ATL: Ex NINE

[SFLcane]

There is still a well defind llc down there lets what it does once over water.

[floridasun78]

look sat pic is down again i not getting last frame

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Nine, located near the borders
of southern Yucatan, Belize, and Guatemala, are expected to move
eastward across northern Belize tonight and into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea by Friday afternoon. This system has a small chance
of regeneration if it does not become absorbed by a cold front in
two or three days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[DESTRUCTION5]

If this is the same center from TD why did they rename and not keep as same low?

[ozonepete]

If this is the same center from TD why did they rename and not keep as same low?

Good question. I think because they declared it dead and revivals are not allowed.

[ozonepete]

the convective activity over the Yucatan is likely more related to the daily diurnal cycle than any influence the remnants of TD 9 could have

I'm not so sure about that Sandy. I've watched the Yucatan's daily diurnal sea breeze and afternoon convective activity every summer for years and this activity is definitely not sea breeze stuff - you can see that by where it popped: much further inland than the normal afternoon convection usually does with nothing along the shores where it usually starts. It looks more like it's being produced by lift from the low and mid level vorticity accompanying the remnant low. Also it has a circular banded look to it which is not normal for their afternoon convection.

[TheStormExpert]

Too many times have meteorologists turned a blind eye to a dead system just to have it turn around and bite them later (Katrina is a great example). While the GFS has backed off from the solution it was showing over the past few days, consider that wind shear across the West Caribbean will lessen as the troughing over the East United States lifts out (below 10kts in the days 4-5 period according to the SHIPS) and consider how warm the waters are and how deep the warm waters span in the West Caribbean. It's something to watch carefully, even if regeneration chances currently seem low.

Excellent discertation TA13. I agree with you with this post.

There should be PLENTY of dry air present in the GoM and Western Caribbean to prevent regeneration.

[SeGaBob]

I hope this reforms just to prove people wrong (not too strong though.) I'm tired of people being negative all the time.

For most its not being negative, its called being a realist. This was supposed to be the year of homebrews and have had absolutely nothing to even threaten besides Arthur.

I see your point, but I'd like to see what it does once it emerges over the NW Caribbean before saying it's through ...people are calling it done before it even has a chance. (I do respect wxman57's opinion though.)

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Too many times have meteorologists turned a blind eye to a dead system just to have it turn around and bite them later (Katrina is a great example). While the GFS has backed off from the solution it was showing over the past few days, consider that wind shear across the West Caribbean will lessen as the troughing over the East United States lifts out (below 10kts in the days 4-5 period according to the SHIPS) and consider how warm the waters are and how deep the warm waters span in the West Caribbean. It's something to watch carefully, even if regeneration chances currently seem low.

Excellent discertation TA13. I agree with you with this post.

There should be PLENTY of dry air present in the GoM and Western Caribbean to prevent regeneration.

The SHIPS keeps 700-500mb RH generally above 60% along 94L's path throughout the next 5 days, suggesting that dry air won't be a significant issue for the cyclone in the West Caribbean. I do agree that the Gulf should be very dry, but that's pretty irrelevant until the system moves in that direction.

[WPBWeather]

TheStormExpert"]

Too many times have meteorologists turned a blind eye to a dead system just to have it turn around and bite them later (Katrina is a great example). While the GFS has backed off from the solution it was showing over the past few days, consider that wind shear across the West Caribbean will lessen as the troughing over the East United States lifts out (below 10kts in the days 4-5 period according to the SHIPS) and consider how warm the waters are and how deep the warm waters span in the West Caribbean. It's something to watch carefully, even if regeneration chances currently seem low.

Excellent discertation TA13. I agree with you with this post.

There should be PLENTY of dry air present in the GoM and Western Caribbean to prevent regeneration.[/quote]
The SHIPS keeps 700-500mb RH generally above 60% along 94L's path throughout the next 5 days, suggesting that dry air won't be a significant issue for the cyclone in the West Caribbean. I do agree that the Gulf should be very dry, but that's pretty irrelevant until the system moves in that direction.[/quote]


Don't confuse this thread with facts and data!!

[TheStormExpert]

Doesn't the SHIPS model do horrendous when it comes to predicting dry air? Both this season and last it would blow up every TW/Invest that rolled off Africa into the SAL and dry air.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

:uarrow: Doesn't the SHIPS model do horrendous when it comes to predicting dry air? Both this season and last it would blow up every TW/Invest that rolled off Africa into the SAL and dry air.

SAL and dry air are not interchangeable terms. All SAL is dry, but not all dry air is dusty.

But yes, the SHIPS is unable to pick up on dust aerosols, which is why it's often bullish with East Atlantic systems embedded within dusty environments.

[HurriGuy]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

The troughs lifting out taking the small piece of subtropical convective activity with it. Environment trying to become a little more suitable. 94L gets little more isolated and stays south enough away from the massive plume of dry air entering the Gulf then, I could see it trying to revamp.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

Look at the sheer tendency and notice a much better area of relaxed winds to help it out if it can get going.

[gatorcane]

Saved image loop below with convection building right on top of where the remnant low would be at. There is more convection now than when it was over water!

[cycloneye]

Text of 00z Best Track:

At 0000 UTC, 24 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 17.9°N and 89.4°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 105 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.

[gatorcane]

00Z 850MB vorticity graphic showing a decent vorticity still. Best track showing a more ESE movement instead of SE with pressure maintaining.

[HurriGuy]

How do you short loops straight to your post? Like not having to copy and paste the URL and then manually click on it in the post?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

TheStormExpert"]

Too many times have meteorologists turned a blind eye to a dead system just to have it turn around and bite them later (Katrina is a great example). While the GFS has backed off from the solution it was showing over the past few days, consider that wind shear across the West Caribbean will lessen as the troughing over the East United States lifts out (below 10kts in the days 4-5 period according to the SHIPS) and consider how warm the waters are and how deep the warm waters span in the West Caribbean. It's something to watch carefully, even if regeneration chances currently seem low.

Excellent discertation TA13. I agree with you with this post.

There should be PLENTY of dry air present in the GoM and Western Caribbean to prevent regeneration.

The SHIPS keeps 700-500mb RH generally above 60% along 94L's path throughout the next 5 days, suggesting that dry air won't be a significant issue for the cyclone in the West Caribbean. I do agree that the Gulf should be very dry, but that's pretty irrelevant until the system moves in that direction.[/quote]


Don't confuse this thread with facts and data!![/quote]


?? I am a little confused. Your point is?

[WPBWeather]

"]Too many times have meteorologists turned a blind eye to a dead system just to have it turn around and bite them later (Katrina is a great example). While the GFS has backed off from the solution it was showing over the past few days, consider that wind shear across the West Caribbean will lessen as the troughing over the East United States lifts out (below 10kts in the days 4-5 period according to the SHIPS) and consider how warm the waters are and how deep the warm waters span in the West Caribbean. It's something to watch carefully, even if regeneration chances currently seem low.[/quote]

Excellent discertation TA13. I agree with you with this post.[/quote]
There should be PLENTY of dry air present in the GoM and Western Caribbean to prevent regeneration.[/quote]
The SHIPS keeps 700-500mb RH generally above 60% along 94L's path throughout the next 5 days, suggesting that dry air won't be a significant issue for the cyclone in the West Caribbean. I do agree that the Gulf should be very dry, but that's pretty irrelevant until the system moves in that direction.[/quote]


Don't confuse this thread with facts and data!![/quote]


?? I am a little confused. Your point is?[/quote]
The point is that it's refreshing to see pronouncements backed up with something other than hubris.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

"]Too many times have meteorologists turned a blind eye to a dead system just to have it turn around and bite them later (Katrina is a great example). While the GFS has backed off from the solution it was showing over the past few days, consider that wind shear across the West Caribbean will lessen as the troughing over the East United States lifts out (below 10kts in the days 4-5 period according to the SHIPS) and consider how warm the waters are and how deep the warm waters span in the West Caribbean. It's something to watch carefully, even if regeneration chances currently seem low.

Excellent discertation TA13. I agree with you with this post.[/quote]
There should be PLENTY of dry air present in the GoM and Western Caribbean to prevent regeneration.[/quote]
The SHIPS keeps 700-500mb RH generally above 60% along 94L's path throughout the next 5 days, suggesting that dry air won't be a significant issue for the cyclone in the West Caribbean. I do agree that the Gulf should be very dry, but that's pretty irrelevant until the system moves in that direction.[/quote]


Don't confuse this thread with facts and data!![/quote]


?? I am a little confused. Your point is?[/quote]
The point is that it's refreshing to see pronouncements backed up with something other than hubris.[/quote]

Thank you was not clear what you were getting at and do agree with you.