW ...its the only model saying that.

Just remember that little detail in the next 2 days

[rigbyrigz]

In this era of social media (tweets) and the usual news reports citing “extreme” outcomes to raise our pulse and clicks, the misuse or misunderstanding of spaghetti models to communicate danger is indeed troublesome. I have lurked here for some time finally just joined to ask a question, or 2.

Since I have formerly been one of the 50-100 “guests” lurking 24/7 and mollycoddling friends and relatives in the possible paths, I cannot say how appreciative many of us are for shedding light and truth on the actual state of affairs. So thanks to all, as well as the rescuers and others helping and posting.

Since y’all are mostly so kind and helpful with your time and efforts, I just wanted to emphasize that while some are coming at ya a bit for expressing the potential benefits of trends or shifts, there is gratitude and affection aplenty out here. But yes, we dumbos do make some plans based upon what we read here so the guidelines from mods and others does indeed make a lot of sense.

[mutley]

In this era of social media (tweets) and the usual news reports citing “extreme” outcomes to raise our pulse and clicks, the misuse or misunderstanding of spaghetti models to communicate danger is indeed troublesome. I have lurked here for some time finally just joined to ask a question, or 2.

Since I have formerly been one of the 50-100 “guests” lurking 24/7 and mollycoddling friends and relatives in the possible paths, I cannot say how appreciative many of us are for shedding light and truth on the actual state of affairs. So thanks to all, as well as the rescuers and others helping and posting.

Since y’all are mostly so kind and helpful with your time and efforts, I just wanted to emphasize that while some are coming at ya a bit for expressing the potential benefits of trends or shifts, there is gratitude and affection aplenty out here. But yes, we dumbos do make some plans based upon what we read here so the guidelines from mods and others does indeed make a lot of sense.

Great comment and right on many points.

[chaser1]

Euro has a few that are similar.. and same with GFS>. dont count anything out. very tricky situation.

The vast majority of guidance is through the Northwestern Bahamas and cutting close to the Carolinas.

yeah that is not the point..

point is the Dorian will be sitting on a table balanced on a pole.. things can tip any direction.

WINNING analogy of the day Aric

[PandaCitrus]

18z ICON German Global Model has Dorian landfalling in Ft. Lauderdale after a slow due west.

[floridasun78]

18z ICON German Global Model has Dorian landfalling in Ft. Lauderdale after a slow due west.

what i can see icon not use by nhc

[Canelaw99]

18z ICON German Global Model has Dorian landfalling in Ft. Lauderdale after a slow due west.

I would love for someone to compare the runs of the GICON (German ICON) to what the storm has been doing. It has hardly waivered from its track this whole time.

[chaser1]

Does anyone know from 5 day model outputs whether there is still a potential if him being a major entering ENC? Getting kind of anxious up here now too! I didn’t like there pressures I saw on the legacy or euro last runs! Any help would be appreciated! Thanks

Too early to say but certainly within the realm of possibility.

[mutley]

18z ICON German Global Model has Dorian landfalling in Ft. Lauderdale after a slow due west.

What does that model see so differently?

[Steve]

18z ICON German Global Model has Dorian landfalling in Ft. Lauderdale after a slow due west.

what i can see icon not use by nhc

Tropical Tidbits in global models. What’s up 78?

[PandaCitrus]

18z German ICON

[BobHarlem]

18z ICON German Global Model has Dorian landfalling in Ft. Lauderdale after a slow due west.

What does that model see so differently?

More influence from the low to the west. You can go all the back to 12z Tuesday before it gets wildly off from where Dorian is now. Runs til current position is bad is a count I keep when I'm hyper analyzing the models like right now.

[Steve]

18z ICON German Global Model has Dorian landfalling in Ft. Lauderdale after a slow due west.

I would love for someone to compare the runs of the GICON (German ICON) to what the storm has been doing. It has hardly waivered from its track this whole time.

Too out of pocket but also if you go to tropical tidbits you can go back days of runs if you have time. It’s mostly been a southern outlier but was one of the first models to indicate a sw dip like back on Tuesday or Wednesday I think. Then it was more west but stayed south of the other models. I’m sure it hasn’t done great, but it’s been persistent about staying more far south latitude and farther west than about everything else.

I’d also say it’s been one of the earliest and most aggressive models with the low in the gulf moving across the next few days. So there’s that.

[gatorcane]

18Z ICON has barely budged from its prior 12Z solution and would be catastrophic for metro SE Florida as it barely moves it up the coastline: