Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Portastorm]

The NWS Southern Region's guidance to its WFOs is that Winter Storm Watches are generally issued 24 to 36 hours prior to the onset of an event with an occasional watch being allowed to be issued 48 hours in advance.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at other models and they are not quite as cold especially for NE TX. At noon the GFS shows 28 for Tyler, the NAM shows 33, GGEM shows 30 and the SREF is similar to the GFS. All show slowly falling temps for the afternoon. The GFS gives us about .25 QPF for the 24 hours ending at 6PM Monday, the NAM is around .1, the GGEM is around .75 and the SREF is around .4. Looking at all of that I would say I am looking at around .15-.35 inches of QPF while below freezing with daytime temps Monday in the 27-31 range. Except for the NAM all show a significant winter storm and with it being the NAM I don't feel much hesitation tossing its solution out.

[TexasF6]

It's coming. It's gonna be mean too.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If the highs would crash down like last year, i think we would all be happy campers.

Going to be close here in SE Tx too not getting too excited about it though.

[iorange55]

This is the first storm I feel confident about this year. I just hope we can bring down those temps above to mix in some snow. Although, with us being down 10 in the 4th quarter, I'd gladly take a decent sleet storm.

[TheProfessor]

The 12z CMC looks to be extremely icy for the I-35 corridor and westward.

[weatherdude1108]

Another great post by Hampshire!

000
FXUS64 KEWX 201615
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1015 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY JUST TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

Just teasing.
Just thought I'd be cheesy. Kidding aside, I am seriously glad this office has him.

TGIF!!

[Brent]

12z GFS also has a snowstorm next Friday. It's only 7 days out yall!

[Ralph's Weather]

If the highs would crash down like last year, i think we would all be happy campers.

Going to be close here in SE Tx too not getting too excited about it though.

The problem with crashing highs is that it brings down dry air. This set up keeps it plenty cold especially for north Texas and allows for storms to under cut it.

[SouthernMet]

Central tx folks may need to keep a close eye on what the SREF is on to.

[Stormcenter]

Graphics please.

12z GFS also has a snowstorm next Friday. It's only 7 days out yall!

[Portastorm]

Central tx folks may need to keep a close eye on what the SREF is on to.

Yep ... I posted about that earlier today. The "wintry" precip may end up closer to central/south central/southeast Texas than what many of us were thinking going into today. I'm just not sure how accurate the SREF is, generally speaking.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS total snowfall over the next 7 days.....notice I said 7 days, not 15!!

[Ntxw]

Over/under we pull a Texas version of the Siege of Boston??

[orangeblood]

Over/under we pull a Texas version of the Siege of Boston??

If that GFS map came close to verifying, Tarrant and Dallas Counties are going to finally get their moneys worth from their Snow Plow purchase a few years ago, following the Super Bowl Debacle!!

[Brent]

and I see 16 at DFW on the 2m temps on March 6th... I thought 90s were coming!

Oh yeah... what I'd give for that snow map to verify.

[opticsguy]

This storm looks like the real deal for DFW. Time to split some firewood.

After checking some FL records for this morning. Key West 49F, KMIA 42F, Jackonsville Airport 24F. Brutal.

[Texas Snowman]

Over/under we pull a Texas version of the Siege of Boston??

Are you saying for the fourth quarter come-from-behind win?

[Tireman4]

Over/under we pull a Texas version of the Siege of Boston??

Are you saying for the fourth quarter come-from-behind win?

Deflategate?

[Texas Snowman]

Oh, there will be an attempted Deflategate any moment...