Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[northjaxpro]

I still think Southern Louisiana will see the changeover to snow by early this afternoon. But, it looks now that the accumulations will be near and along the I-20 corridor. This is where the cold air iis deeper. BigB and Cyclone Mike, I think Baton Rouge will likely see freezing rain and sleet with a changeover to snow by mid-late afternoon into this evening. The column of cold air appears more shallow across Baton Rouge, and moreso farther south along the coast. This is why icing will be more the story in these areas. can still at least get a inch or so snow acculation before the event ends. But, you could get up to about 1/2 inch ice accumulation as well.

The winter storm system is moving through a bit faster than I anticipated, so I see precipitation coming to and end across your area possibly as early as 12Z tomorrow, or slightly earlier than that.

[Countrygirl911]

Nothing but a lot of ice in sw mississippi no snow in sight yet

[windnrain]

UGH. THIS is why we shut down school in this weather. Pfluggerville in Texas did not, and look what happened. I want to just throw this at the faces of all the people mocking us for shutting down school.

[PTPatrick]

The latest nam seems to have the surface freezing line a little further south thru the day, just by a hair, but would make a Material difference in New Orleans and the I-10 corridor which is where it had it previously.

Nam still showing signs of more frontogenisis over the ms counties toward mobile and Baldwin county leaving higher precip, potentially an enhanced band of sleet or possibly even snow if the 850 line gets a little closer

[BigB0882]

So irresponsible.

One school in our area did not shut down on Friday and had kids stuck on school buses for a long time trying to figure out how to get them all home. This week they announced they are closed Tue Wed and Thur! They are the only district closed on Thur in the entire area. It sounds like they learned their lesson and are taking no chances this go round. lol

[WXfan212]

38/17 here atm with temps falling and getting mist/rain already here on the south shore of lake p here in LA seems like the old atmosphere is in good shape for a winter event

[timmeister]

Started out with freezing rain this morning in West Hattiesburg, just enough to give us 3 to 4 inch icicles hanging from the edge of the roof and a coating of ice on plants, shrubs and the back porch steps. The freezing rain then changed over to light sleet around 7 AM, and currently the sleet is coming down heavier.

[windnrain]

Looks very similar to what we had in BR on friday. However, we have a lot longer to go for this event.

[Janie2006]

Air temperature 33*F, dew point 8*F. WSR88-D indicating precipitation, but manual observation reveals that it is virga overhead at this point. Meanwhile, the primary precipitation shield looks to be not very far off to the northwest, with Hattiesburg already in on some winter precip.

[BigB0882]

Looks very similar to what we had in BR on friday. However, we have a lot longer to go for this event.

You think it will be longer? I could see this one being shorter just that it will be heavier precip so bigger totals overall. But I have no clue, you all did say it is building in further to the west than thought.

[HurriGuy]

The moisture is building up fast to the west over west and central Texas

Was not expecting it to be that far west at this time.

[windnrain]

Neither was the NWS. Texas is going to get a very significant event out of this. This bodes well for the overall strength of the system and precip totals for everyone, too. Longer line of training precip.

[Janie2006]

Tweet from KMOB:

"NWS Mobile ✔ @NWSMobile

First winter storm report. Freezing rain and sleet in Thomasville AL between 630 and 700 AM, resulting in a light glaze of ice on cars."

Thomasville is in Clarke county (I think).

[windnrain]

Looks very similar to what we had in BR on friday. However, we have a lot longer to go for this event.

You think it will be longer? I could see this one being shorter just that it will be heavier precip so bigger totals overall. But I have no clue, you all did say it is building in further to the west than thought.

I definitely don't think it will be longer, but what I meant was that we have longer to go and it already looks in Hattiesburg what it looked like in Baton Rouge, but the event is very early right now whereas it didn't get like that in BR until late. I think that the length of the system and additional moisture will bring us to high ends of the estimates, its clear that models AGAIN underestimated this storm. No model, to my knowledge, had precip all the way west in Austin and further, near Mexico.

[Kennethb]

For those of you in Baton Rouge, it appears that lower level clouds are developing suggesting that the lower atmosphere is moistening up more and more allowing more precipitation which is light rain with a little sleet to reach the surface.

[HurriGuy]

IMO…the ULL over mexico is still well intact and it appears to maybe slowed down a little overnight.

The big picture just seems good to have moisture lingering around for later when temps crash.

[Lane]

I work in Montgomery Alabama, we have ice glazing the cars here. Very light sprinkles at the moment. Just to my north about 10 miles (where I Live). Heavier precipitation is falling.

[cycloneye]

Saved radar loop.

[Ntxw]

^That is a lot of real estate in pink. Accidents and power problems, yikes.

[HurriGuy]

Is the overall band of moisture sinking too fast to the south? Or will it eventually bottom out and take its time exiting?

The gut feeling is still in me that we get nothing around BTR metro. Just an inch later on today would be a success.