ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[hsvwx]

12Z CMC has Gustav just off the Alabama coastline at 96 hours.

[KWT]

Looks like its going over the south eastern side of the island right now, big convective burst is probably fooling Frank into thinking its getting decloupled but its perfectly obvious thats not the case on the higher resolution imagery.

So close to the water still its probably still getting a good amount of energy into its inner core.

[dwg71]

VDM - 17.97 N 76.23 W

[Steve Cosby]

Matter of fact looking at the 12Z run of the GFS it doesn't even have a closed low where Gus is concerned from the NW Carib. to the Central GOM.

Didn't we go through this last year with Dean? GFS had the right track but off on intensity big. I will also add that if Jamaica does another number on Gustav, in the short term the GFS will be right.

The GFS (along with other global models) do not have the resolution of the hurricane models. Think of it this way: the HWRF is your HD TV and the GFS is the old reliable tube TV that we grew up with.

It's not going to be able to nail the intensity - that's not its job - it is there to see where the ridges and troughs are going to be, in essence (yes, I know WAY over-simplifying).

[HouTXmetro]

12Z CMC has Gustav just off the Alabama coastline at 96 hours.

WOW, Hasn't the CMC been further West of all the models?

[Yankeegirl]

This storm is giving me a headache, everytime i check the models its either going to the east or back to the west... i am almost getting motion sickness!! of course i dont like the westerly track of it but its going to do what it wants to do.

[RL3AO]

65kt surface from recon.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, there is no way it has the right forecast running with a open low pressure area.

Didn't we go through this last year with Dean? GFS had the right track but off on intensity big. I will also add that if Jamaica does another number on Gustav, in the short term the GFS will be right.

I don't remember the specifics with Dean but we are talking about a forecasted weakening ridge here not simply getting steered around a ridge.

[ColdFusion]

This storm is giving me a headache, everytime i check the models its either going to the east or back to the west... i am almost getting motion sickness!! of course i dont like the westerly track of it but its going to do what it wants to do.

...and they will continue to do so for many days.

[Category 5]

65kt surface from recon.

Yeah I'm expecting a TCU to upgrade this now. They have everything they need.

[Sabanic]

12Z CMC has Gustav just off the Alabama coastline at 96 hours.

WOW, Hasn't the CMC been further West of all the models?

Isn't this fun? None of the good models can be discounted at this time. Too much consistancy with several to ignore.

[KWT]

Yep can't argue with that RL3AO , NHC are going to have to upgrade this in a special I guess.

[cycloneye]

65kt surface from recon.

Special advisory?

[pojo]

Dang, do we got enough Recon planes for all that could be on the table here soon????

it could be a challenge... but yes it is possible.

[alan1961]

JMO, i can see this missing the yucatan channel and going more over cuba than the NHC track...why?..i think strength will drag it on a more NW Passage...and i think that high pressure guiding Gustav will start to weaken tomorrow and after Gustav as slightly weakened interacting with jamaica he'll restrengthen again and reach cat 2/3 before a turn more to the NNW and threaten the FL keys..i'm basing this on a weakening high over Gustav and the storm reaching cat 2/3 status moving more poleward..JMO..like i said.

[Dean4Storms]

Matter of fact looking at the 12Z run of the GFS it doesn't even have a closed low where Gus is concerned from the NW Carib. to the Central GOM.

Didn't we go through this last year with Dean? GFS had the right track but off on intensity big. I will also add that if Jamaica does another number on Gustav, in the short term the GFS will be right.

The GFS (along with other global models) do not have the resolution of the hurricane models. Think of it this way: the HWRF is your HD TV and the GFS is the old reliable tube TV that we grew up with.

It's not going to be able to nail the intensity - that's not its job - it is there to see where the ridges and troughs are going to be, in essence (yes, I know WAY over-simplifying).

Exactly and that is just what I'm saying, because it cannot get the true intensity it therefore cannot turn steeper into the weakening ridge.

[RL3AO]

Never mind. I looked at the dropsonde too quick. The 65kt is at 906mb. There was no wind reading below that which is strange.

[HURAKAN]

[soonertwister]

It doesn't mean much--especially because the run is not focused on Gustav, it's focused on Hanna, but the latest GFDL run of Hanna shows Gustav doing the same as the others--it slows down as it approaches (SE Louisiana) and then curves to the west just off the coast. Curious.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

For some reason that link just brings up a blank page for me and does nothing.

[ColdFusion]

Cool, check out the exploding cloud tops near the center in this animation
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html