Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[KWT]

Yep things look safe for the east coast. I guess all that worry in the preseason was just a bunch of nonsense. That trough looks super powerful and both storms will recurve well east of 60W. Although now I'm thinking all Cape Verde storms will recurve well east of the east coast, I'm still waiting to see if an actual storm forms.

All I'll say is Hugo my friend...Hugo...

Anyway at least for the 1st wave a recurve looking just about nailed on already but could well still end up with a pretty potent system, though the ECM is less agressive till the latter part of the run. I suspect this will be a hurricane down the line, maybe like Erin from 1989 funnily enough, who knows though!

[ConvergenceZone]

This year reminds me quite a bit like last year for some reason.....

[hurricaneCW]

Can you elaborate on Hugo and it's relevance to the current pattern? I know what Hugo did, but what does it have to do with the recurve pattern we're in.

[cycloneye]

KWT, you mentioned ERIN of 1989. GFS does almost that track maybe more east to threat the Azores as the 18z showed.

[KWT]

Can you elaborate on Hugo and it's relevance to the current pattern? I know what Hugo did, but what does it have to do with the recurve pattern we're in.

Every other system recurved before 60W pretty much, we had a few W.Gulf systems that year as well...all I was saying is that in 1989 most of the CV systems recurved way before even 60W as Erin did and many others...Hugo however managed to keep trooping westwards and the weakness only served to lift the system into the Carolinas...

I was just trying to show sometimes systems do sneak past...

[AtlanticWind]

It seems to me only the GFS is recurving the system , Nogaps ,Cmc ,Euro dont seem to recurve this so fast.

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps moves system SW and does not strenthen it much.

Here's the facts:

Nogaps, Cmc, and Euro do not strengthen it much and take the system wsw and MUCH further west than the Gfs.

Gfs is the only model thats really intensifies this system so quickly with recurvature near 40w. To its credits its been very consistent.


18Z nogaps Loop

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[hurricaneCW]

The gfs is probably way too fast in recurving it. I guess that's because of how quickly it develops it, but I feel that it won't develop quite as rapidly as the gfs suggests and that it will make it to 60W on the recurve. The 2nd system is all speculation at this point.

[KWT]

Yeah I do have to agree with that general idea Hurricanecw, I do think its a little quick in lifting it out but then again who knows really, much depends on how well it does develop.

I'm not putting much trust into the ECM until it stops producing a weak system in front of this wave which doesn't look like its going to happen...

[gatorcane]

I think the gfs is recurving too quickly. Other globals show it getting farther west before recurving.

Keep in mind the gfs is known to break down ridges too quickly especially the 18z and 06z runs which typically are run without as much data.

[Vortex]

12Z ukmet is also wsw and further S...


UKmet, Cmc, Nogaps, and Ecm all take this system w/wsw and even SW....

Only the GFS strengthen quickly with recurvature at 40W.

I'm not discounting the Gfs given how consistent is has been run to run but the other 4 globals have a different solution.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

well , after all the talking the wave is about to emerge. we will know the story soon enough.

[Hugo1989]

The system about to emerge from africa. What are your predictions guys?

[cycloneye]

The system about to emerge from africa. What are your predictions guys?

Lets see after it emerges what enviromental conditions it has to then start to organize. It can organize more quickly or more slower depending if those conditions help it or not. The track if it develops is still an enigma because despite the GFS sending it to the NW and north, other models are not too keen on that, so we have to wait and see how the ridges and troughs behave in the next few days.

[Hugo1989]

The system about to emerge from africa. What are your predictions guys?

Lets see after it emerges what enviromental conditions it has to then start to organize. It can organize more quickly or more slower depending if those conditions help it or not. The track if it develops is still an enigma because despite the GFS sending it to the NW and north, other models are not too keen on that, so we have to wait and see how the ridges and troughs behave in the next few days.

Do you believe that this system develops enough?

[cycloneye]

The system about to emerge from africa. What are your predictions guys?

Lets see after it emerges what enviromental conditions it has to then start to organize. It can organize more quickly or more slower depending if those conditions help it or not. The track if it develops is still an enigma because despite the GFS sending it to the NW and north, other models are not too keen on that, so we have to wait and see how the ridges and troughs behave in the next few days.

Do you believe that this system develops enough?

Conditions appear to be favorable for the wave to develop into a Tropical Storm or a hurricane.Again, it all depends on the enviromental conditions for it to be a formidable hurricane or to stay as a tropical storm or if it gets not ideal conditions, not develop at all. Lets watch how it all evolves in the nextfew days.

[cycloneye]

It looks like it will emerge tommorow afternoon or evening.

[BigA]

Comment1: Looks really good so far, for once I expect it not to poof.

Comment 2: It will be interesting to see the pressure changes in Dakar, Senegal during the next 24 hours.

Comment 3: The WRF also has the storm far to the south of the GFS. It's too early to say anything definitive about track.

[cycloneye]

If you look at the image above,it is already feeding from the water to the SW.

[ROCK]

If you look at the image above,it is already feeding from the water to the SW.

sure does and looks quite organized for something not even over water yet....You do have to take into account the dry air to the north of it though...might keep it in check rather than blow it up like the GFS....