ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Microwave imagery indicates a center closer to 15N - but it really makes no difference at this point.

So that thing going WSW isn't the main low, just an eddy around a larger circulation or possibly a major decouple

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Theres really no such thing as a major decouple in a tropical wave, because most of the time one or both of the LLC and MLC are not very well established yet. If it isn't really moving south as a whole, what we likely saw was the dying convection and proto-MLC previously over the center falling south as it dissipated. I'm not sure if I agree with their current position, but then again with only nighttime "visible" to look at, its hard to tell where a low level center actually is. It looks like its further south to me, but its not really important. That said, how old is that microwave pass?

[gatorcane]

You can see the shear tendency with oranges out ahead of the system from the ULL...the map shows the change in shear where oranges mean it is on the increase, however, beyond that shear doesn't look that bad, especially west of 65W.

[SouthDadeFish]

Actually gatorcane, the colors in that map are the current levels of wind shear while the white and cyan contours are the shear change. In this case though, the orange area ahead of 94L is currently experiencing increased levels of shear in the past 24 hours. Not sure if that's what you meant.

[ouragans]

AL, 94, 2012082000, , BEST, 0, 151N, 406W, 25, 1010, DB

I'm going to completely disagree with best track here, this is closer to 14.5N

yeah Ive been staring at the loops trying to see something at 15.1N, but I just dont. Its hard to say for sure since its nighttime and were looking for low cloud elements, but the turning seems to centered somewhere around 14-14.5 N.

I do agree with you guys, and I think at 06z, they will change to a position a little bit to the south, between what we see now and the official 00z. My guess would be that they will take 2 positions to match what we see, because 94L is far from any land

[Blown Away]

TAFB 72 hour forecast position. If classified I think we will see a track similar to the TAFB.

[ROCK]

the last best track was 14.3N dropping down then now its back up to 15N?? I dont think its that high but hard to tell with a huge circulation that has not consolidated yet....

[SouthFLTropics]

What's your gut telling you Blown Away??? You think we are going to get a visitor up here on the Treasure Coast? The pattern seems to favor curving it up towards us if it is down near Jamaica. Could get interesting next week for sure!!!

SFT

[ROCK]

Just for kicks if this does get into the GOM, its not going to have a problem with ssts.....look at this potential...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[northjaxpro]

Just for kicks if this does get into the GOM, its not going to have a problem with ssts.....look at this potential... http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

That is always a major concern in regards to any potential of a tropical cyclone moving in to the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is just waiting on some system to move in and have conducive upper level conditions to take advantage of those bathwater ssts. Looking at the GFS runs this evening, the possibility appears to be increasing that what becomes of 94L may indeed get as far west as the Eastern GOM as it recurves. This is setting up to be an extremely interesting week to say the least watching these developments unfold.

__________________________

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

I dont think I have ever saw most of the GOM in dark blue....from the map that is a 880mb storm cat 5 with winds of 165mph+....the perfect hurricane ala Andrew.

[Gustywind]

805 PM TWD


000
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N38W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW AT
14N39W. THE WAVE/LOW IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 20 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AND CONCENTRATED NEAR
THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MAINLY S AND W OF THE SYSTEM FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 37W-42W...AND
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 40W-42W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

[Hurricaneman]

This probably will be a slow developer but I seem to remember a slow developer near the islands that became one of the top 10 costliest hurricanes and hit near Ft Myers as a borderline cat4\5 hurricane, I do believe now that this will take a similar track, but much weaker like maybe a borderline cat1\2 hurricane in 200 hrs which I may change my forecast as models and storm structure changes

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

805 PM TWD


000
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N38W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW AT
14N39W. THE WAVE/LOW IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 20 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AND CONCENTRATED NEAR
THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MAINLY S AND W OF THE SYSTEM FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 37W-42W...AND
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 40W-42W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

now they are pinning it at 14N? 20 knots is screaming....

[Cyclenall]

I dont think I have ever saw most of the GOM in dark blue....from the map that is a 880mb storm cat 5 with winds of 165mph+....the perfect hurricane ala Andrew.

I have many times, and this map is not as impressive as the GOM was in 2006 and 2005. Also if you want to see an insane amount of dark blue, try can find that product from October 1998 in which most of the basin was that colour.

[Blown Away]

What's your gut telling you Blown Away??? You think we are going to get a visitor up here on the Treasure Coast? The pattern seems to favor curving it up towards us if it is down near Jamaica. Could get interesting next week for sure!!!
SFT

If 94L is classified before 65W he will not make it past 83W. If 94L goes north of Hispaniola it becomes a 50/50 threat between SFL/Carolinas. IMO, this system has the most potential to be a hurricane threat to Florida of any system in years. JMHO of course.

[kungfut]

If you lived on st john or St thomas would you be concerned about this???

[Blown Away]

If you lived on st john or St thomas would you be concerned about this???

Heck ya, you need to pay attention to local weather forecast and NHC for sure!

[Stormlover2012]

hasnt even developed yet dont have concerns just yet

[Zanthe]

hasnt even developed yet dont have concerns just yet

Just because it hasn't developed doesn't mean you shouldn't be concerned with it. Just no need to really panic or anything. Just watch it close.

If you lived on st john or St thomas would you be concerned about this???

Yeah. Keep abreast of the situation, make sure your emergency kit is ready as with any tropical system. But, it hasn't formed yet, so no need to panic or get overly concerned.

[meriland23]

what do you think are the chances that this will become a hurricane/major maybe by landfall