Global model runs discussion

[gatorcane]

there is some monster wave that rolls off Africa in a couple of days that could be the real player to watch as far as landfall potential down the road. I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw this (also notice another Cape Verde system gearing up off Africa):

Granted we are still in the long-range and things will change:

[Frank2]

Hi Gatorcane,

Have you moved since last season?

True, after all of the troughiness we have been in an easterly flow since last week, so it does make things more "hurricane-friendly", for certain, though as in last season, too much ridging can mean systems will continue west, well to our south - we'll see...

Per the system now just south of the CV islands - it's already at 15N so it'll likely be a fishie, since it's developing so quickly (you'll need Java to see the below loop):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

so much for my "Perfect Season" thinking (but it was a nice while it lasted)...

Frank

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has system behind 99L hitting Miami! Is long range so take it from there.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Blown Away]

You can always count on the GFS to bring a giant apocalyptic hurricane into Miami at least once during every hurricane season.

[ronjon]

GFS has hurricane plowing into Miami at 360 hrs on the exact day as Andrew..August 24th..how ironic

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_360s.gif

[jinftl]

Yep, it is a tradition each season..to have the GFS show a Cat 5 pulling into miami at least once...maybe twice

Unless we are under 168 hours out.....i don't put much stock in those runs

:uarrow: You can always count on the GFS to bring a giant apocalyptic hurricane into Miami at least once during every hurricane season.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFS has hurricane plowing into Miami at 360 hrs on the exact day as Andrew..August 24th..how ironic

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_360s.gif

hope thats wrong

looks like katrina/rita type setup where it double hits someone in the gulf after that. not cool but its just a model

[cycloneye]

12z CMC has wave behind 99L moving WNW in Central Atlantic as a tropical storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET develops the wave behind 99L.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Macrocane]

I think that there will be development of at least 2 named storms on the next 2 weeks as the GFS has been predicting, but it's still too early to believe on the tracks. The GFS has been changing the track of a possible hurricane with every run, first it was Central America, then the Gulf and now Florida. We will have to keep an eye on the tropical waves coming off from Africa cause the threat exists for the folks that live in Florida-GOM and for us that live in Central America. Things are becoming interesting in the Atlantic but I hope that they will be only fish stoms but don't let our guards down.

[cycloneye]

The 12z EURO develops the wave behind 99L.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The 12z EURO develops the wave behind 99L.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

Too many models inline now something else were gonna have to watch

[jinftl]

agree, once you start to get consensus between models and model runs....the odds of 'something' being out there goes up

Latest Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability outlook from NOAA shows most of basin now in 'possible' and the area to the sw of the cape verde as 'fair'....most surface area that has been either of these thresholds season-to-date

The 12z EURO develops the wave behind 99L.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

Too many models inline now something else were gonna have to watch

[Meso]

348 hour GFS, after the two systems it's showing it develops another off Africa in 384 hours. Seems someone is turning on the switch.

[vacanechaser]

348 hour GFS, after the two systems it's showing it develops another off Africa in 384 hours. Seems someone is turning on the switch.

thats one hell of an image right there... but never never land.. although, very consistent about developing that wave..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vbhoutex]

348 hour GFS, after the two systems it's showing it develops another off Africa in 384 hours. Seems someone is turning on the switch.

thats one hell of an image right there... but never never land.. although, very consistent about developing that wave..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

It better be never never land!!!

[gatorcane]

yikes that is why I am a bit concerned about this wave behind 99L....

Good thing it is long-range and probably won't happen, I hope. Synoptics point at a west bound system across the Atlantic though.

[lonelymike]

The GFS.... You have better luck with the one eyed lady with the crystal ball next door

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The GFS.... You have better luck with the one eyed lady with the crystal ball next door

I dont know GFS on its own isnt too bad. When others agree like we are seeing thats when the GFS scenarios become believable.

[ROCK]

Where is the GFS run with NY city being smashed by a cat 5??? Usually the CMC does this every year but they worked out some bugs in it...to bad, that was always amusing....