ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#501 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:08 am

wxman57 wrote:
KWT wrote:Looking very Alpha at the moment it has to be said...

Also, worth noting we are a MONTH ahead of 2005...let that sink in for a moment!


Naming criteria have changed significantly since 2005. Some of this year's storms may not have qualified in 2005. 2020 is NO 2005. Lots of weak, short-lived storms.

Wasn’t the 1991 Perfect Storm similar to Alpha in terms of banding?
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#502 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Sep 19, 2020 4:23 am

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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#503 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:31 am

I have been waiting for this data.
Even though AMSU sounder could only capture half of it, it shows that Beta is a very very deep cold-pool shear-driven Tropical Cyclone.
Very much like Sally but even deeper.
It can sustain itself with pulsing hot towers.
Last hot tower showed a very large warm-core feature.
Appears to have enough energy, from the large CAPE pool, that sits off of Houston, to fire large towers.

There has been an interaction of the Rossby Wave with the LL vort.
The Rossby Wave created a high altitude vort that dropped to mid levels, aka 355K PV Anomaly.
Somewhat like a funnel cloud.
CIMSS 500mb shows this clearly.

Once the Rossby wave retreats, it is likely in my opinion, that the PVA will break off and stack with the LL vort.
High-helicity hot towers would facilitate the stacking.
If this indeed evolves as such, we could see a very quick intensification to a classical warm-core TC.
How it plays out from there depends on LL infeeds including sustained WISHE from the water and high TPW feeds.
Also depends on UL conditions and shear.
A classic warm-core is susceptible to shear.
But, if the deep cold pool is maintained, it may be able to push shear out of the way.

Need to see how this all evolves.
A big part of this is at the mesoscale level which the global models can't deal with.
Stay tuned.

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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#504 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:34 am

Appears shear is already beginning to drop.
Any new high-helicity hot tower could already begin the process of aligning the UL vort with the LL vort.

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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#505 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:37 am

Already has a large amount of helicity at the mesoscale level.
Stacking is very likely.

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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#506 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:47 am

Best chance for intensification is likely this afternoon as diurnal pressures drop.

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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#507 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:56 am

Recon on the way
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#508 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:07 am

Wow, I wasn't expecting such a high rain rate.
No wonder the big warm-core feature.

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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#509 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:09 am

Strong feeder band appears to be developing

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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#510 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:12 am

Recon dropping down
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#511 Postby xironman » Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:24 am

Lots of lightning in the feeder band.

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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#512 Postby xironman » Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:37 am

Not expecting this

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 992.7 mb (29.32 inHg)
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#513 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:42 am

Max winds look like 40-45 kts NE sector. Fits obs in the area. Center exposed SW of convection.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#514 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:48 am

Center dropsonde reported 995 mb with 7 kt winds.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#515 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:50 am

Eye drop

995 mb

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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#516 Postby underthwx » Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:57 am

wxman57 wrote:Max winds look like 40-45 kts NE sector. Fits obs in the area. Center exposed SW of convection.


Good morning Wxman....im down in brazoria county...based on the information you have...Can you offer your assessment on Beta?...I looked at the the latest from the NHC...I understand that a lot of the gulf coast is potentially at risk...I'm not asking for a psychic reading from you...I respect your expertise...I appreciate any input from you...thanks
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#517 Postby SETXstorms » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:02 am

This storm is too much hype, most of the moisture is going to stay offshore. The track and movement are key here.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#518 Postby Visioen » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:06 am

Central convection gone, all energy going to that band in the east now.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#519 Postby davidiowx » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:12 am

SETXstorms wrote:This storm is too much hype, most of the moisture is going to stay offshore. The track and movement are key here.


I wouldn’t say it’s to much hype yet.. it’s still got days over water and the shear will subside. GCANE made some good points above.
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Re: ATL: BETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#520 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:22 am

Dealing with some mid-level dry air at this time.
Will probably take a day to wash out.
Also not seeing any deep TPW feeds like from the EPAC.
I think this is the limiting factor for the next 24 hrs.

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