ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Aric Dunn]

interestingly.. the 12z ICON almost develops something in the NW carrib.. lol


something to keep an eye on for sure now..

[davidiowx]

interestingly.. the 12z ICON almost develops something in the NW carrib.. lol


something to keep an eye on for sure now..

I recall the GFS showing this about 4 or so days ago. At that time it looked like back to back systems but maybe it was catching on to something? Time will tell.

[TheProfessor]

12z GFS showing a westward bend as well, an interesting trend in the 12z models.

[gatorcane]

Doesn’t even look tropical when it landfalls in LA as shown by 12Z GFS simulation. All the rainfall and any winds are hundreds of miles east of landfall over Florida:

[MississippiWx]

Doesn’t even look tropical when it landfalls in LA as shown by 12Z GFS simulation. All the rainfall and any winds are hundreds of miles east of landfall over Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/dQxNBKcN/gfs-ir-watl-14.png

I think the Northern Gulf Coast leads the world in being dry slotted on the east side of tropical cyclones. It happens every year. We desperately need the rain in South Ms, La, AL, and in the Panhandle of FL. I’m not so sure that Cristobal is going to be what we need it to be.

[Aric Dunn]

Really GFS.. bringing Christobal back over the gulf after a loop over the southern US... lol

[aspen]

Really GFS.. bringing Christobal back over the gulf after a loop over the southern US... lol

No, we’re not having this gyre system die and regenerate enough times to get Edouard by mid-June. Not happening.

[Stormcenter]

GFS is out to lunch IMO

[Steve]

Here's the 12 QPF. 2.5-5" of rain across the immediate Gulf Coast from the Keys up to the LA/TX border. Not extreme, but you know there will likely be some higher totals.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1591289013

Here's the current MJO. According to the CPC, MJO should reach Phase 2 sometime tomorrow. Phase 2 is a very strong signal for the NC Gulf, probably the strongest one of all for something to come toward LA/MS or possibly Texas. Most of the models don't show deep amplification except possibly the JMA. So a couple days in 2 and then we'll see where it goes from there.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

so far this GFS run.. we see Dolly, Fay, and possibly Edouard and the next after that lol ..

[Steve]

CMC slides east and makes landfall around Lake Pontchartrain Northshore (Slidell +/-) with the severe rains of a foot+ around Panama City, Tallahassee and points east.

HWRF goes in around Vermilion Bay @ 998mb Sunday afternoon.

HMON goes in a little farther east around Cocodrie at 998mb Sunday evening.

HWRF-P goes in Vermilion Bay at 995mb Sunday evening.

Waiting on the Euro and the GFS/EC Ensembles a bit later. Euro is out to 24 hours and has Chrisobal near the tip of the Yucatan tomorrow morning.

[PTrackerLA]

CMC slides east and makes landfall around Lake Pontchartrain Northshore (Slidell +/-) with the severe rains of a foot+ around Panama City, Tallahassee and points east.

HWRF goes in around Vermilion Bay @ 998mb Sunday afternoon.

HMON goes in a little farther east around Cocodrie at 998mb Sunday evening.

HWRF-P goes in Vermilion Bay at 995mb Sunday evening.

Waiting on the Euro and the GFS/EC Ensembles a bit later. Euro is out to 24 hours and has Chrisobal near the tip of the Yucatan tomorrow morning.

12z Euro comes offshore a bit west of the 00z out to 24 and 48 hours

[Steve]

EC out to 48 hours and looks stronger than any other model at that point (994mb). 22.1 / 92.1. Since it's the EC, you have to give it a little weight regardless of whether it's right or not.

[tolakram]

Let's hope it doesn't get trapped or this will be yet another nasty flooding event.

[Cpv17]

Big west shift on the 12z Euro. Pretty close to the LA/TX border.

[bella_may]

Flooding to the east of the center (all the way to the FL panhandle) is gonna be the biggest problem with this storm imo

[Steve]

Big west shift on the 12z Euro. Pretty close to the LA/TX border.

It shows Landfall at 990mb (strong tropical storm or slightly possible low-end Cat 1) Monday am near Vermilion Bay. So it's about 12 hours slower than the Hurricane Models but landfalls near where the HWRF and HWRF-P have it.

[Cpv17]

Big west shift on the 12z Euro. Pretty close to the LA/TX border.

It shows Landfall at 990mb (strong tropical storm or slightly possible low-end Cat 1) Monday am near Vermilion Bay. So it's about 12 hours slower than the Hurricane Models but landfalls near where the HWRF and HWRF-P have it.

I’ve heard rumblings about the slower it moves, the more west it’ll go.

[Steve]

GEFS ensembles focus around the LA/TX border.

GEPS ensembles focus around Grand Isle.

[NDG]

Just like on its previous 06z run, the Euro is forecasting a stronger ridge to its north.