dwg71 wrote:I noticed that as well. The ridge is there and it is not letting anybody in yet. Many were saying how the ridge was moving west, these models are having the ridge move out NE. If it doesnt move, Rita will go have ritas, if you know what I mean...
Time will tell..
But if it stays south below 24 and keeps forward speed, the models will shift southward towards tx mex border.
I think you're right, dwg71--it looks like it's going south of the last forecast point, and will probably miss the following one at least too. As it gets stronger, it may start causing the high to its north to build more than the models say, and so it may take a more southerly track, but landfall really depends on the eventual breakdown of that high. The storm might stay further south in the short run, but it could then take an almost northerly track like the latest ECMWF run is showing. The general trend over the last 48 hours has been to have a stronger and stronger trough entering the area in the latter part of the period, so if that holds, then we might just be looking at a much sharper turn, and with sharp turns comes a greater amount of uncertainty unfortunately. We will have to just wait and see, but for the time being, having all of the global models targeted within 100 miles of the Greater Houston area, one should be moderately concerned in this vicinity. The models could shift more but they might then shift right back too. -vaffie
CRAP !!
