Tropical Storm Alberto

[rockyman]

System is now at the longitude of Mobile/Gulf shores...about 1.5 degrees further west than was forecast at 5pm yesterday.

[StJoe]

I noticed some of the models have it stalling and doing some weird things in a couple of days.................

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

Yea...they're doing some wierd things now. Numerous models have him stalling. It's going to be a tough decision at the NHC as to whether to move the track or not.

IMHO: if it stalls like the models are showing, i think it will head straight into SW Florida, with the shearing blasting it from the NW side.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I noticed some of the models have it stalling and doing some weird things in a couple of days.................

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

Yea...they're doing some wierd things now. Numerous models have him stalling. It's going to be a tough decision at the NHC as to whether to move the track or not.

The NHC said in the 5am discussion that they may have to completely change their track if this westward trend continues.

[skysummit]

I noticed some of the models have it stalling and doing some weird things in a couple of days.................

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

Yea...they're doing some wierd things now. Numerous models have him stalling. It's going to be a tough decision at the NHC as to whether to move the track or not.

IMHO: if it stalls like the models are showing, i think it will head straight into SW Florida, with the shearing blasting it from the NW side.

The shear won't stear this system. The LLC is being pushed by the lower llevels.

[Bgator]

I noticed some of the models have it stalling and doing some weird things in a couple of days.................

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

Yea...they're doing some wierd things now. Numerous models have him stalling. It's going to be a tough decision at the NHC as to whether to move the track or not.

IMHO: if it stalls like the models are showing, i think it will head straight into SW Florida, with the shearing blasting it from the NW side.

The shear won't stear this system. The LLC is being pushed by the lower llevels.

What happens if the system stalls, witll it go more south due to the trough picking it up more sout, it is far enough north for the trought o pick it up when it gets here...

[CHRISTY]

Guys we now have 2005-2006 with june systens!!!its been a while last time this happened was 1996-1997.i really hope this is not a sign of things to come this year.i will say this... 2006 has started the same 2005 did.we will see what happens in the coming months. chrisy

[ronjon]

Checking the last 3-4 hrs of SAT loops, the LLC is essentially stationary. Its drifting around without a definite path. Be interesting to see what NHC does at the 11 AM advisory.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

[28_Storms]

Climatogy says one can expect a storm in June every other year on average. But with the conditions very similar to 2005 it looks to be another very busy and long year.

[28_Storms]

I agree ronjon.

[Stratosphere747]

They *NHC* clearly hinted at the possible scenarios in the 5am disco.

[wzrgirl1]

What does a 50 kt. flight level wind translate to at the surface?

[Ivanhater]

System is now at the longitude of Mobile/Gulf shores...about 1.5 degrees further west than was forecast at 5pm yesterday.

wow, ok I just woke up, What the heck is going on

[28_Storms]

ivanhater - we have our first named storm of the season and the track might have a dramatic change!

[Ivanhater]

ivanhater - we have our first named storm of the season and the track might have a dramatic change!

wow, I have some catching up to do!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Checking the last 3-4 hrs of SAT loops, the LLC is essentially stationary. Its drifting around without a definite path. Be interesting to see what NHC does at the 11 AM advisory.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

yeah, it looks like a very slow NW drift from that loop. I agree, it will be very interesting to see the 11am advisory.

[HURAKAN]

What does a 50 kt. flight level wind translate to at the surface?

About 37.5 knots or 43.2 mph.

[Weatherfreak14]

yeah I thought so on that. I wonder any more strnthening is possible before landfall.

[jusforsean]

o.k. i am only on my 2nd cup of coffee and trying to figure this out: Channel 10 news just said that is is staying on the nhc track into n florida on schedule. now here the scenario looks like we are in for a change? just curious what on the model plot link shows that it will stall? I am still learning how to read these things. And if it does what will the "new" track look like? I am very curious to see the new advisory at 11am. I really think the news stations should log on to storm2k before they do thier forcasts!!!

[wzrgirl1]

o.k. i am only on my 2nd cup of coffee and trying to figure this out: Channel 10 news just said that is is staying on the nhc track into n florida on schedule. now here the scenario looks like we are in for a change? just curious what on the model plot link shows that it will stall? I am still learning how to read these things. And if it does what will the "new" track look like? I am very curious to see the new advisory at 11am. I really think the news stations should log on to storm2k before they do thier forcasts!!!

if you asked me.....channel 10 has lost their credibility a long time ago...they make statements that give south florida a false sense of security.....we were discussing this yesterday

[Weatherfreak14]

lot of them shows a stall http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html