ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[SunnyThoughts]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 260242
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST...FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...BUT BERYL
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
BERYL SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES IN THE WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THESE TIDES MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING.
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL FORECAST
OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE PICTURES AS WELL AS REPORTS
FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST HAS
COALESCED INTO A TIGHT...WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. AROUND 2200
UTC...THE BUOY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ALONG WITH
PEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 37 KNOTS...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE
AROUND 1001 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
GENERALLY COOLED. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND
TAFB WERE A SUBTROPICAL ST2.5. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE FACT THAT
THE SYSTEM IS CENTERED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE...
THE LOW IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/08...THOUGH RECENT FIXES SUGGEST
THAT THE FORWARD SPEED MAY BE SLOWING. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS TEMPORARILY
LEAVING BERYL IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT BERYL WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
STEERED AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING BERYL INLAND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S IN
ABOUT 2 DAYS...WHERE IT SHOULD BRIEFLY STALL. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...ALL THE MODELS SHOW A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES IN
THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE BERYL TO TURN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME ACCELERATION...WITH THE CENTER LIKELY
EMERGING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE
MORE RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AND IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE PROXIMITY OF BERYL TO AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW MAY SLOW ITS
ABILITY TO TRANSITON TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MARGINALLY WARM WATERS
AND DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE COULD ALSO IMPEDE ITS
INTENSIFICATION...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE STORM. ONE POSITIVE FACTOR COULD BE
THE PASSAGE OF BERYL OVER WARM GULF STREAM WATERS WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE IT WITH A MOMENTARY BOOST. THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH
SHOWS ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING ONCE THE
CENTER MOVES INLAND.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 32.5N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 32.3N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 30.5N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 30.2N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL
72H 29/0000Z 30.5N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0000Z 31.2N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/0000Z 32.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[tallywx]

When was the last time we had watches or warnings issued for a portion of the contiguous U.S. coast in May?

[cycloneye]

[HurrMark]

When was the last time we had watches or warnings issued for a portion of the contiguous U.S. coast in May?

A week ago...with 'Alberto'...

[cycloneye]

[Evil Jeremy]

That TS warning extends further into Florida than I expected. I was thinking a TS watch at the most for anything south of Jacksonville, at least for the first advisory.

[CrazyC83]

Any chance this could reach hurricane intensity?

[cycloneye]

The big question will be,if Beryl will be more stronger than what NHC has on the first advisory?

36H 27/1200Z 30.5N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 30.2N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL
72H 29/0000Z 30.5N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

[Hurricaneman]

Any chance this could reach hurricane intensity?

I personally wouldn't rule it out, but as of this time its a 20% chance to me

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[jaxfladude]

Any chance this could reach hurricane intensity?

Good question...I hope not....I live in Jacksonville, Florida....will wait for the Pro-Mets for their thoughts and as always will take the official word from NHC.

[mf_dolphin]

The NHC doesn't call for a hurricane at this time. Have to wait to see and it develops.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The National Hurricane Center's basis for such a low predicted peak is that the system will stay subtropical long enough that it won't have much time to strengthen as a tropical storm; I don't believe it considering it is already a shallow warm-core.

[jinftl]

Watch the trend of this graphic with future advisories...looks like NHC puts the chance of this reaching hurricane status as very low. Shear, marginal SST, proximity to land/dry air not suggesting this is heading towards being a 'cane.

Any chance this could reach hurricane intensity?

Good question...I hope not....I live in Jacksonville, Florida....will wait for the Pro-Mets for their thoughts and as always will take the official word from NHC.

[Evil Jeremy]

Any chance this could reach hurricane intensity?

I personally wouldn't rule it out, but as of this time its a 20% chance to me

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

NHC gives this a 9% chance at being a hurricane in 36 and 48 hours, and that's the highest chance they give it at all currently.

[cycloneye]

Any chance this could reach hurricane intensity?

8% for being a hurricane.

[NDG]

Track will be interesting. I bet that since the ECMWF did so well in the same area with Alberto's track they will be leaning heavily with the ECMWF's track of landfall in NE FL.

Just as I thought:

THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE
MORE RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AND IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0243.shtml?

[cycloneye]

Loop of STS Beryl.

[ozonepete]

Nice, Luis. You can see the transition from STS to TS in action.

[cycloneye]

Off Topic= To remind the members who are on the S2K poll list and still have preliminary numbers and for those who still have not posted numbers,the formation of Alberto and Beryl count for the numbers in the poll. Poll closes on May 31rst ayt Midnight EDT so time is running out.

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