Tropical Storm Ophelia

[spinfan4eva]

Special Weather statement from Melbourne

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1240 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005

AMZ550-570-FLZ141-147-080630-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 20 NM-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1240 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005

...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE EDGING CLOSER TO THE
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...

AT 1230 AM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS ABOUT 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
PORT CANAVERAL...AND APPEARS TO BE RELOCATING WESTWARD A FEW
MILES CLOSER TO SHORE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO TO DETERMINE IF OPHELIA HAS RESUMED ANY PERSISTENT
MOVEMENT. CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY BEING
REDISTRIBUTED ABOUT ITS CENTER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS
CAUSED ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS TO APPROACH CLOSER TO THE NORTH BREVARD
COUNTY COAST WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS WERE LIKELY OCCURRING.

THROUGH 230 AM...SHOWER BANDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE VOLUSIA
AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTY COASTLINE TOWARD THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 25
TO 30 MPH. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH. RAIN AMOUNTS OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COAST MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF OPHELIA WILL BE
MONITORED TO ANY ADDITIONAL WESTWARD RELOCATION.

[deltadog03]

well, thats what we have been seeing...good call EVERYONE im waiting on the nhc 2am adv before heading to bed....its clearly on the move at the moment...last hour about 10nm...225 mean motion

[deltadog03]

anyone seen the 2am adv yet??

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA GETTING STRONGER AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION...INCLUDING SMALL LOOPS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... A GENERAL NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA
LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. RADAR AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND NOAA BUOY
41009 LOCATED JUST EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 36 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[SouthFloridawx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 080552
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA GETTING STRONGER AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION...INCLUDING SMALL LOOPS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... A GENERAL NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA
LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. RADAR AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND NOAA BUOY
41009 LOCATED JUST EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 36 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[SouthFloridawx]

check out this link to wunderground zoom in satelite. I forgot about that thing on the right side you can chose to check radar and that will superimpose the radar on the ir pic and you can even animate it. The CDO is now completely over the center.


http://www.wunderground.com/satellite/vis/1k/US.html

[tailgater]

OPHELIA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION...INCLUDING SMALL LOOPS...WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... A GENERAL NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Well if these small loops keep up she'll be on shore just north of Melborne latter TODAY

[Thunder44]

Statement as of 09:00Z on September 08, 2005



a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of
Florida from Cocoa Beach northward to Flagler Beach. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northeast Florida
coast from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach. A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area within the next 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in northern and central Florida...and the
southeastern United States coast should monitor the progress of
this system.

Tropical storm center located near 28.7n 79.5w at 08/0900z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement is stationary

estimated minimum central pressure 994 mb
Max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
50 kt....... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt....... 60ne 35se 35sw 40nw.
12 ft seas..160ne 40se 40sw 160nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 28.7n 79.5w at 08/0900z
at 08/0600z center was located near 28.7n 79.4w

forecast valid 08/1800z 29.0n 79.6w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 60ne 35se 35sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 09/0600z 29.4n 79.6w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 60ne 35se 35sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 09/1800z 29.9n 79.4w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 20sw 25nw.
34 kt... 70ne 60se 40sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 10/0600z 30.0n 79.1w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 80ne 70se 70sw 70nw.

Forecast valid 11/0600z 30.2n 78.5w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 35ne 25se 25sw 35nw.
34 kt... 90ne 80se 70sw 80nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 12/0600z 30.3n 78.0w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.

Outlook valid 13/0600z 30.0n 78.0w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 28.7n 79.5w

next advisory at 08/1500z

forecaster Stewart

[Thunder44]

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 08, 2005



aircraft recon flight-level winds of 61 kt and Melbourne WSR-88D
Doppler radar velocities of 60-64 kt between 6000-7000 ft support
increasing the initial intensity to 50 kt. However...recon data
just in indicates surface winds of 56 kt and a central pressure of
987 mb. If this new development persists...then a special advisory
will be issued to increase the intensity and lower the central
pressure.

The initial motion remains stationary. Ophelia is expected to
remain in weak steering flow for the next 3 to perhaps 5 days as
the low-level ridge to the north remains intact...while the
mid-level flow becomes more northwest and northerly...and the
upper-level flow remains southerly. The NHC model guidance is in
much better agreement on a sow northward motion through 48 hours
with a general eastward motion after that. The main question is how
far east will Ophelia go before it loops back to the west. The GFDL
is the farthest west model and moves the cyclone into southeast
Georgia in 96 hours...whereas the GFS is much faster and takes
Ophelia more than 500 nmi east of its current position. The rest of
the models are somewhere in between. The official track remains
slow and similar to the previous few forecasts and is to the left
of and slower than the NHC model consensus...which I feel has a
fast bias due to the much faster GFS model. The GFS performed
similarly during Hurricane Jeanne last year and had some very large
track errors.

Slow but steady intensification is forecast since Ophelia is
expected to remain over 29c and warmer SSTs and under light ot
moderate southerly upper-level shear through 96 hours. After that
...More strengthening than what is currently forecast could occur
since the shear is expected to drop below 10 kt. However...the
expected close proximity of very dry mid-level air precludes
increasing the intensity in the latter periods at this time.

All interests in North Florida and southeastern Georgia should
monitor the progress of this developing cyclone. Should Ophelia
strengthen faster and move closer to the coast than currently
forecast...a Hurricane Watch may be necessary sometime on Thursday.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 08/0900z 28.7n 79.5w 50 kt
12hr VT 08/1800z 29.0n 79.6w 55 kt
24hr VT 09/0600z 29.4n 79.6w 55 kt
36hr VT 09/1800z 29.9n 79.4w 60 kt
48hr VT 10/0600z 30.0n 79.1w 65 kt
72hr VT 11/0600z 30.2n 78.5w 65 kt
96hr VT 12/0600z 30.3n 78.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 13/0600z 30.0n 78.0w 70 kt

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 080919
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
518 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
DURING THE PAST HOUR...REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 987 MB...OR 29.15 INCHES...AND A SURFACE WIND OF 55 KT...OR 65
MPH. WHILE THESE DATA APPEAR TO BE GOOD...THEY ARE NOT BELIEVED TO
BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE OPHELIA. NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA SUGGEST THAT THIS
INFORMATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALLER-SCALE CIRCULATION THAT HAS
BEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LARGER CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE MOST RECENT DOPPLER RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATE THE SMALL-SCALE
CIRCULATION FEATURE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND NEW FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND DATA OF 62 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORTS THE 5 AM EDT
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT...OR 60 MPH.

FORECASTER STEWART

$

[cycloneye]

081143
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA BARELY MOVING...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A GENERALLY NORTHWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 25 MILES OF CAPE
CANAVERAL.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...28.7 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[NateFLA]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It appears to me that Oph has been huffing dry air over night, and that has been not-so-good for her health.

[ga_ben]

Is it just me or does Big O look like crap on sat this morning. No deep reds around the center. Whats up with her? On radar she looks as if she's wobbled her way to within striking distance of PC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[O Town]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

It appears to me that Oph has been huffing dry air over night, and that has been not-so-good for her health.

appears that way to me as well.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

It appears to me that Oph has been huffing dry air over night, and that has been not-so-good for her health.

appears that way to me as well.

She's getting ready to be Big Cane O

[Scorpion]

Looks to have fallen apart this morning....good news. Dry air is a savior sometimes.

[feederband]

now looks like a southern drift???

[cinlfla]

She's getting ready to be Big Cane O

I thought she looked kind of dried out this morning, but when I read the discussion from the nhc they are expecting her to slowly organize.

[NorthGaWeather]

Looks to have fallen apart this morning....good news. Dry air is a savior sometimes.

What are you watching? Looks ok to me.

[tracyswfla]

Someone please please tell me what is up with that Southerly drift??????