ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Gustywind]

That's a bit south of the NHC official position 15,9 N and more to west 42,6 w than 41,6W again from the NHC 5 AM. Maybe the 4-5 days position could be adjust more west...

[KWT]

15.7N looks a slightly better position but either way its still south of 16N and now getting close to 45W...and the fact its not strengthening right now means this could be a real close shave with the islands from the looks of things if this trend continues.

Just need to hope it can gain some latitude between 50-60W!

[Gustywind]

Earl beginning to approach the Lesser Antilles...

[TheBurn]

[dexterlabio]

This is actually not my area, but the Atlantic has become more and more interesting for the past few days. Euro model shows Earl doing a recurve, but will be having a closer distance to the coast than Danielle.




I looked at the forecasts up to next week then I came up with this one:



Too early to tell if this is gonna happen but we shall see. This must be named Fiona, if I am not mistaken.

[KWT]

Great image theburn, you can see how poor Earl looks compared to the great Danielle!

Anyway got an upper high now to the north of this system so Earl will likely keep trucking near due west for the next couple of days so we need to watch closely for the islands, I still think its going to be pretty close.

[thetruesms]

Gosh that microwave presentation is a bit of a mess, still looks like Earl cxan't shift that linear look. Its certainly taking its time to strengthen at the moment, probably riding close to 16N still....

Time for people in the NE Caribbean Islands to take this one very seriously, its going to be a fairly close call, hopefully it jogs NE for you guys down there.

The strongest returns in the microwave image do look a mess, but you can still see the underlying structure in there. Bodes well/poorly (depending on your perspective, of course) for its future.

[supercane]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 271431
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010

...EARL CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 43.6W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT

[Evil Jeremy]

The Northern Antilles are now in the 3 day cone, and the NHC is giving them a 40%-50% chance of TS winds.

[HURAKAN]

The Leeward Islands need to keep an eye on Earl

[srainhoutx]

That they do Sandy...snip from the 11 AM Discussion...

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL
ESTABLISHED. ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES WEST...
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT AND THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

[KWT]

Clearly going to need watching for the islands, thats way too close to for comfort and any decent strengthening and a slower lift to the WNW/NW will bring this one right into the Leeward Islands...

Going to have to take this one really seriously, been a while since we've had a threat like this from the east...

[supercane]

Earl has failed to strengthen despite a favorable appearing upper air pattern with low shear on the SE periphery of an upper level anticyclone:

Map made in UW-CIMSS TCTrak with IR sat, obs, shear overlays.

[eastcoastFL]

This one is moving so fast to the west that I wont feel safe even here in florida until i see this thing heading NNW. The 3day cone is what we are supposed to focus on and its pointing straight at us.

[fd122]

I sure hope it recurves before reaching us in the islands. Weather is amazing here today though, flat calm seas and no wind.

[KWT]

Yeah lets hope so fd122...might well be a close call though there is good support for it to just skim off to the north, but you guys are in the cone right now so take it seriously!

Still not really strengthening too much right now but the models are still quite keen on it strengthening.

[eastcoastFL]

I sure hope it recurves before reaching us in the islands. Weather is amazing here today though, flat calm seas and no wind.

Possibly calm before the storm.

[Gustywind]

I sure hope it recurves before reaching us in the islands. Weather is amazing here today though, flat calm seas and no wind.

I tkink that we should continue to follow very seriously Earl, especially the Northern Leewards and even all the Leewards. But let's wait and see what could really happen. Stay tuned islanders.

[supercane]

Looking better on microwave than earlier:

[eastcoastFL]

Well I for one don't want a storm here in florida but at least things are getting interesting. I have a prego wife with a baby due in the next 2 months so no stress for her is key!