2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

I am beginning to question my decision to pass on purchasing trip insurance for my upcoming Bahamas cruise, approx. 2 weeks from now Prior to now, I have been feeling fairly confident that our present "background state" would not evolve quickly enough to present a suddenly favorable "foreground state". Ah yes, but here we are once again. Facing that proverbial light-switch or ringing of the bell. Last year proved that climatology alone does not dictate the event. With the broad spread of models seemingly waking from their long slumber, common sense suggests that the sleeping bear is about to waken. Whether that amounts to one or two additional moderate to strong tropical storms by mid-month, or seeing our 1st hurricane to develop for the year, this remains to be seen. It is however these subtle shifts in each new days' model ensemble & operational forecasts that fascinate me so much. Guaging the change and the speed (timing) in which the various models increase or back off forecasted areas of development as well as change in their forecast intensities. It's easy to get caught up in the noise regarding any one specific model forecasting Armageddon somewhere, or about individual model track recurve tendencies. Looks to me like we've finally arrived to a point in this season where models start providing hints of changing conditions within certain areas of the basin. That was not the case last year at this time.

[BobHarlem]

Still nothing consistent on the operational globals, but the 0z Euro shows a hurricane dangerously close to Bermuda on the 13th, and another system in the Caribbean forming shortly after. The Euro AI is back to putting a hurricane into south Florida on the 15th and into the Gulf/Mississippi. (Just a week later than the last time it was doing that -- It's going to get reputation for doing so) Long range is just wildly.

Most of the models are having a difficult time on what to do with the energy off the Carolinas also. (including GFS)

Although it does appear late august is more likely for a us landfall than usual if something actually develops, the longer range has been lacking any consistency on most of the models for any particular system. I'd be concerned if anything actually persisted for more than 24 hours or had multiple models going for it. (Ensembles are having the same issue)

Highlights (Again no consistancy):
0z Euro showing something near Bermuda:


0z Euro showing this in the West Caribbean


0z Euro AI wanting South Florida... again:


0z Euro AI then heading to Mississippi


Not shown:
The general confusion on what to do with the area off the Carolinas by GFS/UK/CMC and Euro.
GFS and CMC don''t show anything close to what the euros do, although there's a few ensembles on them, just not enough to take seriously. The ensembles showcases uncertainty with the stuff of the Carolinas more than anything else.
Euro ensembles are more a concern later, but the mismatch against the GFS ones in the MDR makes it not specific enough to pinpoint anything. (Euro does a few things off the Carolinas too, but the operational models don't seem to like it)

One thing I picked up on though, we definitely have a potential for multiple storms going at once around 2 1/2 - 3 weeks into August, just difficult to say where at.

6z GFS shows this too kinda. Gulf area for the wave NE of the Caribbean, area off Southeast, area north of Bermuda, and a bigger one well east into the Atlantic all at once. Subtle hints things just may suddenly pick up.

[ronjon]

The 00z Euro-AI does have some support from the Euro ensembles. Think at this long range tracks are pretty meaningless but overall the models are suggesting a major pickup in tropical cyclogenesis as we enter mid August.

[jlauderdal]

The 00z Euro-AI does have some support from the Euro ensembles. Think at this long range tracks are pretty meaningless but overall the models are suggesting a major pickup in tropical cyclogenesis as we enter mid August.

When the GFS hits South Florida, the season will officially start. It has euro ai support,

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

[Javlin]

The Euro AI is back to putting a hurricane into south Florida on the 15th and into the Gulf/Mississippi. (Just a week later than the last time it was doing that -- It's going to get reputation for doing so) Long range is just wildly.

I really do not buy per say esp. being AI?I think AI uses pass history does it not?just being Camille's anniversary date is suspect.I know for us here along the coast August and the first 15 days of September are our peak the AI feels a little like climo.

[ChrisH-UK]

Google AI Weather Lab has a hurricane out in the atlantic. Now the model is trained itself using pat historical models and has had a pretty good forecast of track and intensity going to be intresting to compare this model and the likes of global and hurricane models this season.



National Tropical Weather Conferance : Google Deep Mind Weather Lab

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1951636170867159315

[LarryWx]

12z UK: 3rd run in row w/MDR TD moving WNW

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.8N 41.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.08.2025 120 14.4N 43.3W 1009 28
0000UTC 08.08.2025 132 16.2N 46.1W 1009 29
1200UTC 08.08.2025 144 17.6N 49.2W 1010 28
0000UTC 09.08.2025 156 19.7N 52.0W 1011 28
1200UTC 09.08.2025 168 21.2N 55.3W 1011 34

[TomballEd]

I posted a loop of the Carolinas lemon in that thread. That thing is close to closing off a low. Not much suggesting a strong system or a land impact but I think it is breaking off from the trough that spawned it.

Strong hints on the ensembles (and I consider a 15 day run of the op as just another ensemble) The Atlantic MDR one seems most favored. But seeing seeing support for a Caribbean/Gulf system coming from the wave ahead of and behind the most favored wave. Euro 2 storms simultaneously and GFS developing system approaching Florida at ensemble range time suggests a switch does flip in about two weeks for systems of tropical origin.

[Steve]

12z AI hits around boothville with a nw heading in 2 weeks.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=348

[Steve]

Climate model
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ncfs.shtml

And bias-corrected Australian
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... bomm.shtml

are the only MJO models lined up for that timeframe.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro develops the wave off africa, that curves north early and almost slams the Azores (euro actually looks like it does a hard sidestep on them, it's kinda odd). 12z Euro AI still going for S. Florida and gets deep into the Gulf (no landfall before the end of the run this time). GFS showing the system off NC basically right now, but backed off the Gulf idea from 6z, but also shows a strong wave in the Bahamas at the end of the run. Long range numericals have been inconsistent, although the Euro AI again really really likes south Florida.

[TomballEd]

12z AI hits around boothville with a nw heading in 2 weeks.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=348

Has there been an EC Florida to Central Gulf hurricane since 2005? Again, 2 weeks out and a fairly new model that essentially bias corrects the physics based model, this is all just possible outcomes. Once difference between the Andrew and Katrina storms, the AI doesn't get that strong in the Gulf. AI shear has a roaring outflow jet to the N. Do any of the PPV AI models show mid level humidity or PWAT? I know it is forever out, I am just curious why a system under an anticyclone over 31 degree water isn't bombing out.

[BobHarlem]

12z AI hits around boothville with a nw heading in 2 weeks.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=348

Has there been an EC Florida to Central Gulf hurricane since 2005?

Nicole (2022) was the last one (although it was barely in the Gulf for a bit) Ian was the big show that year, but Nicole did aggravate the beach erosion in South Daytona/Daytona Beach Shores and New Smyrna Beach.