Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[SunnyThoughts]

Cmon 00z GFS be the NAM, be one with the NAM lol

[PTrackerLA]

Just checked out the temperatures from the December 11 snow last year, day before and after. The currently progged low temps are nearly identical than those on 12/11/08 and the highs forecasted are much lower as well. It can happen!

[HarlequinBoy]

Was it last year that it snowed in NOLA?

Yes that was last year. It snowed in Houston, New Orleans, and I think there were a few spots with 8 inches in south Mississippi around Brookhaven.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Was it last year that it snowed in NOLA?

Yes it snowed about everywhere from Lake Charles to Slidell. The northshore and areas northwest of slidell got hammered. Believe they accumulated upwards of 7-8 inches locally. At my house (10 miles south of Baton Rouge) we had 3 inches on the ground.

Looking at those latest model maps if they verify, looks like we would be in the bullseye of the heaviest amounts. Getting pretty pumped up about this.

[SunnyThoughts]

I think Ivan is right, we probably won't know who will get what along the gulf coast until it actually happens. Good luck everybody! Hope everybody gets what they want where the white stuff is concerned!

[SunnyThoughts]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
410 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009



.AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
NOON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN WITH THIS FAST
MOVING LOW WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUGGEST THAT
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW FROM 3 AM FRIDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM SATURDAY
MORNING. DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
BELOW GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT...SO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED UNLESS A VERY NARROW PROLONGED BAND DEVELOPS. /22

[m_ru]

Pshh. I am 100% positive that not a darn thing will happen here. Mother nature always goes out of her way to disappoint me. I hate being a negative Nancy, but being a positive Polly has done nothing but bite me in the buttocks.

[attallaman]

Pshh. I am 100% positive that not a darn thing will happen here. Mother nature always goes out of her way to disappoint me. I hate being a negative Nancy, but being a positive Polly has done nothing but bite me in the buttocks.

According to the weather experts they seem to be saying that there's a very good chance that snow might possibly fall from the sky somewhere along our coastal region so just to be on the safe side should snow come to Gautier while you still have some time mosey on down to Piggly Wiggly and pick up a roll of Kodak Gold 110 film and oh don't forget to buy a flash bar either.

[attallaman]

This discussion from the NWS out of NOLA this morning:


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
549 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-032130-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...
LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...
RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...
METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...
VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...
GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...
YSCLOSKEY...CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...
CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...
WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...
OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
549 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD AIRMASS IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN ALL SNOW LINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND SUNSET FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM BAYOU SORREL TO HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT. THIS
INCLUDES THE BATON ROUGE METROPOLITAN AREA. A SNOW SLEET MIX
SHOULD EXIST ALONG A LINE FROM THIBODAUX TO SAUCIER MISSISSIPPI AT
MIDNIGHT INCLUDING THE NORTHSHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A RAIN
SLEET MIX SHOULD EXIST ALONG A LINE FROM HOUMA TO OCEAN SPRINGS
MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHSHORE AREA OF
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...GULFPORT AND BILOXI. ACCUMULATIONS OF
ANY WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NO GREATER
THAN ONE INCH WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THIBODAUX TO SAUCIER MISSISSIPPI.

THE LARGEST PROBLEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF PRECIPITATION FREEZING ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS BECOMING A TRAVEL
HAZARD. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY OR
EARLY FRIDAY.

[lrak]

My kids are praying for snow, is Corpus Christi in the race or should I break the news to the kiddos tonight and help them through their grief by setting up the Christmas tree tonight?

lrak aka karl

[SunnyThoughts]

I just caught a glimpse of the weather channel's graphics. Shows snow right up to the Fla/Ala line along the gulf coast.

[iorange55]

My kids are praying for snow, is Corpus Christi in the race or should I break the news to the kiddos tonight and help them through their grief by setting up the Christmas tree tonight?

lrak aka karl

It's certainly possible

NWS forecast

Friday: Rain before 3pm, then rain, possibly mixed with snow. High near 42. North northwest wind between 22 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before 9pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 33. North northwest wind 19 to 22 mph decreasing to between 10 and 13 mph. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

Wouldn't look for it too stick too much, unless you get a few heavy bands.

[m_ru]

I'm not buying it. I wont unless it unfolds right before my eyes. I did happen to charge my camera up yesterday...for completely unrelated reasons.

Even if we do get the precip, it will all be melted away before noon on Saturday.

[Brent]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
450 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

ALZ011>015-017>050-032200-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
450 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE FRIDAY THAT WILL LIKELY BRING MEASURABLE SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...AMOUNTS
OF UP TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20...59 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85...WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER TOTALS
IN ELEVATED AREAS IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...59 ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND ONE HALF INCH.
ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT DUE TO THE WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER FORECAST UPDATES.

$$

17/KLAWS

[SunnyThoughts]

Ivan, I see you out there. Do you think the fact that snow totals may be on the rise for the coastal counties of Texas...that will give us a better shot at something here? I guess IM asking, does the strength of the storm there, dictate the band or bands of snow which will fall further East. I know the temps have to be low enough too..just seems the stronger the storm to start with, the better chance of the snow LASTING longer as it pushes east and north.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, I see you out there. Do you think the fact that snow totals may be on the rise for the coastal counties of Texas...that will give us a better shot at something here? I guess IM asking, does the strength of the storm there, dictate the band or bands of snow which will fall further East. I know the temps have to be low enough too..just seems the stronger the storm to start with, the better chance of the snow LASTING longer as it pushes east and north.

Yeah. Our area is going to be right on that border line. Just go to the National weather service and click around. Molino Florida has a rain/sleet mix. The stronger the Gulf low is, the more precip and will draw down colder air.

It will start out as a cold rain Friday night but then change over early Saturday morning. What I find interesting is the warm bias the modesl have been. Today was supposed to be near 60 degrees but some area did not even get out of the upper 40s! Also the heavier it rains, that will bring down the temp as well. Should be very interesting around here!

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks Ivan, looking forward to it. Anticipation is half the fun, whether anything other than rain materializes or not.

[TideJoe]

Starting to look my area (Hattiesburg, MS) is going to get a least a dusting..... maybe more.

[Stormcenter]

To pick an area of where the snow (if there some) will be when you don't have the low yet and don't know how strong it will be is a crap shoot in my opinion. Just remember last December.

[Ivanhater]

To pick an area of where the snow (if there some) will be when you don't have the low yet and don't know how strong it will be is a crap shoot in my opinion. Just remember last December.

Lol, This will be a go outside and see if it's snowing event.

18z Nam brings the freezing line in a bit faster, about 60 miles further east in 36 hours.