ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve H.]

Yes, lower pressures are starting to concern me. And the stores in south brevard are going to get busy. Somewhat reminiscent of Jeanne, but she was 960mb (approximately). Had damage from her.

[NDG]

Pressures have lowered but its gradients hasn't tightened up yet, at least on the western quadrant.

[jlauderdal]

More north the track now near Melbourne.

https://i.imgur.com/FfgBWZx.jpg

Weird how the NHC's track is so far north of the GFS and Euro, I guess they are splitting the difference between them and the UKMET which is way north in New Smyrna Beach, the TVCN is north of Melbourne.

I knew somehow the SFL shield would hold up. It’s really unbelievable to see every time. We should see minimal impacts here down here.

It wasn't looking good for you last night, looking like another SE Florida miss, lets see how the next model cycle goes.

[kevin]

Pressure down to 990.9 mb extrapolated.

[NDG]

I spoke too soon, pressure continues to drop and stronger winds found near its center.

655
URNT15 KWBC 081047
NOAA3 0617A NICOLE HDOB 13 20221108
103730 2741N 07227W 6954 03106 9976 +095 +046 005027 028 031 001 00
103800 2741N 07225W 6954 03103 9975 +093 +066 006025 027 034 001 00
103830 2741N 07223W 6955 03100 9969 +096 +063 009023 027 032 000 00
103900 2741N 07220W 6957 03098 9966 +098 +054 006017 022 033 000 00
103930 2741N 07218W 6955 03100 9961 +102 +053 005016 017 033 000 00
104000 2741N 07216W 6955 03098 9957 +104 +060 005018 020 031 000 00
104030 2741N 07213W 6956 03096 9953 +107 +058 355017 017 032 000 00
104100 2741N 07211W 6953 03097 9948 +107 +070 351019 021 038 000 00
104130 2741N 07209W 6960 03089 9946 +107 +081 348020 021 038 000 00
104200 2741N 07206W 6955 03092 9940 +111 +072 348017 021 035 001 00
104230 2741N 07204W 6956 03090 9944 +107 +065 335012 013 035 001 00
104300 2741N 07201W 6957 03087 9938 +110 +078 349012 013 034 000 00
104330 2741N 07159W 6951 03088 9933 +110 +095 359011 014 034 006 00
104400 2741N 07157W 6951 03090 9920 +121 +082 078003 008 036 003 00
104430 2741N 07155W 6953 03091 9915 +130 +060 155009 011 032 001 03
104500 2739N 07156W 6952 03089 9909 +131 +068 117002 007 031 001 00
104530 2737N 07157W 6954 03089 9909 +132 +083 287017 023 031 001 03
104600 2735N 07156W 6954 03090 9910 +136 +054 270024 026 /// /// 03
104630 2735N 07153W 6951 03097 9911 +135 +047 258018 024 015 000 00
104700 2735N 07151W 6952 03094 9922 +126 +058 239013 015 013 000 00

[NDG]

Looks like a tight LLC, just south of the convection.

[Steve H.]

She’s looking healthier. Wonder if they’re going to evacuate the beaches

[NDG]

Eastern Quadrant is fairly weak.

URNT15 KWBC 081057
NOAA3 0617A NICOLE HDOB 14 20221108
104730 2735N 07148W 6953 03095 9926 +124 +065 224012 013 011 000 00
104800 2735N 07146W 6953 03096 9929 +122 +070 198017 020 011 000 00
104830 2735N 07144W 6951 03099 9928 +127 +039 197018 020 018 000 00
104900 2735N 07141W 6952 03102 9931 +127 +038 202016 016 019 000 00
104930 2735N 07139W 6951 03103 9936 +124 +039 201018 019 020 000 00
105000 2735N 07136W 6951 03104 9942 +119 +049 196018 019 020 000 00
105030 2735N 07134W 6953 03104 9949 +114 +055 195019 019 019 000 00
105100 2735N 07132W 6952 03107 9953 +112 +056 195017 018 019 000 00
105130 2735N 07129W 6953 03106 9953 +113 +055 198017 017 021 000 00
105200 2735N 07127W 6951 03109 9954 +112 +056 193017 018 020 000 00
105230 2735N 07125W 6951 03110 9953 +114 +055 191018 019 019 000 00
105300 2735N 07122W 6951 03112 9956 +112 +057 186019 020 022 000 00
105330 2735N 07120W 6952 03111 9963 +107 +060 183020 020 023 000 00
105400 2735N 07117W 6954 03110 9969 +105 +064 182020 020 019 000 00
105430 2735N 07115W 6952 03115 9973 +101 +066 183017 019 018 000 00
105500 2735N 07113W 6951 03116 9975 +101 +070 178017 017 018 000 00
105530 2735N 07110W 6952 03116 9978 +098 +072 183018 019 018 000 00
105600 2735N 07108W 6952 03117 9981 +097 +073 189019 019 019 000 00
105630 2735N 07106W 6951 03118 9982 +096 +080 179020 020 020 000 00
105700 2735N 07103W 6954 03116 9981 +098 +077 176020 021 019 000 00

[shannalynn35]

She’s looking healthier. Wonder if they’re going to evacuate the beaches

I live on the west coast in Bradenton 5 miles to the beach but I work on the island and I know they do not evacuate unless it’s a Cat 3 or more.

[Steve H.]

Yes, I haven’t heard anything about an evacuation. I’m in satellite beach

[NDG]

Dropsonde missed the center so the pressure is probably more like 992-993mb.

[GCANE]

Last four runs of GFS is trending for a stronger Nicole at landfall.
06Z has 980mb

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1589940540799582208

[GCANE]

This maybe more a disaster for New England / Upper East Coast than for FL.

[GCANE]

This maybe more a disaster for New England / Upper East Coast than for FL.

Each run of Euro has the Great Lakes low moving more east.
Nicole and the low may phase.
Storm-of-the-century scenario?

[NDG]

This maybe more a disaster for New England / Upper East Coast than for FL.

How?
It should be an extra-tropical system by the time it gets up there.

It think is nonsense to say that. IMO.

[NDG]

Very warm Gulf Stream Current on the path of Nicole.

[GCANE]

From CIMSS, vorts thru 500mb are looking a lot better.
Nicole is shaking off the UL Low and associated PV Streamer is nearly gone.
The stacking started yesterday afternoon as I noted by the cloud-tops temps cooling down and the swirl making a CCW rotation.
The eye drop from recon shows a somewhat dry core at 69% RH @ 850mb.
Once this starts to moisten up, Nicole should be a full TS.

[GCANE]

This maybe more a disaster for New England / Upper East Coast than for FL.

How?
It should be an extra-tropical system by the time it gets up there.

It think is nonsense to say that. IMO.

Euro has it at 985mb in New England
991mb in FL

[NDG]

First visible pic, X is where the recon found the LLC.