ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[caneman]

So far this is how models are performing on timing and track, no surprise the Euro is doing the best at day 4-5 range as JB mentioned yesterday on a tweet.
GFS is doing OK. CMC is doing almost as bad as the HWRF.
HWRF is messing up the TVCN consensus model big time.

This large shift west for them would likely kill that margin of error their enjoying. Lots of wind shield wiper still going on let's see if this West trend continues. We're getting inside of 100 hours now so margin of error is getting thinner

[NDG]

The reason why the Euro has shifted west, it has a stronger ridge over the NE US with the west coast trough staying there longer than earlier forecasted, unfortunately Euro is most times the King when it comes to day 5 sypnotic forecast.

[TheStormExpert]

Unfortunately the stronger ridging over the NE U.S. the the Euro is depicting would make much more sense given the way the pattern has been all summer long with stronger ridging over the NE U.S.

It'll be interesting to see if the GFS follows suite, especially what the 12z Euro shows later today.

[SFLcane]

Not good folks not good...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/782873960807407616

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/782876665646985216

[stormreader]

Not good folks not good...

That's was a big shift west. Doesn't seem likely at all that it would go back east. It's to be finally beginning to get a handle on the strength of the Atlantic Ridge. Could vey we'll be one more medium adjustment west by this time tomorrow.

[stormreader]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/782873960807407616

Matter of fact the ensembles do seem to be weighted more left. Good chance more west shift coming as we finally get a handle on this.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/782873960807407616

Matter of fact the ensembles do seem to be weighted more left. Good chance more west shift coming as we finally get a handle on this.

Has been the same with the UKMET. You guys need to understand the ukmet co-ords posted by Alyono before and plotted are not a final product.

[stormreader]

:uarrow: Unfortunately the stronger ridging over the NE U.S. the the Euro is depicting would make much more sense given the way the pattern has been all summer long with stronger ridging over the NE U.S.

It'll be interesting to see if the GFS follows suite, especially what the 12z Euro shows later today.

It's been the basic pattern and was forecast to be so when the models were out very long range days ago. But there were these "phantom lows" or ULL's that no one could really find with any certainty. you knew it was bad when meteorologists scratched their heads for any number of days speculating on if this or that was to be the source of the weakness to allow Mathew to escape out to sea. Meanwhile the overall pattern of strong ridging remained dominant. This is a case where old time meteorologists from 50 years ago would have done better with the forecast than our latest models. And don't rule out a northwest bend that takes Mathew right into the Keys before turning it north.

[TheStormExpert]

Another look at the 00z Euro track with it's Ensembles and the NHC track plotted.

[SouthernBreeze]

that UKMET not looking good for SC either

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS has shifted east this run. 20 to 30 miles east of previous run off the OBX area.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS has shifted east this run. 20 to 30 miles east of previous run off the OBX area.

And about 20 miles further west in NW Bahamas...overall it held serve from 00z.

[Kingarabian]

So now the GFS will shift east and the Euro will shift west. Sigh.

[stormreader]

GFS has shifted east this run. 20 to 30 miles east of previous run off the OBX area.

And about 20 miles further west in NW Bahamas...overall it held serve from 00z.

Yeah, but now that we're coming into the 4-5 day window it will probably follow the lead of the Euro. Give it another 24 hours or so, it will either match the Euro or even be slightly west of it.

[BobHarlem]

So now the GFS will shift east and the Euro will shift west. Sigh.

The Euro is slower by about a day and feels the ridge more. 6z GFS is just shifting a tad east, eventually landfalls in Maine Sunday. The Euro's shift west is a lot more pronounced.

[otowntiger]

GFS has shifted east this run. 20 to 30 miles east of previous run off the OBX area.

And there you have it. That's why one can't get too caught up in the westward shifts on one particular group of models when another does just opposite. So far I still don't see much reason to get too concerned she. The NHC still keeps it safely offshore. It's likely for a reason their track hasn't shifted much. If I'm wrong I will gladly admit it.

[CDO62]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 16m16 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA

disturbing euro ensemble has more members into FLA.Sensing ridge off east coast,as usual stronger.UKMET in over Carolinas
Tough days ahead

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 9953469441

[Nimbus]

Matthew seems to be behaving according to the NHC in the short run rolling north just east of the 75N longitude.

The 00Z GFDL, GFS, and HWRF all suggesting an OTS solution is still possible, the NHC official track shift east is comforting.

After reading the Storm2k posts concerning the Euro I guess I can wait till later today for consensus concerning Florida, but no doubt the mountainous peninsula areas on Haiti are going to get some massive upslope rain even if the core of Matthew passes offshore.

Anyone hear about a relief ship on the way?