ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

NOAA2

[tallbunch]

puerto rico and the bahamas called to say you fail

I was typing about a EAST coast landfall.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 240151
XXAA 74018 99221 70721 08022 99999 25221 05559 00509 ///// /////
92673 20206 06568 85405 19421 09063 88999 77999
31313 09608 80117
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 1009A IRENE OB 32
62626 REL 2207N07212W 011725 SPG 2205N07219W 012101 WL150 05063 0
85 DLM WND 07561 998752 MBL WND 05065 RAINBAND=

XXBB 74018 99221 70721 08022 00999 25221 11988 24414 22932 20407
33858 19822 44775 15636 55766 152// 66752 13600
21212 00999 05559 11994 05565 22968 05064 33949 05568 44944 05573
55932 06565 66922 06570 77860 09063 88752 08050
31313 09608 80117
51515 10167 07775
61616 NOAA2 1009A IRENE OB 32
62626 REL 2207N07212W 011725 SPG 2205N07219W 012101 WL150 05063 0
85 DLM WND 07561 998752 MBL WND 05065 RAINBAND=

[cheezyWXguy]

puerto rico and the bahamas called to say you fail

I was typing about a EAST coast landfall.

not a fish if it hits land.

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 32 NOAA2

Code: Select all

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 01:51Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 32

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 1Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 22.1N 72.1W
Location: 76 miles (122 km) to the NW (306°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
999mb (29.50 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 23.1°C (73.6°F) 55° (from the NE) 59 knots (68 mph)
1000mb -9m (-30 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 673m (2,208 ft) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 19.6°C (67.3°F) 65° (from the ENE) 68 knots (78 mph)
850mb 1,405m (4,610 ft) 19.4°C (66.9°F) 17.3°C (63.1°F) 90° (from the E) 63 knots (72 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 1:17Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Additional Data
- Temperature data is doubtful between the following levels: 750mb - 770mb

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in rainband.

Release Location: 22.07N 72.12W View map)
Release Time: 1:17:25Z

Splash Location: 22.05N 72.19W (
Splash Time: 1:21:01Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 50° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 65 knots (75 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 75° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 61 knots (70 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 752mb to 998mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 50° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 63 knots (72 mph)


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
999mb (Surface) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 23.1°C (73.6°F)
988mb 24.4°C (75.9°F) 23.0°C (73.4°F)
932mb 20.4°C (68.7°F) 19.7°C (67.5°F)
858mb 19.8°C (67.6°F) 17.6°C (63.7°F)
775mb 15.6°C (60.1°F) 12.0°C (53.6°F)
766mb 15.2°C (59.4°F) 15.2°C (59.4°F)
752mb 13.6°C (56.5°F) 13.6°C (56.5°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
999mb (Surface) 55° (from the NE) 59 knots (68 mph)
994mb 55° (from the NE) 65 knots (75 mph)
968mb 50° (from the NE) 64 knots (74 mph)
949mb 55° (from the NE) 68 knots (78 mph)
944mb 55° (from the NE) 73 knots (84 mph)
932mb 65° (from the ENE) 65 knots (75 mph)
922mb 65° (from the ENE) 70 knots (81 mph)
860mb 90° (from the E) 63 knots (72 mph)
752mb 80° (from the E) 50 knots (58 mph)




[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240200
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 27 20110824
015000 2217N 07327W 6966 03133 0037 +085 +082 051047 047 040 001 00
015030 2218N 07328W 6969 03133 0038 +085 +081 051050 051 038 001 00
015100 2219N 07329W 6967 03135 0035 +086 +078 051054 055 036 000 00
015130 2221N 07331W 6967 03133 0031 +090 +068 052057 058 034 000 00
015200 2222N 07332W 6967 03133 0030 +094 +064 053055 056 034 001 03
015230 2223N 07333W 6967 03135 0028 +095 +063 054052 054 033 001 00
015300 2225N 07335W 6967 03134 0028 +096 +062 055050 050 031 001 00
015330 2226N 07336W 6967 03135 0033 +093 +058 054048 048 028 000 00
015400 2227N 07337W 6967 03135 0032 +095 +054 055050 051 031 000 00
015430 2228N 07339W 6966 03138 0037 +093 +056 055050 051 031 001 00
015500 2230N 07340W 6966 03143 0043 +090 +056 051048 050 029 000 03
015530 2231N 07341W 6966 03147 0049 +086 +056 051048 051 028 000 03
015600 2232N 07342W 6969 03143 0057 +080 +068 058050 052 031 000 00
015630 2234N 07343W 6968 03146 0059 +079 +072 061049 050 030 001 00
015700 2235N 07344W 6969 03145 0060 +080 +069 064050 050 030 001 00
015730 2237N 07345W 6967 03149 0060 +081 +064 063049 050 030 000 00
015800 2239N 07345W 6965 03148 0061 +081 +054 063046 047 029 000 00
015830 2240N 07346W 6968 03147 0064 +079 +057 063044 044 030 000 00
015900 2242N 07347W 6967 03148 0068 +076 +059 061043 043 030 001 00
015930 2243N 07347W 6967 03148 0068 +075 +059 060043 043 047 005 03
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 240151
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 36 20110824
014130 2323N 07259W 7506 02551 0071 +135 +082 079044 045 043 001 00
014200 2324N 07301W 7504 02553 0074 +131 +081 080046 047 039 000 00
014230 2325N 07303W 7504 02551 0079 +125 +083 081049 051 038 001 00
014300 2327N 07305W 7504 02553 0087 +120 +078 079050 051 036 002 00
014330 2328N 07307W 7505 02553 0087 +118 +090 076050 052 034 000 00
014400 2329N 07309W 7508 02548 0089 +114 +119 075051 054 033 006 00
014430 2331N 07311W 7503 02554 0091 +112 //// 078051 055 033 004 01
014500 2332N 07313W 7495 02566 0096 +111 +095 077049 051 032 000 00
014530 2333N 07315W 7516 02544 0102 +109 +088 075050 050 031 001 00
014600 2335N 07317W 7515 02548 0103 +110 +089 074050 052 031 000 00
014630 2336N 07319W 7512 02548 0101 +111 +088 077048 050 031 000 00
014700 2337N 07321W 7515 02547 0105 +109 +089 078048 049 030 000 00
014730 2338N 07324W 7514 02547 0097 +115 +086 075046 046 029 001 00
014800 2340N 07326W 7513 02550 0091 +125 +081 072041 043 030 000 00
014830 2341N 07328W 7515 02550 0095 +123 +076 070043 043 030 001 00
014900 2342N 07330W 7512 02552 0097 +119 +082 070044 045 027 001 00
014930 2343N 07332W 7513 02550 0099 +116 +092 069044 045 028 000 00
015000 2344N 07334W 7511 02553 0103 +112 +090 069043 043 027 001 00
015030 2345N 07336W 7515 02548 0102 +112 +087 072043 044 030 001 00
015100 2347N 07338W 7511 02553 0102 +112 +087 073043 044 032 000 00

[ozonepete]

puerto rico and the bahamas called to say you fail

I was typing about a EAST coast landfall.

So people in North Carolina to New England should let their guard down? I can't believe that's what you mean but a lot of people on here don't know who the experts are.

[sunnyday]

I see that most are concentrating on the people from the Carolinas north, and rightly so they should be. However, I just want to bring up a couple of things about S Fl. I notice that right now the very western edge of the cone on the Storm 2k site still has coastal east Florida in it (and, yes, I understand what the cone means). The other thing, and I would like to know if any other southeast Floridians are feeling this right now, that a major (probably) hurricane is headed to the Bahamas right in our front door, so to speak. I looked up the distance from the Jupiter inlet to Grand Bahama, and it is 55 miles. How in the world can they be so positive that it won't wobble that short of a distance and be some kind of problem to this area? It wouldn't take much to be on us, would it? We do not have so much as a ts watch here. I would love to hear from anyone who feels as uncomfortable as I do with that monster storm going to be so very close to us so soon.

[HurricaneWarning92]

I see that most are concentrating on the people from the Carolinas north, and rightly so they should be. However, I just want to bring up a couple of things about S Fl. I notice that right now the very western edge of the cone on the Storm 2k site still has coastal east Florida in it (and, yes, I understand what the cone means). The other thing, and I would like to know if any other southeast Floridians are feeling this right now, that a major (probably) hurricane is headed to the Bahamas right in our front door, so to speak. I looked up the distance from the Jupiter inlet to Grand Bahama, and it is 55 miles. How in the world can they be so positive that it won't wobble that short of a distance and be some kind of problem to this area? It wouldn't take much to be on us, would it? We do not have so much as a ts watch here. I would love to hear from anyone who feels as uncomfortable as I do with that monster storm going to be so very close to us so soon.

I mentioned about the cone earlier today, but someone said it wasnt updated and that it shouldnt be used as offical forecast. seems to me it still hasnt "updated". BUt yeah i see what you are saying.

[GCANE]

Wow, I don't think I have seen a structure like this before.

TRMM is showing the eye-wall and a good part of the inner feeder bands as large hot-towers.

Irene is going to really get cranking now.


http://64.19.142.15/www.nrlmry.navy.mil ... W.19pc.jpg

[tallbunch]

:[/quote]

So people in North Carolina to New England should let their guard down? I can't believe that's what you mean but a lot of people on here don't know who the experts are.[/quote]


What? It was purely a opinion. I don't think anyone that has a hurricane coming at them is going to say "oh nope, we shouldn't prepare, cause someone on storm2k thinks its going to be a fish".

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 240201
NOAA2 1009A IRENE HDOB 37 20110824
015130 2348N 07340W 7490 02575 0095 +117 +085 078038 038 032 000 00
015200 2350N 07342W 7336 02749 0089 +115 +068 077038 039 035 000 00
015230 2351N 07344W 7152 02965 0083 +109 +055 080036 036 035 000 00
015300 2352N 07346W 6955 03200 0079 +100 +045 080035 035 034 000 00
015330 2354N 07348W 6838 03341 0078 +093 +037 081035 035 032 000 00
015400 2355N 07350W 6695 03518 0075 +085 +027 077038 038 029 001 00
015430 2356N 07352W 6552 03699 0069 +078 +021 075036 038 027 000 00
015500 2358N 07355W 6414 03876 0059 +075 +013 073038 039 027 000 00
015530 2359N 07357W 6256 04081 0058 +063 +011 069037 038 029 000 00
015600 2400N 07359W 6098 04290 0062 +047 +003 070034 035 028 001 00
015630 2401N 07401W 5972 04459 0054 +041 -006 064039 040 028 001 00
015700 2403N 07403W 5952 04489 0058 +038 -008 061036 037 030 000 00
015730 2404N 07405W 5948 04495 0061 +036 -011 060035 036 030 000 00
015800 2405N 07407W 5945 04500 0065 +035 -009 060034 035 029 000 00
015830 2407N 07410W 5945 04499 0064 +034 -009 061035 036 026 000 00
015900 2408N 07412W 5946 04497 0061 +036 -021 058035 035 025 001 00
015930 2410N 07414W 5942 04499 0064 +035 -042 055033 034 026 000 00
020000 2411N 07417W 5944 04497 0064 +032 +001 054030 031 024 001 00
020030 2413N 07419W 5913 04544 0067 +033 -035 058031 032 026 000 03
020100 2414N 07422W 5932 04517 0060 +037 -017 058030 031 /// /// 03

NOAA2 Mission Over...

[ConvergenceZone]

I see that most are concentrating on the people from the Carolinas north, and rightly so they should be. However, I just want to bring up a couple of things about S Fl. I notice that right now the very western edge of the cone on the Storm 2k site still has coastal east Florida in it (and, yes, I understand what the cone means). The other thing, and I would like to know if any other southeast Floridians are feeling this right now, that a major (probably) hurricane is headed to the Bahamas right in our front door, so to speak. I looked up the distance from the Jupiter inlet to Grand Bahama, and it is 55 miles. How in the world can they be so positive that it won't wobble that short of a distance and be some kind of problem to this area? It wouldn't take much to be on us, would it? We do not have so much as a ts watch here. I would love to hear from anyone who feels as uncomfortable as I do with that monster storm going to be so very close to us so soon.

I think Irene would have to break a law of physics to somehow affect Florida. I think the reason you don't hear it mentioned is because the the pattern that Irene is in won't allow it to affect Florida.... If the NHC even thought there was a teensy tiny chance of it hitting Florida, they would be all over it...I think it's the cone only because they aren't going to change the cone parameters just for this one instance.

[Portastorm]

What? It was purely a opinion. I don't think anyone that has a hurricane coming at them is going to say "oh nope, we shouldn't prepare, cause someone on storm2k thinks its going to be a fish".

You'd be surprised ... trust me.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 240210
AF302 1109A IRENE HDOB 28 20110824
020000 2245N 07348W 6970 03145 0060 +083 +056 062042 042 035 003 03
020030 2246N 07349W 6963 03155 0052 +091 +050 059039 040 024 000 03
020100 2247N 07351W 6969 03147 0049 +095 +046 055038 038 023 000 00
020130 2248N 07353W 6967 03153 0052 +091 +076 051038 039 020 000 00
020200 2249N 07354W 6969 03149 0055 +086 +085 049040 041 022 000 00
020230 2250N 07356W 6967 03154 0047 +095 +070 049040 041 021 000 00
020300 2252N 07357W 6967 03154 0055 +087 +080 052038 040 022 001 00
020330 2253N 07359W 6967 03152 0057 +088 +085 056037 037 021 000 00
020400 2254N 07401W 6965 03158 0059 +085 //// 059035 036 022 001 01
020430 2255N 07402W 6969 03154 0060 +085 //// 063035 036 021 002 01
020500 2256N 07404W 6967 03155 0063 +083 //// 068036 037 022 000 01
020530 2257N 07406W 6967 03155 0060 +086 //// 069037 038 023 000 01
020600 2258N 07408W 6967 03157 0058 +089 +085 063037 038 026 000 00
020630 2259N 07409W 6967 03158 0062 +089 +072 057036 037 026 000 00
020700 2300N 07411W 6965 03162 0058 +094 +057 058036 036 027 000 00
020730 2301N 07413W 6970 03156 0056 +097 +047 058035 036 026 000 00
020800 2302N 07414W 6966 03163 0053 +101 +044 059034 034 026 000 00
020830 2303N 07416W 6967 03159 0047 +105 +043 062032 033 025 000 00
020900 2304N 07418W 6967 03162 0060 +095 +048 063036 037 027 001 00
020930 2306N 07419W 6967 03162 0063 +093 +051 063038 039 029 000 03
$$
;

[linkerweather]

I see that most are concentrating on the people from the Carolinas north, and rightly so they should be. However, I just want to bring up a couple of things about S Fl. I notice that right now the very western edge of the cone on the Storm 2k site still has coastal east Florida in it (and, yes, I understand what the cone means). The other thing, and I would like to know if any other southeast Floridians are feeling this right now, that a major (probably) hurricane is headed to the Bahamas right in our front door, so to speak. I looked up the distance from the Jupiter inlet to Grand Bahama, and it is 55 miles. How in the world can they be so positive that it won't wobble that short of a distance and be some kind of problem to this area? It wouldn't take much to be on us, would it? We do not have so much as a ts watch here. I would love to hear from anyone who feels as uncomfortable as I do with that monster storm going to be so very close to us so soon.

I think Irene would have to break a law of physics to somehow affect Florida. I think the reason you don't hear it mentioned is because the the pattern that Irene is in won't allow it to affect Florida.... If the NHC even thought there was a teensy tiny chance of it hitting Florida, they would be all over it...I think it's the cone only because they aren't going to change the cone parameters just for this one instance.

Remember the cone isn't even a forecast so it never changes its parameters from storm to storm. The cone that you see is simply a graphical representation of historical error at those time periods..12...24...36...48...72...96...120

[GCANE]

Hot towers still firing and ADT has raw T# at 6.0

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html

[UpTheCreek]

:I don't think anyone that has a hurricane coming at them is going to say "oh nope, we shouldn't prepare, cause someone on storm2k thinks its going to be a fish".

Well, you obviously haven't met as many people as I have. I've met a few that would do just that. I know, it's an unfortunate commentary on the human race, but it's true!

[Dave]