ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[hsvwx]

The CMC has been the worst of the flip floppers going from Texas to Louisiana to the west coast of Florida and now back to Alabama. Kind of hard to put any trust into that model.

hsvwx what is your opinion of the GFDL?

Well, since I am not necessarily a hurricane specialist, I cannot state statistics of how one model performs. However, it is very nice to see the continuity of the GFDL with a consistent track somewhere between SE Louisiana and the AL/MS border. That being said, you never know if it could be handling the synoptics of this situation incorrectly, leading to its more eastern solution. The ridge could be stronger and less progressive and force it more westward. I think by the time it is exiting Cuba we will have a much better idea of where Gustav will be headed. As I tell anyone who asks me, if you are in or near the cone, be prepared!

[ConvergenceZone]

There still seems to be a decoupling of the LLC and MLC, per this loop (as Derek noted yesterday at this time):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Wha? I see no such thing on that loop.

Me either. The storm looks very well organized. Can we stop with the dead posts?

I've given up on calling a system "dead" after eating crow this morning. I mean, I didn't call it dead, but I did think it would be an open wave or depression, sooooo I'm keeping my mouth shut when it comes to predictions on death....I mean, if it surived what it did over land yesterday and looked as bad as it did and then came back like a lion this morning, there's no way that Jamaica will tear it apart.

[Stormcenter]

12z GFDL hits AL/MS line, say goodbye to Mobile if it comes true!

I believe eventually with time the GFDL will line up with the other models somewhere between central LA. and the Upper TX coast. JMHO

[dwg71]

12z GFDL hits AL/MS line, say goodbye to Mobile if it comes true!

I believe eventually with time the GFDL will line up with the other models somewhere between central LA. and the Upper TX coast. JMHO

What models show upper texas coast?? NOGAPS? BAMS??

The model consensous has been Central LA for a couple of days now.

[Sjones]

12z GFDL hits AL/MS line, say goodbye to Mobile if it comes true!

I believe eventually with time the GFDL will line up with the other models somewhere between central LA. and the Upper TX coast. JMHO

What models show upper texas coast?? NOGAPS? BAMS??

The model consensous has been Central LA for a couple of days now.

HWRF Model shows SW La/ Upper Tx...too close to call

[KWT]

Yeah I think its getting increasingly likely that LA is the main target zone but then again I have noted that very often systems in this region do take slight NNE jogs before landfall, like Ivan and Katrina, still we shall have to see, the set-up is different in that the approach isn't so hard to the north as those two.

[Stormcenter]

12z GFDL hits AL/MS line, say goodbye to Mobile if it comes true!

I believe eventually with time the GFDL will line up with the other models somewhere between central LA. and the Upper TX coast. JMHO

What models show upper texas coast?? NOGAPS? BAMS??

The model consensous has been Central LA for a couple of days now.

No model support just my opinion based on the westward trend of teh models except for the GFDL.

[KWT]

The deep convection that has just blown up in the northern quadrant is showing awesome outflow it seems, its not going to do anything for Gustav overland though may help to hold it close to where it is but when it gets offland if it holds the inner core overland when it gets offland again, man this could explode...

[Windy]

FYI Tulane University just enacted their emergency protocol; the university shuts down at noon tomorrow. Any student who can't get the hell out of town will be bussed to Jackson State University to "ride out the storm".

http://emergency.tulane.edu/

[ConvergenceZone]

Dr Jeff Masters pretty much sums it up with this quote in his update posted an hour ago:

"It's time to get familiar with the names Hanna, Josephine, Ike, and Kyle, because the tropical Atlantic is about to put on a rare burst of very high activity in the coming weeks."

[dwg71]

I haven't seen much of a western trend. NHC moved forecast east at last update. Models have been focused on central to SE LA the past 48 hours or so.

Just my opinion.

[Stormcenter]

Dr Jeff Masters pretty much sums it up with this quote in his update posted an hour ago:

"It's time to get familiar with the names Hanna, Josephine, Ike, and Kyle, because the tropical Atlantic is about to put on a rare burst of very high activity in the coming weeks."

Where are the other 3?

[kurtpage]

Dr Jeff Masters pretty much sums it up with this quote in his update posted an hour ago:

"It's time to get familiar with the names Hanna, Josephine, Ike, and Kyle, because the tropical Atlantic is about to put on a rare burst of very high activity in the coming weeks."

Where are the other 3?

As he stated...they will be here in the coming weeks....



Edit to add smile at the end....

[pojo]

Dr Jeff Masters pretty much sums it up with this quote in his update posted an hour ago:

"It's time to get familiar with the names Hanna, Josephine, Ike, and Kyle, because the tropical Atlantic is about to put on a rare burst of very high activity in the coming weeks."

job security.

[mutley]

Dr Jeff Masters pretty much sums it up with this quote in his update posted an hour ago:

"It's time to get familiar with the names Hanna, Josephine, Ike, and Kyle, because the tropical Atlantic is about to put on a rare burst of very high activity in the coming weeks."

Where are the other 3?

[Air Force Met]

12z GFDL hits AL/MS line, say goodbye to Mobile if it comes true!

I believe eventually with time the GFDL will line up with the other models somewhere between central LA. and the Upper TX coast. JMHO

What models show upper texas coast?? NOGAPS? BAMS??

The model consensous has been Central LA for a couple of days now.

Nogaps...the NGPI...the UKMET is showing a movement well west of the consensus at 00z. Some of the consensus models (those that use NOGAPS) are closer to the upper tx coast. The GFS with its antics. Also the HWRF sorta shows it if you extrapolate the amount of turn to the NW/WNW at the end. So...there are some models showing it. Do I buy them just yet? No. I still say central LA...but my cone would now be from the Sabine River over to MS. It all depends on the motion over the next 2 days. A faster motion means more west in landfall...closer to Texas.

[ConvergenceZone]

Dr Jeff Masters pretty much sums it up with this quote in his update posted an hour ago:

"It's time to get familiar with the names Hanna, Josephine, Ike, and Kyle, because the tropical Atlantic is about to put on a rare burst of very high activity in the coming weeks."

Where are the other 3?

StormCenter, click on the link below. There's a graphic where Jeff points out where he thinks they are going to come from. A couple of the models are agressive with them as well

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

Back to Gustav, I think it will hold it's own over Jamaica.....I think it proved last night and this morning that it's not going to go anywhere....It made a believer out of me.

[Just Joshing You]

Well that BoC storm will be upgraded sometime in the next 24 hours I bet, so that will be Ike.

(not a forecast)

[soonertwister]

Power 106 in Kingston just got a report from the eastern part of the island, in the one particular village where the caller was located, all but three houses were unroofed, and the emergency shelter was partially unroofed with other areas safe to occupy.

Tropical storm?

[Windy]

Dr Jeff Masters pretty much sums it up with this quote in his update posted an hour ago:

"It's time to get familiar with the names Hanna, Josephine, Ike, and Kyle, because the tropical Atlantic is about to put on a rare burst of very high activity in the coming weeks."

Where are the other 3?

I dunno -- but I mean LOOK at the freakin' development map: