ATL: IKE Discussion

[robbielyn]

He's also not going to move inland for another 4 hours so I don't see him weakening until then.

NHC just put out a special statement saying Ike has made landfall. The surface center is near the southwest side of the eye on satellite.

Are you sure it's there because I think that image is from over half an hour ago and radar doesn't show that. I also think he's moving a tad north of west right now so that will stop him from moving inland IMO.

what sat pic are you looking at? You can see where the eyewall is partially inland.

[Vortex]

The small resort area of guardalavaca will take a direct hit with the strong N/NE causing a surge over the entire resort. Google earth it and you'll see what i mean. This is the worst case scenario for this town.

[jacindc]

Are you sure it's there because I think that image is from over half an hour ago and radar doesn't show that. I also think he's moving a tad north of west right now so that will stop him from moving inland IMO.

It's generally a good idea to not question whether a storm has made landfall once the NHC has sent out a landfall statement.

[Sanibel]

A lengthwise track of a strong hurricane will strip Cuba of economically important crops like tobacco and sugar cane.

[fasterdisaster]

He's also not going to move inland for another 4 hours so I don't see him weakening until then.

he already made landfall so what do you mean? he's going to hang on the coast for a while?

Yeah because looking at the coastline he went on a small piece of land that 'juts out' from the rest of the coast and since he is moving at about 275 he will hug the coastline for a good 4 hours I think.

[wxman57]

00Z plots. Pretty good consensus on Matagorda Bay to mid LA coast:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/IkeModels.gif

Whats in the gulf? Imaginary Water counties?

You're obviously not familiar with the offshore lease areas. Those pink areas are all offshore drilling lease areas. Tens of thousands of people work out there in the path of Ike. For example, GC = Green Canyon, MC = Mississippi Canyon, GA = Galveston, etc. Inside each pink area are hundreds of smaller lease blocks.

[Bon]

Man, Ike's got some rough mountains ahead..gonna be a very rough ride

[fasterdisaster]

Are you sure it's there because I think that image is from over half an hour ago and radar doesn't show that. I also think he's moving a tad north of west right now so that will stop him from moving inland IMO.

It's generally a good idea to not question whether a storm has made landfall once the NHC has sent out a landfall statement.

Come on people. What don't you get? I'm not arguing that he has not made landfall, there is a difference between 'onshore' and 'inland' and storms can usually maintain intensity if they are in an otherwise favorable environment and merely hugging the coastline.

[HarlequinBoy]

00Z plots. Pretty good consensus on Matagorda Bay to mid LA coast:

The Golden Triangle must be groaning.

[Wx_Warrior]

Everyone on the Texas coast is...OT, BTW, is that the infamous jonas bros on your avatar?

[JtSmarts]

Ok..i gotta ask...how in the world can Ike survive a trip through all of cuba and come back to hit the gulf coast as a hurricane?? Will he or could he just dissipate over cuba? Look what happened to Gustav with just a little land interaction.(No bashing please...just curious)

There are factors to take into account such as exactly how long he spends over land, the terrain of the land, and the upper atmosphere conditions. One of Gustav's biggest problems was the shear along with land interaction. It seems Ike will have much better conditions than Gustav to work with. I hope that helps some.

[DESTRUCTION5]

00Z plots. Pretty good consensus on Matagorda Bay to mid LA coast:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/IkeModels.gif

Whats in the gulf? Imaginary Water counties?

You're obviously not familiar with the offshore lease areas. Those pink areas are all offshore drilling lease areas. Tens of thousands of people work out there in the path of Ike. For example, GC = Green Canyon, MC = Mississippi Canyon, GA = Galveston, etc. Inside each pink area are hundreds of smaller lease blocks.

No figured it had something to do with oil and ur clients..Was joking really...

[cycloneye]

WTNT64 KNHC 080149
TCUAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
950 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...IKE MAKES LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA...

THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA IN THE PROVINCE OF HOLGUIN...NEAR PUNTO DE SAMA AROUND 0945 PM
EDT...0145 UTC. MAXIMUM WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 125
MPH...205 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[HarlequinBoy]

Everyone on the Texas coast is...OT, BTW, is that the infamous jonas bros on your avatar?

Yeah, I imagine so.

No, lol. It's the Gossip Girl cast. I did just watch them perform on the MTV VMAs though. (Sorry for the OT)

[SouthFLTropics]

00Z plots. Pretty good consensus on Matagorda Bay to mid LA coast:

The Golden Triangle must be groaning.

All of us are going to be groaning some more soon...At the gas pump!

SFT

[stormspotter]

I am truely sorry that Texas and possibly Louisiana has to possibly take on a potentially damaging storm. Its not looking good for you guys. The NHC has been so good with their track record, I'm afraid preparations are in your best interest. Our thoughts and prayers are with you.

[bahamaswx]

Why does everyone keep saying this is Ike's 2nd landfall? IIRC the eye passed directly over Grand Turk and Great Inagua, making this his 3rd landfall.

[BigB0882]

My mom was joking that last time it was Katrina for Louisiana and Rita for Texas (although, wasn't that technically a LA landfall? Oh well, she lives in Beaumont so to her it was a Texas storm) so since Louisiana had Gustav it would be Texas getting a big one soon. I hope she isn't right but Louisiana doesn't want yet another one. If this one hits around Cameron then it will be quite ironic.

[Vortex]

This looks to become a very large and intense hurricane for the upper texas coast..Look out houston/galveston!!

[Sabanic]

I am truely sorry that Texas and possibly Louisiana has to possibly take on a potentially damaging storm. Its not looking good for you guys. The NHC has been so good with their track record, I'm afraid preparations are in your best interest. Our thoughts and prayers are with you.

I feel the same way, but geez what is up with people conceding that Ike is definitely going to a certain location so far out? Just don't get caught with your pants down in case.