ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

Satellite loops indicate Jerry may be moving NW or even WNW on the NE side of an upper low vs the NNW prog for at least the time being. If so, he's likely moving west of the NHC track and just about all models. If this continues much longer, he MAY get into a position where the risk of getting left behind increases. If so, what might this mean for both Jerry and Karen??

[aperson]

the further west jerry gets the more it gets utterly decapitated by shear along that dry line. at this rate I think jerry may dissipate early and leave a moist, low shear environment for karen.

[Stormi]

Feed for future feeder-bands

[Nuno]

Might not be a whole lot left for Karen to interact with.

[NDG]

Jerry looks like an extra tropical system this morning, at least subtropical.

[cycloneye]

NDG,you nailed the Subtropical thing.

TXNT23 KNES 241158
TCSNTL

A. 10L (JERRY)

B. 24/1146Z

C. 30.6N

D. 69.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. SUBTROPICAL

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS TAKEN ON SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH AN
EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER AND BANDS OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED, BUT CONSISTS OF
MULITPLE VORTICES ROTATING WITHIN A LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. THIS WILL
BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS SATELLITE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME PURELY TROPICAL IN NATURE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[chris_fit]

Looks to be drifting south? Am I seeing that right?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[LarryWx]

Looks to be drifting south? Am I seeing that right?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

I think his LLC is pretty much quasi-stationary.

[plasticup]

http://i.imgur.com/98gtyLgh.mp4

[Jr0d]

I was not expecting Jerry to start moving NE until later today, it appears he may be starting to wobble that way with the latest visible satellite.

Now if Jerry is still around the same area around at midnight then that will through a monkey wrench into what is already becoming a complex forecasting situation.

[supercane4867]

Looks like it's completely subtropical or post-tropical right now

[Kazmit]

Definitely feels tropical here in Bermuda. Sustained winds are near 30mph and it's very humid.

[wx98]

...JERRY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...
5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24
Location: 31.1°N 69.0°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[TallyTracker]

If Jerry doesn’t redevelop convection near the center soon, I’d be considering designating the system either post-tropical or a remnant low.

[wx98]

If Jerry doesn’t redevelop convection near the center soon, I’d be considering designating the system either post-tropical or a remnant low.

NHC admitted this morning that it transitioned to subtropical, so I would think they’ll make that change post-season. But yes, trop or sub-trop, it’s looking more post-trop now...

[Highteeld]

If Jerry doesn’t redevelop convection near the center soon, I’d be considering designating the system either post-tropical or a remnant low.

NHC admitted this morning that it transitioned to subtropical, so I would think they’ll make that change post-season. But yes, trop or sub-trop, it’s looking more post-trop now...

Now they are claiming it's neither LOL

Jerry no longer looks like either a tropical or a subtropical
cyclone, since it lacks deep convection within a couple of hundred
miles of the center.

[wx98]

Recon suggests this isn’t even at TS strength anymore. The data could maybe make a case for 35 kt, but it really should be at least downgraded to a depression at this point. Better yet, post-tropical remnant low...

[wx98]

They went with 40 kts since the plane hasn’t sampled the whole system, but I’d say that’s a little high

...AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE WEAKER...
11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24
Location: 31.4°N 68.7°W
Moving: NNE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

[EquusStorm]

Not a trace of convection. Unless D-max pulls off something wild, probably only got an advisory or two to go. That happened a lot quicker than I thought.

[wx98]

He is gone

...JERRY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25
Location: 31.8°N 67.9°W
Moving: NE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph